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Sunday, Jan 25th — Early
Patriots 23.5
Broncos 18
Sunday, Jan 25th — Late
Rams 22.5
Hawks 25

One Week Stats 6.25

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB
  • Sam Darnold was the hero of the Week 5 edition of One Week Stats, going off for 30 DK points at just 3% ownership, leading to a take down of the “Spin-Move,” Single-Entry GPP on DK (despite the dud from Chris Godwin, sorry about that one)! Darnold won’t be under the radar this week, but regardless, he’s back in my player pool. He’s posted a 75% completion rate and a 114.8 QB Rating against zone coverage. Jacksonville runs zone on 69.6% of defensive snaps (5th-highest rate) and just allowed Patrick Mahomes to complete 81% of his passes against their zone looks. Darnold also ranks 1st in Adjusted Net Yards per attempt (ANY/A) over his last three games, averaging over 10.0 ANY/A. JAX has allowed the 5th-highest percentage of total yards to come through the air and is giving up 22 fantasy points per game to QBs.
  • Last week, LAC tried to run it after getting an early lead (45% neutral pass rate). They also operated slowly (5th-slowest team in neutral), which led to just twenty-nine Justin Herbert dropbacks (after averaging 44 in his previous two games). Even with that, LAC still ranks 2nd in neutral pass rate (63%) and 5th in fastest neutral pace. LAC lost Omarian Hampton (after already losing Najee Harris) and has now dropped two straight after starting 3-0. All of this points to them leaning heavily on their franchise QB in a strong matchup against MIA’s secondary. MIA allowed only 14 FP to Bryce Young last week (while giving up 200+ rushing yards to Rico Dowdle), yet still ranks 3rd in FP allowed to QBs (69% completion rate allowed, 31st).  Expect quick releases and a lot of short completions to his WRs with LAC’s offensive line issues, which could give us an opportunity in the prop market with his attempts and completions. You can also bet Quentin Johnston & Ladd McConkey OVER 4.5 receptions, which correlates well with Herbert props. MIA has allowed a 106 passer rating in coverage this season. 
  • With Herbert projected to be the highest-owned QB on the slate, one way to gain leverage in (large-field) GPPs could be through Tua Tagovailoa. LAC is not a great matchup in terms of pressure rate (11th best pressure %), but some stats offer hope. They allowed the highest explosive play rate in Week 5, giving up a 20+ yard pass or 10+ yard run on 18.5% of plays (8.8 YPA allowed). Over the last three games, they’ve allowed the 8th-highest explosive play rate overall. If we expect Herbert and LAC to score points through the air, this could easily turn into a positive game environment, boosting Tua’s ceiling. Tua is averaging 19.1 FP/g at home this season and 18 DK points/pg in his last 18 home starts (263 passing yards, 1.9 TDs). He’s also easy to stack with Tyreek Hill on IR; the targets have become very condensed.
  • Over SF’s last seven games, Brock Purdy (24.5 FP) and Mac Jones (20.1 FP) have averaged 23 FP/g. SF can’t run the ball this season (31st YPC, 32nd in rush yards %), which has them 1st in pass attempts per game. In addition, TB has the 5th highest pass yards % against and allows the 3rd most FP to QBs (last 3). TB plays a high rate of zone coverage (63%, while allowing a 100 passer rating and 5 TD passes in zone/2nd), and Jones has completed 68% of his attempts for 582 passing yards against zone (last three games). 
  • I will also be playing the other side of this game with Baker Mayfield, who continues to be underowned in DFS (7% projection) despite being the QB5 for the season after finishing as the QB5 in 2024. With Bucky Irving out again, it should be the Baker show again (63% neutral pass rate in week 5 after 52% weeks 1-4). Mayfield has thrived against zone coverage (2nd in passer rating vs. zone) and SF plays a high rate of zone (68%, 8th), while allowing opponents a 7.05 YPA (10th). 

Player Grids🚨

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RB
  • CIN has allowed 149.7 rushing yards on 32 attempts per game in Jake Browning’s three starts (35 FP/g to RBs, 1st). Opponents don’t respect the CIN offense, so they know they can pound this Bengals rush defense (50% rush rate against, 3rd over the last three games). Green Bay has averaged 30.7 rush attempts in their last three games, even while playing in a shootout before their bye, consistent with their 30 attempts per game average in 2024. Josh Jacobs (2nd in RB touch share) has averaged 19.1 FP/g in 14 starts with Green Bay as a favorite, 5 FP/g better than in games as an underdog. He is my RB1 on the slate with price factored in. 
  • TEN has allowed the highest % of rush TDs to be scored against them, which has them 32nd in FP/g allowed to backs (35.87 FP/g over their last three games). Geno Smith leads the league with 9 INTs, so I would expect LV to ride their first round rookie RB as a home favorite. This is a similar setup to the Bears game, where Ashton Jeanty racked up 23 touches for 153 total yards and 3 TDs. TEN has allowed a league-worst two rushing TDs per game this season (Jeanty has 100% of LV rush attempts inside the 10-yard line). This is such a great spot for Jeanty, you would expect him to be the chalk, but with so many RBs to play, his ownership should stay below 15%. 
  • Quinshon Judkins is being used as a true RB1, averaging 20.6 rush attempts and handling 40% of his team’s total touches since taking over as the starter, 3rd behind only CMC and Jacobs. He’s recorded 162 yards after contact (2nd over that three game span) while averaging 18.3 DK points per game, despite having 70 yards and a TD wiped out by penalties. Like Jeanty, this kind of usage and price would normally lead to high-end chalk, but with so many backs on the slate, he should come in around 10–12%.
WR
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba should come in at roughly half the ownership of Puka Nacua and offers a significant $1.1K discount. He trails Nacua by just 0.2 FP/route run (0.79 FP/route run). For context, Nacua led this stat in 2024 at 0.75 FP/route run. He is also first in Yards per Target among all players with 15+ targets. JAX plays zone coverage at the 5th-highest rate, and JSN thrives against it, averaging 2.35 yards of separation (3rd). With SEA allowing the 2nd-highest and JAX the 5th-highest percentage of passing yards, JSN should be in line for another 20+ FP performance (four of his last five games with 20+ FP).
  • Calvin Ridley is the poster boy for StatRankings’ new metric, UnCatchable Air Yards (aka “Prayer Yards”) after leading the league with 947 Prayer Yards last season. Things are trending in the right direction for the enigmatic Ridley, who opened the season averaging 2.5–35–0 over his first four games. For one, he now ranks third in Prayer Yards on his own team, behind Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike. He still wasn’t ultra-efficient (50% catch rate), but he produced 131 yards on 13 yards per target. Ridley remains under $5K on DraftKings, putting him in that WR3 sweet spot for GPP lineups where you should be hunting for upside/high-ceiling plays. Ridley sees 0.32 targets per route run vs. zone coverage, compared to 0.18 vs. man. That sets up well this week, as LV plays the 2nd-highest rate of zone coverage. Ridley moves all over the formation, running 30% of his routes from LWR, which will put him in front of CB Kyu Blu Kelly, who is allowing 14.7 FP/g in coverage over his last three games (2nd most). He allows 2 FP per target in coverage.
  • Calvin Austin III has been operating as the WR2 for PIT, 2nd in route participation and target share, and while that has not mattered for fantasy (9 FP/g), it could matter for DK Metcalf, who simply needs more targets. (5.5 targets per game). Metcalf is averaging 2.69 Fantasy Points per target, which is elite per-target production (for context, JSN averages 2.31 FP/target). CLE remains tough against the run (2nd fewest FP allowed to RBs), which has led to 69.5% of yards to be gained via the pass. They allow 33 FP/g to WRs after a season-high 44 to MIN last week. Given that DK is the only viable NFL WR on the team, he has a chance to see more volume, which is all we need at his low price and projected ownership. 
  • Ryan Flournoy had a 68% route participation last week with CeeDee Lamb & Kevonte Turpin out, running 40% of his routes from the slot. Per Player Profiler, Flournoy ranked 14th in this draft class in their “Athleticism Score,” so this is not your typical replacement player. He had a 31% true target share, posting 6-114-0 (9 targets) along with two rush attempts. Considering DAL controlled this game, Dak Prescott only dropped back 29 times, 11 below his season average. If CAR can get a lead or at least keep it close, we should see Dak closer to the 35-38 attempts range, which can only be good for the $3.6K Flournoy.
TE
  • Tucker Kraft (2nd in yards per target among all TEs) leads GB pass catchers with a 90% route participation, though that’s only translated to about 5 targets per game (GB averages 30 passes per game). With Jayden Reed still out, targets should stay more condensed, giving Kraft a clearer path to volume in one of the best matchups on the slate. He’s averaged 8.6 FP/g across three low-output games (non-consecutive) but also flashed a 27.4-point ceiling earlier this season. Despite running into (very) bad TD luck in his most recent game vs DAL, Kraft still ranks as the TE3 in FP/g on this main slate. With a projected 14-point spread that could push GB into a lower pass rate (for an already low-volume passing team), he ranks fourth among TEs this week. That said, he carries one of the biggest ceilings for GPPs on the slate. The Bengals don’t seem to care about tight ends. They allowed the second most FP to TEs in 2023, first in 2024, and are back at it in 2025, giving up a league-high 18.56 FP/g to the position on DraftKings.
  • I like to hunt for touchdowns on (.5 PPR) FanDuel, which has me looking at Hunter Henry this week in my Drake Maye stacks. Henry has five targets inside the 10-yard line, which puts him in elite company, second behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian McCaffrey, and Davante Adams. All other New England pass catchers have a combined five targets inside the 10-yard line. The Saints got shredded by Giants TEs last week and now rank 5th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Henry leads the team in Route Participation, is second in target share (behind Stefon Diggs), and is tied with the WR lead in first-read target share. Disclosure: I am also playing him on DraftKings (less expensive in terms of % of cap), but wanted to emphasize the red-zone rate and how that applies to FanDuel.