Mike’s Christmas Player Grid 17.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

• The Format ::
  • My “Player Grid” for the Christmas slate will take the format of my usual “Afternoon Only” article that I do every Sunday. A full-fledged Player Grid just didn’t feel like the right way to try to break down this slate with only three games on it and such a limited player pool to begin with. Rather, this slate very closely resembles what we see every Sunday with only three to four games in the late window. The added caveat on Christmas is that we get time between each game to learn from what has happened already and the ownerships that have flipped over.

Overview::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Cowboys – The season is dead for the Cowboys, but the pride of Jerry Jones is very much alive. Dallas has a path to an 8-8-1 record and avoiding a “losing” record would likely provide some sort of solace to many involved in the organization. Dallas also does not own their top draft picks for next year’s draft, so there is no motive from that angle to give anything but their best down the stretch. This is a spot where they could really let it loose and attack a bad Washington pass defense with their elite passing game options.
• Commanders – Washington wants to run a balanced offense and lean on their running game and mobile backup quarterback Josh Johnson. Their recipe has been a conservative one that tries to keep them competitive deep into games, which means they are likely to run the ball at a high rate on early downs or have quick passing game concepts that get the ball out on first reads. Their running game should be high volume, but spread out among several players. Their passing game should be low volume, but relatively condensed with most targets going to the wide receivers. Dallas is most vulnerable through the air, which is the route Washington is least likely to want to attack through.
• Detroit – The Lions are mathematically still alive and will be full steam ahead regardless as that is the approach their head coach and culture embodies. Detroit lost to the Vikings earlier this season and are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores has gotten the best of Jared Goff quite often in recent contests, but Minnesota can be susceptible on the ground as well. Detroit can only control what they can control, and right now that means winning this game or being eliminated from the playoffs.
• Minnesota – The Vikings will have undrafted rookie QB Max Brosmer starting in this game after losing J.J. McCarthy to a hand injury. They are also likely to be without running back Jordan Mason and tight end T.J. Hockenson. Brosmer had a game to forget in his only start in Seattle, but the Lions defense is far less complex than what Seattle does and this is a spot where Brosmer could have a lot more success. He also didn’t do much last week against the Giants, but that had more to do with game script and the Giants offense posing no real threat. This is the best situation Brosmer has played in, although it is far from a pushover.
• Denver – The Broncos are the current top seed in the AFC, but are only a game ahead of the Chargers for the division lead and play them in Week 18. If Denver wins this game and the Chargers lose to the Texans on Sunday, Denver would clinch the AFC West. Denver has been one of the more aggressive passing offenses in the league in recent weeks and the Chiefs defense is struggling with efficiency and couldn’t handle being on the field so often last week due to the offense’s inability to sustain drives. This could be a “run it up” spot for head coach Sean Payton, who is no stranger to keeping his foot on the gas.
• Kansas City – The Chiefs are down their top two quarterbacks and are likely to have Chris Oladokun under center in this one. Week 16 exposed just how many flaws this team has that Patrick Mahomes was covering up as Kansas City was beaten handily by the downtrodden Titans. This week they face a Broncos defense that has shown itself to be susceptible against talented and well-schemed offenses, but has absolutely dominated the weaker teams they’ve faced. No Mahomes. No Rashee Rice. Very difficult matchup. Not much to get excited about here.

QB Strategy ::

• Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:
  • Dak Prescott is the top play on the slate by a wide margin, but everyone will know that. He should have a decent amount of ownership and the stacks are relatively straightforward. One dynamic to keep in mind is that if you try to double stack Dak with BOTH of his primary wide receivers it is incredibly restrictive in how you can build the rest of your lineup. It basically means that you can’t afford either of ARSB or Gibbs from the Lions, and that trio’s combinatorial ownership will be somewhat high which means there are only so many ways to fill the other spots on your roster. That doesn’t mean we can’t do it, just that we need to be creative in the way we fill out the rest of the spots. 
  • The more popular way to stack Dak will likely be with one of Lamb OR Pickens, and then one or both of Jake Ferguson or Javonte Williams. I think involving Malik Davis is a super sharp way to build heavily around the Cowboys. His role is growing, he is explosive, and there is also a scenario where the Cowboys are rolling through Dak early and often, and Davis gets a bunch of work late. He is cheap, which helps you get more premium players from other spots on your roster, and will be very low owned. I think in large field tournaments he is one of the sharper plays on the slate, particularly as a part of Dak stacks.
  • Bo Nix is in an interesting spot this week as the Broncos are unlikely to be showing grace to the Chiefs if they get the chance. There is a chance for very high play volume as the Chiefs may have a lot of three and outs that keep Denver on the field a lot. Nix has been at the center of the team’s offense recently and his pass catchers are much cheaper than Dak’s, while also likely to be lower owned. 
  • Jared Goff is probably my next favorite option and the emergence of rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa (40+ snaps in four straight games) and the cheap tight ends (Zylstra and Firkser saw 5 and 4 targets, respectively, last week) on a slate where the position is extremely thin, give us some creative ways to put his stacks together. Those things probably aren’t necessary in smaller field tournaments, but in large field stuff something like a Goff double with ARSB and TeSlaa could be intriguing…..or something like Gibbs + TeSlaa on a roster built around another team.
  • Max Brosmer is in the spot he is most likely to give us fantasy production in so far in his career. The Seahawks game was a nearly impossible spot and the Giants played incredibly conservatively, which let him stay in his shell. He has the weapons, and they are cheap, to be on the winning rosters at the end of the day Thursday. In KOC we trust.
  • Josh Johnson and Chris Oladokun are simply cheap options who you could swap onto a roster to save salary at QB and hope their mobility and the way the slate plays out makes it so that one of them scores upwards of 20, but none of the top QB options gets over 25, and therefore makes the salary savings valuable and gives you a unique build. Neither seems likely to be successful, however.

My guess on final ownership::

• Dak Prescott and Bo Nix – 22 to 30%
• Jared Goff and Josh Johnson – 12 to 18%
• Max Brosmer – 8 to 12%
• Chris Oladokun – Sub-5%

Defense Strategy ::

• There are three teams starting backup quarterbacks who seem highly likely to make mistakes and be in negative game scripts on this slate. The Broncos, Lions, and Cowboys defenses are all in spots that stand out – in that order. Of the three, the Cowboys are the least talented and are facing the veteran in Josh Johnson and a team that will run at a very high rate, which makes them the defense that is least likely to put up a really big score. Denver and Detroit are by far my favorite options on the slate.
• The Vikings present an interesting game theory angle on a small slate. We know they are aggressive and will blitz at a high rate. Jared Goff has not looked great as of late, and we know the Lions can and will open things up and throw at a very high rate if they fall behind. It isn’t outlandish to think that they could force some early mistakes and maybe sneak in a defensive touchdown that forces Goff to throw 40+ times again. From that lens, Minnesota’s defense on Goff rosters is an angle that interests me, specifically for large field tournaments.
• The Chiefs are still a very well coached team and in theory pride should kick in for a primetime game on national TV on a holiday. They are only $2,200 and, frankly, we’ve seen the bad version of Bo Nix make some big mistakes at times throughout his career. Saving the money could pay off in a variety of ways and provides leverage on the likely highest owned D/ST and the second highest owned QB. This is a spot, due to the weather and nature of the teams, where I wouldn’t be taking the approach I mentioned for the Vikings. If the Chiefs defense is being successful and we are pleased with their output, I expect it is because the game environment is low scoring and ugly – so I’m definitely NOT playing the Chiefs with Nix stacks.

Positional Rankings ::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership – these are also specific to DraftKings)

RB ::

1. Jahmyr Gibbs
2. RJ Harvey
3. Aaron Jones
4. Javonte Williams
5. Isiah Pacheco

WR ::

1. CeeDee Lamb
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown
3. George Pickens
4. Justin Jefferson
5. Jameson Williams
6. Courtland Sutton
7. Jordan Addison
8. Troy Franklin
9. Terry McLaurin
10. Xavier Worthy

TE ::

1. Jake Ferguson
2. Josh Oliver
3. Travis Kelce
4. Evan Engram

Game-by-Game For This Slate ::

Be sure to check the NFL Edge game breakdowns I wrote for this slate for deeper dives into these games and be sure to check out the great breakdown of the entire dynamic of the slate from JM in his Journal.

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS ::

• Here are a few cheap options that I’ll be considering in larger fields on the Thanksgiving slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you probably wouldn’t consider using on a Main Slate::
  • Malik Davis
  • Treylon Burks
  • Lil’Jordan Humphrey
  • David Montgomery
  • Isaac TeSlaa
  • Anthony Firkser

Good luck and Happy Holidays – let’s get it!!!

-Mike