JM’s Journal 6.25

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live throughout the weekend BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

TUESDAY, OCT. 7 FIRST-LOOK THOUGHTS ::

RAMS-RAVENS ::

just opening up this week’s slate. first game listed is lar // bal. people go overboard in their expectations of how bad a “bad defense” will be, but it’s probably fair to assume the rams will find a way to score points here.

the field is sure to be heavily focused on the rams, with likely pretty broad consensus that puka is a strong play (some will surely even say “must play”) at $8.7k. realistically, he’s a solid play. he’ll have a strong shot at 25-30, with outside potential for more. but unless genuinely strong value opens up this week (like what we talked about last week with dowdle — value where you’re not just playing it for the savings, but are in fact playing it for the raw ceiling and range of points you think is possible; without that opening up…), Puka is unlikely to actually be a key decision point. i.e., most often, once we get to this price range, these guys are scoring enough that everyone who rostered them is happy, but not so much that people who missed out are too bothered by it. (think typical cmc production — mid to high 20s; occasionally low 30s; and every so often, a score way above or way below their typical range.) obviously, the value of this type of player is influenced by how the slate shapes up. what does salary look like by sunday morning? and how many players on the slate have scored 20-25+ by sunday evening? but generally speaking, these guys aren’t actually key decision points, even though a lot of conversation and brain power usually revolves around them.

we’ll also see a lot of discussion this week about what davante’s target share and touchdown opportunity will look like at his fairly-high price tag, with probably a lot of binary takes: “davante is a smash play this week” // “davante is an awful play this week”

but the question that interests me is: do the ravens get stomped, or is this something of a game?

because the rams defense is good…but more in that they’re disruptive often enough to kill a few drives each game. add that to an offense that can always score points and the fact that most opposing offenses will shoot themselves in the foot at least a couple times, and this starts to really condense scoring opportunities for these opponents. (if you disrupt 2/10 drives and the opponent messes up 2/10 drives, they start running out of chances to keep pace. and sometimes, they can fall behind and become one-dimensional, which serves you well with your pass rush, leading to another disruption or two.)

but in spite of what things looked like last week against a texans d that’s a different type of “good” (clamp down and make it tough for you to move the ball on every single play — or in other words, “we’re really good, and we won’t give up big plays, so you have to find a way to be a little bit better than us all the way down the field”), cooper rush is still a decent nfl quarterback, in a good offense, with great weapons.

in my opinion, zay flowers ($5.9k) and derrick henry ($6.2k) are two of the actual key decision points. because i don’t imagine either guy will be too popular. and if this is a close, high-scoring game (which i think is absolutely possible), one of them could hit in a big enough way, at a cheap enough price tag, to genuinely matter on this slate.

COWBOYS-PANTHERS ::

oh, man. then dallas // carolina.

i’m geeking out over here. what a slate!

i literally paused watching miami // carolina to start looking at the slate and hammering in some notes. and when i paused it, i was thinking…

the narrative around bryce young shapes our perception of him. quarterbacks take time to develop. look at darnold. look at daniel jones. baker had more flashes with cleveland than those guys, but he’s still a far more impressive “finished product” than he was back then. two other guys from that same draft class (what a draft class — & lol josh rosen), in lamar and josh allen, didn’t really reach the peak of their powers until the last couple years. (those guys are still improving, of course; but they’re improving by fractions of a percent at this point, as they’re already so nearly flawless.)

i’m not suggesting that bryce young will have a similar arc, but he shows serious flashes sometimes. the first touchdown drive from carolina after they went down 17-0 (on the back of a bryce fumble and overthrow pick) was as good as anything drake maye had done on sunday night to be the talk of the nfl streets on monday. (drake maye is going to end up as a top-100 player this year, and in the little video that nfl films does around the top 100, they’ll show the play of that stiff-arm throw.) and bryce has had games where he put it all together. and watching that drive, i was thinking, “i’m going to keep playing bryce young stacks this year, especially if/when he’s in a soft matchup.”

and now he’s playing the cowboys.

and to go with how bad the cowboys’ defense is, their offense is tremendous.

i do think that eberflus’ scheme is starting to take root a bit for dallas. (he’s a very solid defensive coach. he’s not some dunce out there.) and of course, there’s risk of bryce not having it this week. but this whole game has top-of-slate potential.

two bangers at the top.

CHIMERE DIKE // TITANS DST ANGLE ::

wow. dike + titans dst pairing. $5.4k.

titans d vs a vegas offense that’s very boom or bust, with a regressed geno. not a “great play,” but a solid value option with paths to ceiling and a moderately low chance of just completely tanking a roster. and dike has tremendous speed, has recent target counts of 5 // 4 // 0 // 5, with several near-misses on downfield throws, vs a defense that plays a lot of cover-3 and gets hit for downfield throws…all for $3k, because the connection hasn’t hit yet and he’s a averaging a lowly 2.1 points per game. and then on top of that, he’s the special teams ace for the titans. there is a timeline on which he goes 3-110-1, while also returning a kick for a score and getting you the double-up with the titans’ d (i.e., 29 dk points, plus getting the six for the td again from your dst.) it’s like playing a $5.4k player who is mostly going to score 6-12, but is capable of going for 25-40. (or basically: a.j. brown)

this is basically a must-play on a small % of rosters in the milly maker (paging @SonicLibrarian_nhpain!), but i found it while building a roster that i really liked, that included jsn and puka, and that had only $5.4k left for dst/flex. i had already set the titans aside in my mind as a viable cheap option, so the dike piece falling into place was a solid enough setup that i actually like the roster (with that block) for se/3-max too (maybe 5% exposure or something). good risk/reward setup.

POTENTIAL BROWNS PAIRINGS ::

20.3 // 17.8 // 14.5 // 7.6 // 30.0

that’s a game log of a typical $7k player.

that $7k player ($6.9k) can cover two spots on your roster if you want, this week, while freeing up salary for high-end pieces elsewhere, in the form of fannin + njoku (to whom those combined scores belong). they’re likely to land in the high-teens or low-20s this week, but there is ceiling for
more.

another browns pairing: 35.5 // 24.6 // 25.5 — $9.4k || judkins + njoku

RAIDERS DST // GENERAL DST THOUGHTS ::

CARDINALS-COLTS UPSIDE ::

arizona has not inspired confidence on offense this year, but they are the type of team that can play any game close; and the colts should be able to march the field on this defense, which could eventually lead to each of these teams scoring in the high-20s. if that happens, there’s a good chance a coming-around marvin harrison jr is part of the recipe for success.

at $5.3k, he carries low enough risk, with high enough ceiling, that he’s interesting this week.

at the very least, he’ll be involved for an offense that will probably be forced to try to score points, vs a secondary that has not been good this year.

DOLPHINS’ DST POTENTIAL ::

if no defense looks good on paper this week…are the dolphins viable? with the injuries to the chargers’ offensive line and now backfield, they don’t look good right now. herbert is pressing and making mistakes. they might not be able to run vs this awful run d. 10 am body clock start for the chargers, in miami where it’s always tough for visiting teams.

i was poking around on a herbert build and then thinking, “but honestly, i expect this game to be relatively lower-scoring.” if that’s the case, miami could score 5-8 points pretty easily at $2.2k.

MID-WEEK RB THOUGHTS ::

rbs who can have decently high-probability cases made for them for a multi-td game (based on role, offense, matchup, etc.) ::

• kyren
• javonte
• dowdle if chuba misses
• jt
• etienne
• possibly either seattle back
• outside shot at judkins
• jeanty
• jacobs
• cmc
• tampa backfield

JM’S OVERALL NFL BETTING APPROACH // CAVEATS::

I wanted to drop the bets I’ve been taking; but before I do that, a quick note ::

As with DFS (duh), you should only ever bet money you can comfortably lose. This is obvious; but A) because we play DFS for asymmetric payouts, it can make us want to bump up the money we put at risk in bets, since the gains are smaller; and B) most people have very little budget/financial discipline or foresight, which gets them into trouble when it comes to betting.

Two things to remember:

1) Betting can become a problem for certain personality types quite easily…and

2) When betting over/unders, game lines, and money lines, we probably don’t have an edge over the books!!!

Said differently: in an area where we probably don’t have an edge, people can nevertheless get too aggressive thinking this is where they will make their money.

With very limited betting so far, I’m up 5.18 units on the season.

Realistically, I expect that to creep back down toward zero if I continue to bet.

At the same time ::

1) I’ve been watching all the games.

2) There are very unique angles/eyes through which I watch the games that are giving me a very good feel for things.

3) I don’t drop bets on all the games; I only bet on places where I feel I have an edge.

