Late Swap 8.24

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

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Outlook 

Coming off back-to-back 10-game main slates, week 8 offers us a 13-game slate with some potential strong leverage in late swap. Last week we saw major tournaments, including the milli-maker be won with 180 (or less) points, however, on a slate with so many options and value available at almost every position, I’d expect it to take closer to 225-230 points to ship major tournaments this week. 

From a roster construction standpoint, I’d expect to see about half the field rostering 3 RBs this week based on current ownership projections. The remaining portion of the field appears to be split almost exactly 50/50 between a WR or TE in the flex, meaning we will see about 25% of rosters built with double TEs. We’ll discuss how we can leverage that knowledge more below.

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:

Along with the specific players/situations below, it’s important to realize that there are 6 teams (BAL, DET, HOU, GB, CIN & MIA) in the early window with team totals of 25 or more points, meaning there is a high likelihood we see multiple strong scores (25+ DK points) come out of those games.   

• Breece Hall – While the Jets fall just short of being included in the list above with a team total of 24, Hall is projecting to be rostered on about a third of all rosters in play this week. The Patriots have been gashed by RBs the past four weeks, allowing 118-2 to Tank Bigsby, 132-2 to Joe Mixon, 160-1 to Jordan Mason and 184-0 to the combination of Mostert/Wright, and the Jets are a TD favorite on the road.  
• Tyreek Hill – The Dolphins offense has struggled without QB Tua Tagovailoa these past few weeks, but Tua is expected back under center and Tyreek is severely underpriced for this news. Since being traded to MIA in 2022, Tyreek has 14 games of 28+ DK points (4x his current salary) across the 32 games where Tua started. Candidly, I’m not sure his projected ownership is high enough.   
• Cheap Buccaneers, specifically Cade Otton & Jalen McMillan – With both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans set to miss, the Tampa Bay WR room is extremely thin. Both Otton and McMillan are projecting for high ownership and, at their sub-$4k price tags, could easily put up a score that will make it difficult to win without.   Slate Breakers – Such as Jauan Jennings’ 49.5 DK point performance in week 3.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

$6,500 and up: