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One Week Stats 3.25

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB
  • Jake Browning will start for Joe Burrow for the eighth time on Sunday against MIN. In his previous nine games playing more than a 50% snap rate, he is averaging 263 passing yards on 32.5 pass attempts per game for 18.7 FP/g. That includes last week when he threw for 251 yards and 2 TDs on 80% of the snaps. Here is how the primary pass-catchers have performed with Browning under center: 
    • Joe Mixon (RB in 2023 for the majority of Browning’s snaps) averaged 18 FP/g (seven games), a +1.75 point increase from his 26 games with Burrow. He caught three balls per game for 27 yards, also a boost from his per-game averages with Burrow.
    • Ja’Marr Chase has seen a slight decline with Browning, despite catching 10-of-11 targets last week after Burrow left. His yards have dropped from 91 to 78 p/g, but it’s his TD rate that has affected his overall production (-27%). He caught 10 of 11 targets for 128 yards after Browning entered the game.
    • Tee Higgins has seen the biggest fall off with Browning, as you would expect for the WR2. His targets per game drop by 33%, and while that hasn’t affected his fantasy production as much (-11%), that is due to a higher TD rate in that small sample size. I would expect that to normalize with Chase’s lower TD rate (with Browning) as the sample increases this season.  
  • Jayden Daniels is also OUT, which requires us to look at $4K Marcus Mariota in a revenge matchup with the Raiders. He came in for Daniels last year in Week 7, playing 87% of the snaps in a plus matchup against CAR. He completed 18-of-23 passes for 205 yards and two TD passes, along with 34 rush yards (19.6 FP/g). He then entered for Daniels in Week 18 (although it’s hard to trust Week 18 stats, I will provide them anyway) and posted another “Daniels-like” performance (161 passing yards, 56 rush yards, 3 total TDs). This game grades well from a pace & play-calling perspective, with both teams in the top-12 in overall pace and neutral pass rate (LV is 4th and WAS 7th in pass rate over expectation, per Kevin Cole). Las Vegas has allowed 18.3 DK points per game to Justin Herbert and Drake Maye in their first two games, despite Herbert only attempting 27 passes last week (LV has allowed 78% of their yards against the pass, 3rd-highest).
  • Caleb Williams is the classic “real football” vs. “fantasy asset” example once again this season, as he can be a tough watch, ranking 29th in Accuracy Percentage. That compared to being the QB6 on the DK Main Slate in terms of Fantasy Points per game (21.1 FP/g), while being the 12th most expensive ($5.6K). That should make him very popular on a slate full of backup QBs and without many “stackable” games. The data checks out on the matchup: after getting embarrassed by Russell Wilson last week (450 yards, 3 TDs) and run all over by Jalen Hurts in Week 1 (14-62-2), Dallas is allowing the 2nd most FP/g to QBs (8.32 yards per pass attempt/29th). Williams is 8th in rushing attempts among QBs (5.5 per game), averaging 4.25 FP/g from rushing yards alone (excluding his rush TDs, as they are not as predictive).
RB
  • Jonathan Taylor is leading all Colts players with an 89% route participation. That puts him 2nd among all RBs and an absolute smash play at $7.2K on DK. The one argument against him in the past (on the full PPR site) was a low route participation and target share (54% in 2023, 69.8% in 2024), if he is going to be among the lead leaders in routes, the catches and receiving yards will follow, which combined with his elite rushing production will have him priced up with CMC and Saquon. He is averaging a ridiculous 4.33 yards after contact per carry (1st among RBs with 12 or more carries). TEN is allowing 24 FP/g to opposing backs on 142 rush yards per game (5.3 yards per carry to RBs), setting up JT for yet another 100+ yard rushing performance (6 in his last 10 games leads all players). 