Against that (lengthy, but probably-necessary) backdrop, here are the bets I have open at the moment, for anyone interested:

NOTE: I bet a little differently than most; rather than betting “to win one unit” (i.e., betting 110 to win 100 at -110), I just always bet one unit (i.e., if a unit were $100 for me, I would still bet $100, even at -110). This is just how my mind works, and is how I’ll track accounting on this. Consider this a little test to see if this is something I’ll keep dropping in here for now. (Obviously, if — against all odds — we start finding consistent success here, this will eventually become paywalled. But we’ll keep it as a bonus for the time being; just a little bit of fun on the side.)

WEEK 6 bETS ::

I took the Broncos at -6.5 over the Jets. The line is now -7.5, which I don’t see as much edge in, but if you can find -6.5 anywhere, I still like that. Potential points of failure: the Broncos are big-play hunters on offense, and are inconsistent in this area, which could allow the score to remain close, especially if some fluky things happen early. But in most scenarios, I see this game eventually becoming uncompetitive, which makes the -6.5 feel pretty safe. The Broncos are a Super Bowl contender, and the Jets are an obvious front-runner for the number one pick.

Last week (early lines), I took the Cowboys -3.5 over the Panthers. I’m actually a bit more on the fence about this one now. The Cowboys are the better team (purely in that they are consistent on offense, while the Panthers kill too many of their drives with mistakes, somewhat offsetting the edge the Dallas D provides them), but I could easily see this being a field-goal game. I’ll track this in my own accounting because I took the bet (duh), but it’s not a strong lean for me at this point.

Bills // Falcons over 49.5. 49.5 is a big number, but the Bills are capable of scoring against any defense, even a solid one like the Falcons, and the Bills are fundamentally bad against the run, which should keep this Falcons offense on schedule throughout. If the Bills sell out to stop the run, the Falcons can throw against this defense. If you’re the Falcons, you’re also taking on Josh Allen, so you don’t go into the game assuming you can be conservative when you have the ball. There is opportunity for elevated scoring here, and while this doesn’t feel like the Broncos bet (where I think we easily win over 70% of the time), this is still +EV — something we would get more than 55% of the time.

I took the Bengals at +14.5 vs the Packers. This has since dropped to +13.5, which I wouldn’t take, but if you can find a +14.5, I still like it. The Bengals defense is rounding into form (they still aren’t good, but they are no longer awful), the Packers are not a precision offense like the Lions (they run and hunt for big plays, which is higher-variance), and the Bengals are going to continue reevaluting things and finding ways to minimize their weaknesses on offense. Potential point of failure is if the Bengals’ players are checked out mentally at this point — which I don’t quite think we’ll see, as their record says they are still alive, and Burrow still has a chance to come back and save them late in the season. Last week, I took the Lions -10.5 vs the Bengals, along with several small-$ alt lines (-11.5, -16.5, -23.5, etc.). Point is: I think the Bengals are bad; I just think this matchup is a little bit different.

I took the Patriots money line vs the Saints — it was -205 when I took it, and you’re getting even better odds now at -185 (DK). The Patriots are a playoff team, and the Saints will likely win 3-5 games. Even on the road, the Patriots win this game the vast majority of the time. Risk factors are the Patriots coming out flat (which is not all that likely on a Vrabel/McDaniels team) or some fluky bounces of the ball going the Saints’ way early.

BETS ON WEEK 7 LOOK-AHEAD LINES ::

If this one is still available, I love it :: Seahawks -2.5 at home against the Texans. The Texans scored six points through three quarters against the Titans, and then smashed a Ravens team playing nine backups on defense. The Seahawks are legitimate Super Bowl contenders in a stacked NFC. This was -115 when I took it, and I saw it had moved to -118 later in the day. Biggest risk factor is that the Seahawks have some key injuries this week, or just come out flat vs the Texans. The Texans have a tremendous defense, but their offense is still not good.

Panthers +2.5 at the Jets. The Panthers are the better team, and are underdogs here. Simple as that.

I also increased my stake in the Seahawks // Texans game by putting together a parlay of Patriots money line vs Titans + Seahawks -2.5 vs Texans.

WEEK 5 BETTING REVIEW ::

In Week 5, I had:

4 units on the Patriots at +8.5 vs the Bills.

1 unit on the Saints at -1.5 vs the Giants.

