JM’s Player Grid 16.25

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.3K

Gardner Minshew
Kenneth Gainwell
Bijan Robinson
Xavier Worthy
Hollywood Brown
Jameson Williams
Travis Kelce
Darren Waller
Bengals

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Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

None

As is often the case this deep into the season, I don’t have any players who stand out to me as true Blue Chip plays.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“All The Points(?)”

Bo Nix + R.J. Harvey

Story:

“This game opens up”

Why It Works:

This block has not totally hit quite yet, but it has been close all three weeks that Harvey has had the lead role in this offense, posting scores of ::

43.6 (177.2-point pace)
38.0 (154.5)
41.6 (169.1)

Low-cost running back is full of holes this week, and most rosters that fish for plays below $7.7k will end up with lower point-per-dollar returns than they would optimally like (which is context that makes those scores look better).

But most importantly…

How It Works:

I think this game is a shootout.

I talked about this in my Journal at the front end of the week; but against the Raiders (twice), the Chiefs, Davis Mills’ Texans (with Stroud injured early), the Jets, the Eagles, Jake Browning’s Bengals, and the Titans, the Broncos have allowed only 12.6 points per game.

But against the Packers, Mariota’s Commanders, the Cowboys, Dart’s Giants, the Chargers, and the Colts, the Broncos have allowed 26.7 points per game, with game totals of 60 // 53 // 66 // 65 // 43 // 57.

Since the Jags’ bye, Liam Coen has been pushing all the right buttons, with this team averaging 32.9 points per game(!) across this seven-game stretch — including scoring 29 vs Houston (the most any team has scored vs Houston this year; only one other team has topped 20 against them), 35 vs the Chargers (the second most anyone has scored vs LAC this year; only three other teams have topped 21 against them), and 36 vs Indy (the most anyone has scored vs Indy this year; they are the only team that has topped 28 vs Indy).

I don’t necessarily want to try to build for DFS through the Jags; but I can bet on the Jags having a good game here by understanding that Sean Payton will get aggressive and unleash his Favre-like/Favre-lite weapon in Bo Nix if the game starts trending that direction.

From a floor/certainty standpoint, Nix doesn’t stand out on this slate. But from a standpoint of A) how I expect this game to play out, and B) the type of ceiling Nix can access if everything comes together, he’s probably my favorite quarterback play on the slate.

Nix + Sutton is the cleanest and sharpest way to build this stack (it’s a better stack than Nix + Harvey). But with the situation we’re dealing with this week at lower-cost RB, I wanted to at least highlight the Nix + Harvey angle as well.

Of course, you don’t have to play Nix + Harvey. But if you’re building a handful of teams, I do think that strongly considering Nix in your quarterback pool is a sharp way to go.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Alphas”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Pay Up-Up(-Up?)

Same as last week’s featured Bink Machine rule (where we were paying down at multiple running back spots), this is not a rule I would actually be running on 100% of rosters in MME (or even in SE/3-Max play). But this is a rule I would want to run a few roster sets around, building a few hundred rosters A) with this rule, and B) with my pool, in order to see what might be possible on a double (or triple) “RB pay-up” build.

Running back is full of question marks and obvious over-pays once we get below James Cook at $7.7k (with the top three guys the obvious crown jewels among RBs on this slate), so while we might ultimately find ourselves settling on rosters that do pay down at one running back spot, I at least want to consider what a double (or triple) pay-up roster might look like. And the most efficient // most powerful way to do this is to simply run this rule through a few hundred rosters (ideally with the player pool chopped down to the guys you want to focus on) in order to see what you might be able to do here.

The rule :: On 100% of rosters, play two to three guys from this pool.

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The Bink Machine is not just for MME players(!). It’s an incredibly powerful process-enhancer for SE/3-Max // hand-building as well.

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Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Jacoby Brissett || Bo Nix || Gardner Minshew || >>—<< || I also like Goff, who barely falls off my tightest list || >>—<< || there are plenty of other QBs you can also make a strong case for this week

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM