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One Week Stats 2.25

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB
  • Justin Fields led all QBs with ten designed runs in week 1. He only averaged 3.7 yards per carry, but the volume stands out. Last season, Jalen Hurts led the league with 6.3 designed rush attempts per game. In addition, the BUF defense looked slow on SNF, allowing Lamar Jackson 10.2 yards per carry on 5 designed runs. Jackson had five runs of 10+ yards on his way to a league-leading 70 rush yards by a QB.
  • “Josh Allen is going to run less this season.” We have heard this now for the past couple of seasons, which has led to 32 rush TDs, the most in the league for any player (Derrick Henry had 31). He was at it again in week one, handling 6-of-8 carries inside the 10-yard line for two rushing TDs. He had another 3 QB sneaks, a stat he finished 2nd in 2024 (1.5 QB sneaks per game). With his best group of pass-catchers of his career and continued aggressiveness on the ground, Allen should be set up for another big day against the Jets (allowed Aaron Rodgers 8.1 YPA and 4 TDs in Week 1). 
  • Over his last 19 home games with CeeDee Lamb on the field, Dak Prescott is averaging 282.9 passing yards per game, +50 yards more than his road average. Over the past two seasons, he’s been just an average QB on the road (16.7 FP/g), while being a true “QB1” at home (20.4 FP/g). The Week 1 matchup lines up well with NYG ranked 27th in pressure rate, while DAL finished 4th in pressure rate allowed on the road in Philly. In his last three home starts against the G-Men, Dak has averaged 322 passing yards and 3 TDs (25 FP/g). In addition, NYG put LB Micah McFadden on IR (10th best pass rush grade in 2024, per PFF). 
  • Jalen Hurts has played in 14 games without TE Dallas Goedert (OUT this week vs. KC), averaging 10.8 rush attempts, 55 rushing yards, and 1.3 rushing TDs per game. That puts him at 26.7 fantasy points per game, a 23% increase from his already strong 21.6 FP/game with Goedert. He’s also delivered some of his best production against KC, averaging a ridiculous 30.6 FP/g, his highest per-game average against any team with multiple starts. Last week, Hurts led the league with 9 scrambles, averaging 7 yards per carry on those runs.
RB
  • Christian McCaffrey was one of eleven players with 10+ targets in week one (.34 targets per route run). This was fueled by George Kittle and Juwan Jennings leaving the game with injuries (Brandon Aiyuk already on IR). In Week 2, Kittle has been ruled out, and Jennings is looking doubtful. That puts CMC back in the role of the 49ers #1 receiving option along side Ricky Pearsall, and while this is a DFS article, I could not pass up on the opportunity to tell you to join me in betting CMC’s receptions prop (OVER 4.5, -115 at MGM, good up to -130). In Mac Jones’ last six starts for JAX in 2024, he averaged 5.4 completions per game to RBs. In addition, LT Trent Williams is OUT for SF, which should lead to more pressure and (hopefully) lots of checkdowns to CMC (AZ RBs caught 5-of-5 targets in week one vs. NO).
  • Travis Etienne Jr. (18th in RB opportunity share) helped me to a profitable week one. He was 4th in FP per rush among backs with 10+ rush attempts and trailed only King Henry in runs of 10+ yards with four. He then got an off-the-field boost when Tank Bigsby was traded to PHI. Still, the public is not buying in with ETN projected to be just 7.7% owned on the DK main slate. This despite being in a much better game environment with the highest total on the slate (49.5) and CIN just allowing 25.1 FP to CLE RBs via 9 receptions (on 9 targets). This after allowing RBs to convert on 87% of their targets last season (7.85 FP/g via the pass). Last week, Etienne ran 16 routes (3 targets), Bigsby 7 (no targets), and LeQuint Allen Jr.  8 routes (1 target), with Bhayshul Tuten not running a route. As a 3.5 road dog, I would expect Etienne to be involved in the passing attack once again (I am also betting his receiving props). 