0.667 units on the Saints -115 to win vs the Giants.

1 unit on the Lions at -10 vs the Bengals.

0.467 units spread up a ladder on the Lions winning by a lot (one leg hit; the others didn’t).

RICO DOWDLE EARLY WEEK 6 THOUGHTS ::

Chuba Hubbard missed practice on Wednesday, which sets up Dowdle for another full workload if we keep trending in this direction. Dowdle played 67% of snaps last week (not a monster number), but he saw 84% of the running back touches, and is clearly in the alpha role (as expected) with Chuba out. As noted last week: he’s also a good NFL running back. Not great — but not a whole lot different from Chuba, either.

Realistically, we’re likelier to get 16-22 DK points than we are to get a tourney-winner, and if Chuba misses, Dowdle could easily be higher-owned this week at $5.8k than he was last week at $4.3k. But he’s still a rock-solid, “don’t overthink it” type of play if he’s in the lead role once again.

We’re also pretty good (at OWS // as a community) at understanding when to worry about narratives and when to ignore them. Dowdle playing his old team is a narrative worth leaning into. He’s a good play without that, and the narrative gives him a small boost. This spot feels similar to a couple spots we’ve had recently:

Jordan Mason’s first start :: I emphasized the fact, that week, that Mason was a rock solid play at his price, and was unlikely to actually be a difference-maker on the slate, but that he did have that within his range of outcomes. He proceeded to post 26.6 DK points on a slate where most running backs disappointed.

Javonte Williams last week :: I relentlessly compared Javonte Williams to James Conner last week, saying that he provides plenty of value for the fact that he’ll almost always score 15+ points, with plenty of scores in the low-20s, and with somewhere around two to four games likely on tap this year in which he’ll push for close to (or even more than) 30. He proceeded to post 29.9 last week.

Both of those guys were among my highest-owned players on their respective slates not because I expected the big game, but because I knew the solid game was highly likely, and the big game was within the range of outcomes.

Assuming Chuba misses, that’s where Dowdle lands this week for me. (Or…it’s Wednesday. But that’s where my thoughts stand at the moment.)

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS ON OTHER RBs IN DOWDLE’S PRICE RANGE ::

@everyone — also in the Dowdle price range (a stacked price range this week) ::

$5.9k, Etienne :: the least attractive play of the bunch on paper, but two games already of 21+, and there are certainly outside opportunities for a bigger game than that in one of the better-schemed rushing attacks in the NFL.

$5.9k, Judkins :: a future $7k back. I haven’t verified this stat, but I heard it on Chris Simms’ podcast, which is credible: Judkins is averaging 6.0 yards per carry against eight-man boxes this year. Furthermore, Judkins pops when watching the Browns, and has touch counts (since being unleashed) of 19 // 25 // 24. The 24 touches came on only 39 snaps last week. When he’s on the field, they are riding him. The big risk factor here is overall offensive failure vs the Steelers. If the Browns can score a couple offensive touchdowns, there’s a good chance both are coming from Judkins.

$6.0k, Rachaad White :: You know the deal by now. White had only 41 yards on 14 carries last week. We’re not rostering him for his rushing chops; and frankly, with Bucky Irving priced at $7k, White is a bit overpriced at $6k. But running backs are heavily involved in the passing offense for this team, and White’s two touchdowns last week remind us of what can happen if everything comes together. He ranks below Judkins, for sure (and given the probable delta in ownership, Etienne is probably more +EV as well, in spite of White being the better play on paper), but he’s still very much in the mix.

$6.3k, Kyren :: Eight catches last week. Four touchdowns on the season. 15+ touchdowns each of the last two seasons. Kyren’s likeliest output is 14-22 DK points, but another spiked week isn’t out of the question.

$6.4k, Javonte :: I’ll keep banging the drum that the Panthers defense is not as bad as public perception would have us believe, and they are more solid against the run this year than most DFS players realize. But Javonte’s “James Conner arc” isn’t going away.

Putting these $5.8k to $6.4k guys into tiers, I’d currently say ::

1 :: Dowdle

2a :: Javonte // Judkins

2b :: Kyren // Rachaad

3 :: Etienne (but with EV added for the fact that he’ll almost certainly be low-owned)

I’d be fine rearranging/ranking those middle four guys in any way you want.

an interesting note to go with this: Kyren Williams averaged 17.9 DK points per game last year. Chuba (in the role Dowdle will continue to have) averaged 17.1 DK points per game last year. De’Von Achane (who people jump out of their boots to roster at a much higher price tag each week) averaged 18.0 DK points per game last year. Just a little tidbit to highlight the strength of some of these lower-cost RB plays.