  • Chase Brown has struggled to start the season, with CIN’s offensive line ranked 31st in adjusted line yards gained (per FTN Data). I don’t think the blame can be put on him. He is averaging 2.43 yards per carry on 2.43 yards after contact. MIN has been tough on opposing QBs (5.02 yards per pass attempt/5th), while allowing solid production to backs (5.06 yards per rush attempt/26th). They have allowed the 2nd-highest Percentage of Rush Yards Gained Against (51.4%/31st). All that said, I need his price to adjust before rolling him back out in any high-dollar lineup. With Browning under center, and this offensive line playing so poorly, I can’t play him when JT is only $300 more. 
  • I wrote up J.K. Dobbins last week, and no one seemed to care. His ownership was non-existent as he led Denver again with 14 carries (76 yards and a TD). Now, in a revenge game, he is projected to be 1-2% owned again. After facing KC and LV, I don’t think we should assume this LAC rush defense is a unit to stay away from, especially while missing Khalil Mack (LAC allowed RBs 4.61 yards per carry last season/24th). Dobbins is 4th among qualified RBs in fantasy points per rush attempt.
  • Another staple of this article so far has been Travis Etienne (10% breakaway rush rate, 2nd), who has another great matchup against the HOU rush defense that just got gashed for 169 yards by TB (HOU, 32nd in adjusted line yards allowed, per FTN Data). I wasn’t planning on writing him up again, but I had to throw this in when I saw he is projected to be around 3% on DraftKings. 
WR
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters Week 3 with ELITE usage (.44 targets per route run/1st), which is not reflected in his price. This should make him very popular, which should not scare you off. While at FTN Daily, our DFS projections expert (Alex Blickle) did extensive ownership data back-testing, which revealed “chalk WRs,” especially those in this mid-price range, tend to hit (and smash) at an above-average rate. Per Alex, “Mega chalk WRs (usually $6K and up with 30%+ ownership) smash at the highest rate and fail at the lowest rate of all DFS plays. WR is the only position where this phenomenon occurs — where the highest ownership does equate to the highest likelihood of success.”
  • Deebo Samuel enters as the WR7 on the DK Main Slate (20 FP/g). He is 11th in Receiver Target Separation  (2.39 yards of separation per target), which is significantly better than Terry McLaurin (.54 yards of separation per target). Deebo has consistently feasted on zone coverage, leading SF WRs in that stat over the years, which makes this a great matchup for him (LV is 2nd in zone coverage rate this season). He has a team-leading 35% target rate against zone coverage and averages 2.55 yards per route run against zone in his first two games with WAS. With his star QB on the bench, his ownership should be minuscule. He should also see a rushing boost from the loss of Austin Ekeler and Jayden Daniels.
  • Keenan Allen is one of the most mis-priced players on DK this week at $4.7K. His ownership will be around 15-20%, which is very reasonable considering his usage. Allen is 17th in target share (28%), averaging 8.5 targets per game, and running 50% of his routes from the slot, which will allow him to avoid Patrick Surtain. In addition, if Surtain does shadow a player as he did in Week 1 with Calvin Ridley, my assumption is that he will go to the red-hot Quentin Johnson on the outside or the “alpha” Ladd McConkey, which could allow Allen to see very little of Surtain in coverage. LAC is 1st and DEN 5th in PROE after two weeks, giving this game sneaky shootout potential 
TE
  • Juwan Johnson deserves another week in the article after doubling down on his Week 1 TE1 usage (5-49-1 in Week 2 with a 95% route participation rate). He lands in the best matchup of the season with SEA, allowing 8-64-0 to PIT TEs after 8-44-2 in Week 1 to SF. Johnson leads the team (tied with Chris Olave) with a 15% first-read target share, 2nd in overall target share, and 1st in RZ target rate.
  • Kyle Pitts is 2nd on ATL with a 20% target share and has a healthy 88% route participation this season, up from 78% in 2024. He is 8th in WOPR (weighted opportunity rating) among all TEs after converting his first 11-of-13 targets from Michael Penix this season. That has him averaging 10.3 FP/g on DK without the benefit of a TD. CAR has been beat up by TEs out of the gate, allowing 6.5 receptions, 94 rec. yards, and .05 TDs per game (3rd most FP).