  • J.K. Dobbins led DEN with a 74.4% RB Rush Share, seeing 16 rush attempts compared to 6 attempts for rookie JK Harvey. He also ran more routes (16 to 14) and caught both of his targets and handled 100% of the redzone work. Despite all that, he is projected at just 1.4% ownership against an IND team that allowed 1 FP per touch to MIA RBs last week (MIA had the fewest RB touches in week one). 
WR
  • Former LSU standouts, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers both finished in the bottom-7 in catchable target rate (42%), with BTJ only catching 1-of-7 targets from Trevor Lawrence. That was the first time in seven games Thomas did not see 10 targets. For some perspective, Puka Nucua had a 91% catchable target rate in week one (10-of-11 targets deemed catchable). CIN allowed Joe Flacco to complete 67% of his passes last week, so I expect Thomas to bounce back at a significantly lower ownership % than last week, which has me loading back up on him in tournaments (2nd in unrealized air yards). 
    • On the missed connections in Week 1 to Thomas Jr., head coach Liam Coen was quoted: “We tried to get him a touch early… threw him a screen low… missed him on an in-breaker… missed him on a corner… and one on the sideline. That’s five catches right there to get him into the flow.” He also said he “fully anticipate[s] him being able to get going”, to get him involved early and at “every level,” aligning him inside/outside and using screens, seams, middle-of-field and deep shots to leverage his speed. 
  • DeVonta Smith sees his fantasy points per game production increase by 26% with Dallas Goedert OUT. He has come along for the ride with Hurts going off in these matchups with KC, averaging 6 receptions for 97 yards (17.7 FP/g). He ran 78% of his routes from the slot last week, up from 55% last season. I have wanted to see more slot snaps from Smith since he got to PHI, so his Week 1 usage is encouraging. KC got destroyed last week by slot pass catchers, allowing Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, and Ladd McConkey to combine for 8-110-1 from the slot. 
  • Cedric Tillman was terribly mispriced last week on FanDuel ($4.7K, 2% owned). He got a $700 bump on FD, but somehow went down $100 on DK, this despite being first (tied with teammate Jerry Juedy) with 45 routes run (5-52-1). He did this on eight targets in a game script that did not play out like we hoped (33 combined points scored), but gets another chance this week as a 12-point road dog in BAL. In his only matchup vs. BAL last season Tillman went off for 7-99-2.
  • Elic Ayomanor was 8th in yards, 12th in air yards percentage, 1st in unrealized air yards, and 7th in first-read target share. Cam Ward struggled in his first road start against a tough DEN defense (35% completion rate against), so it should only improve from here. LAR allowed CJ Stroud to complete 63% of his passes in week one, and while I expect the usage to flow back to Calvin Ridley now that he is free of Patrick Surtain, I still thought the rookie’s usage was worth noting while is price is just $3.2K on DK (3% projected ownership). 
TE
  • Tyler Warren looked like a true “Alpha TE” in week one. Despite landing in a blowout that led to IND completely shut down the passing attack in the 2nd half (7 second half pass attempts), Warren still tied all TEs with a McBride with a 20.7% first read target share, leading the Colts with 9 targets (7-76-0). However, this only led to a $100 price increase on DK, likely due to the tough matchup with DEN. That also has his ownership lower than it should (6-10%), which has me back on him in week two. 
  • Juwan Johnson has been a staple at the end of my best ball rosters for seemingly every year Underdog has been around, so I was thrilled to see him go nuclear in week one despite completely missing on him in DFS (8-76-0 on 11 targets). Now we need to decide how “sticky” this is for week 2, where he is still going to be under 10% owned. Johnson was 2nd among all TEs in routes run, 4th in “TE first read target share” behind only Bowers, McBride, and Warren, seeing a target on 25% of Spencer Rattler’s league high 46 week one pass attempts (tied with Allen and Drake Maye). Another reason this should carry over is the offensive scheme deployed by new head coach Kellen Moore, who led NO to the fastest pace in week one (69 offensive plays, 7th most).