Everyone (well, basically everyone) who plays NFL Best Ball has at least a basic knowledge and understanding of the concept and benefits of correlation. Over the last few years as the Best Ball industry, contests, and content providers have grown, you could even make the argument that the pendulum has swung too far and correlations are often overvalued by the “field”. Not to say that your traditional correlations don’t have value, but there is a clear and very large effect on ADP based on drafters attempting to correlate their rosters, and at a certain point, that has to go too far.
While most people think of correlations through a more traditional lens – team stacks built around an entire offense, game stacks of teams who face each other in Week 17 (specifically for playoff-format contests), and QB/pass-catcher correlations like we love in DFS – there is another level to this which I think is probably far more valuable for us as we try to build teams with elite advancement rates in playoff format contests and high-upside season-long outlooks in cumulative scoring contests. In the same mindset as my “Storyboard” series, these Overlooked Correlations involve players whose “stories” of how they reach their maximum potential in 2025 are similar and correlated.
A.J. Brown + Will Shipley
A.J. Brown joined the Eagles in 2022 and he was the WR5 in each of his first two seasons with the team. Then, in 2024, the Eagles acquired Saquon Barkley and the makeup of their offense changed dramatically. With their elite offensive line, arguably the best RB in the game, and the incredible efficiency of the “Tush Push”, the Eagles leaned heavily on their running game and dominated most of their opponents en route to a Super Bowl victory. All of those dynamics led to Brown having a disappointing individual season, finishing as the WR20 overall and WR13 in points per game. That down year correlated with his highest ADP of his career, as he was a consensus top-10 pick in basically every format. This year, Brown is a mid-second-round pick as teams adjust to the seemingly new reality of the Eagles offense.
However, what is the story where Brown returns to being a top-five WR? Well, quite simply it would likely involve Barkley missing a large portion of the season due to injury. Remove Barkley from the Eagles, and they would almost certainly have to pass more and rely on Brown’s elite talent to carry them. If that were to happen, Will Shipley is clearly the second RB in Philadelphia this season and his value would skyrocket from his current ADP around the 15th/16th round. Some people look to handcuff their RBs and would pair Barkley with Shipley, others look to stack their WRs and would try to get Hurts with Brown (which is also viable here)…..for me, perhaps the most clear (and cheapest) beneficiary of Brown having a monster season would be Shipley. The price is right here.
Brian Thomas Jr. + Dyami Brown + Brenton Strange
