Mike’s DK Player Grid 10.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• Rico Dowdle – Elite matchup and game script as the Panthers are likely to be able to impose their will on the Saints. The backfield is officially his now, and it is hard to argue with 30+ points in all three of his starts.
• Christian McCaffrey – CMC struggled against the Texans elite defense last week, but has 23+ DK points in every other game this season and should be plenty active this week in a potential shootout.
• De’Von Achane – The matchup is terrific here and Achane’s ability as both a runner and receiver should be heavily utilized as the Dolphins work to keep pace with Josh Allen and the Bills.
• Bears RB – D’Andre Swift is apparently back healthy after a full practice on Thursday, but a personal issue puts his status for Sunday in question now. The Giants run defense has been awful in recent weeks and the Bears running game has been dominant since their Week 5 bye. This article is posted on Friday evening, so will have to wait to see how things play out, but I fully expect the Bears backfield to produce a lot of points in this matchup which means Monangai would be a smash play once again if Swift misses, while both Monangai and Swift would be elite GPP options if he plays.
• Kyren Williams – Elite game environment and modest price tag. Smashed the 49ers the first time around and no Fred Warner this time. 

The five players/situations listed above stand out to me above everything else this week at the running back position. There are a lot of other intriguing options, but in the spirit of recent focus on narrowing down a player pool I think it is important to not try to play all of these guys. I will probably end up with exposure in my large-field MME play to 2 to 4 players from the below, while X-ing out the rest. I would recommend you do the same and accept that you might miss on someone.

• James Cook – Smashed the Dolphins the first time and set up for another solid game. I am somewhat worried about the Bills playing it smart with Cook and limiting him, especially since they play on Thursday of Week 12 (which means he will play two games in 5 days at that point).
• DET RBs – Similar to Cook, this is a spot that I expect there to be success from but it is hard for me to wrap my head around how to play it. It feels like Gibbs scoring 20 and Monty getting a touchdown and scoring 15 could easily be a way this plays out.
• Derrick Henry – The matchup isn’t great, but we know Henry can go off for 30+ points with Lamar on the field. 
• Quinshon Judkins – Hard for me to leave him off against a Jets defense that lost their two best players. Judkins has a very clear path to ceiling, but I will probably get most of my exposure to him on Fanduel.
• TreVeyon Henderson – Henderson logged a 75% snap share last week and should get the chance to do the same this week against the Bucs pass funnel defense that theoretically could play to his skill set (outside runs and screens/short passes). Similar to Judkins, his salary is much better on Fanduel.

Tight End ::

• George Kittle – We saw last week from Brock Bowers how a tight end with an elite skill set and talent can completely change a slate. Kittle is fully healthy but hasn’t been featured in the passing game since his return. I think this week that changes and he has slate-breaking potential.
• Hunter Henry – I know I won’t be alone here, and that is alright. Henry is only $3,500 and scored 29 DK points in a game earlier this year. The Bucs are a pass funnel matchup that should result in elevated pass attempts.
• David Njoku – This one is specifically appealing if Harold Fannin Jr. is unable to play, but I think Njoku is talented and cheap enough to make sense either way.
• Colston Loveland – Cole Kmet should be back, but the genie is out of the bottle. I don’t think you can take this guy off the field after what he did last week.

Defense :: 

• Lions – Detroit’s aggressive defense should get to tee off on a depleted Commanders offense and have plenty of opportunities to force mistakes.
• Panthers – The Carolina defense has actually been very solid this season with a couple of exceptions where strong offenses got the best of them. At home against a reeling Saints team is a spot where I like their chances.
• Browns – Cleveland is an elite defense from a talent perspective and should be playing from a positive game script as they are likely to be able to score points against the barren Jets defense. Justin Fields takes a ton of sacks and Myles Garrett is on the other side of this one.
• Cardinals – If looking to spend down on a defense, Arizona is my preferred option. They are playing well and the matchup with Seattle is not as bad as it first appears. 

Premium Passing Game Stacks

new england patriots (tb)

The Patriots passing game has been elite this season as Drake Maye ascends into the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the league. This week, they face a Bucs defense that has been a pass funnel for quite a while and the Patriots will be without RB Rhamondre Stevenson. That leaves explosive rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson as their lead back. Henderson is more of a space back and his skill set, along with the matchup, could lead to an extreme pass rate for the Patriots with all of their skill players at modest salaries. WR Kayshon Boutte is also going to miss this game, which should condense a receiving corps that has been difficult to predict this season.

detroit lions (was)

The Lions offense could be in the perfect storm, facing a depleted defense that ranks 30th in the league in yards per play allowed (above only the Bears and Bengals). The Lions offense ranks 8th in yards per play this season, but in the three games they played against below-average defenses (CHI, BAL, CIN), they average 7.1 yards per play. This is significantly more than the #1 team in the league (IND at 6.3).  Detroit is coming off an ugly loss to the Vikings and is facing the team that ended last season for them. If the Lions get out ahead in this one, the gloves will come off. Jared Goff needs to get back on track and the matchup here is pristine. The Commanders have only managed 52 plays per game in Marcus Mariota’s three starts, while their opponents have averaged 65 plays in those games. Detroit only averages 60.8 plays per game. This situation sets up as a spot where the Lions are likely to run more plays than normal, while operating at a level in the realm of “best offense in the league” in terms of per-play efficiency. The math adds up to: Lions smash.

GPP Game Stack Of The Week

los angeles rams // san francisco 49ers

The Rams averaged 7.1 yards per play the first time they faced the 49ers and that was when all-pro linebacker Fred Warner was in the lineup. The 49ers defense has acquitted itself well over the last three games, but the Rams are in a different stratosphere offensively than those opponents. I expect another game where the Rams move the ball extremely well and they are talented and disciplined enough that I would think they will be better in the red zone and avoid the mistakes that hurt them last time. The 49ers on the other side of this, should also have success, and they have the most dependable asset in fantasy football (CMC) along with a bunch of cheap options with bankable roles. I expect added volume for the 49ers, and a lack of volume is usually what hurts their outlook as a group. Everything lines up for large game stacks around this spot to give us a direct path to a big score.