Josh Jacobs averaged 17.9 last year. Pricing psychology is funny.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INITIAL BINK MACHINE RUN ::

My computer stayed off this week until tonight, so I just fired up the Bink Machine for the first time.

Here’s a quick look at what a mid-week run pushed my way, based off mid-week projections (without blending in ceiling projections) ::

25% or higher ::

Herbert

Jonathan Taylor
Kyren Williams
Rachaad White
Derrick Henry
Josh Jacobs
Quinshon Judkins
Javonte Williams

Keenan Allen
Chris Olave
Michael Pittman
Puka Nacua

Tyler Warren
Trey McBride

Saints
Raiders

15% to 25% ::

Daniel Jones
Spencer Rattler

De’Von Achane
Christian McCaffrey

Quentin Johnston
Tetairoa McMillan
Ladd McConkey
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jerry Jeudy

Juwan Johnson

QBs 10% to 15% ::

Kyler Murray

QBs 5% to 10%

Bryce Young

Notable “snubs” ::

5% Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Thoughts on these early results ::

QB ::

In my opinion, we see projections a bit slow to catch up with what we’re seeing on the field in a couple spots. The Chargers are absolutely capable of scoring points through the air vs the Dolphins, but there are more risks/holes than these heavy Chargers numbers seem to recognize. The Chargers’ offense is built off its run concepts, and between the injuries on the offensive line and in the backfield, they don’t have a run game at the moment. Herbert is constantly under duress (Jaelan Phillips looks healthy, and Bradley Chubb is still capable of beating backups, so it’s not like this is a soft landing spot from that perspective), and on top of all that, the goal of NFL teams is to win the game they are playing, and “the game the Chargers are playing” is, “beat-up on offense, with the defense still playing well, against a limping Dolphins offense missing their top weapon.” In other words, the Chargers aren’t necessarily looking to attack downfield and score as quickly as possible, and the Dolphins aren’t super likely to push them out of this stance. I think Herbert is absolutely fine this week, but I also think projection systems are likely to overrate him.

The other spot that really stands out is Spencer Rattler, against a Patriots defense that may be shaping up to be one of the better units in the NFL with Christian Gonzalez healthy. They are so big up front, and so tough to get open against, that it’s hard to see a “march the field” offense like the Saints finally putting up their first big game here. Yes, the price is nice; but the case for ceiling is thin.

RB ::

I don’t at all hate the Derrick Henry love from projections, but in his stellar first season with the Ravens, he had 10.6-17.0 DK points eight times and 27.5-33.4 six times, with additional games of 6.7 // 23.9 // 38.9. In those eight games north of 17 DK points, the Ravens were 8-0, with 28+ points scored in all eight games (30+ in seven of eight; 34+ in five of eight). Realistically, “Derrick Henry scoring 20+” is highly likely to mean “the Ravens scoring 30+” (in his one big game this year, the Ravens scored 40 — in a game they should have won vs the Bills). And it’s hard for me to see the Ravens scoring 30. And if you think they will, shouldn’t you play Cooper Rush alongside Henry? (Worth noting: two of my 17 practice builds so far have been Cooper Rush rosters. I don’t know if I’ll actually play him this week, but it’s worth at least keeping Rush + Zay in mind, as sentiment from the DFS public will be low, and Rush posted 18+ in three of seven games last year, with CeeDee Lamb catching 8 // 9 // 10 balls in those games. Probably not a tourney-winning path, but again: at least worth keeping in mind, especially as this may be a week in which QBs aren’t generally popping off.)

The rest of the RB position is pretty much directly in line with what we’ve been drawing up in this space so far this week. It’s somewhat bittersweet to see projections catching up to Javonte Williams, but it had to happen eventually.

WR ::

No major surprises. Projections like Herbert and Rattler, so it makes sense that their primary pass catchers are catching love. Daniel Jones is also in the mix for mid-week projections, so Pittman (and Warren) ride that as well. Puka one of the highest-exposure wideouts in this initial roster set? No surprise there. We’re not super likely to get the monster, tourney-winner in this game unless the Ravens are keeping pace; but most weeks this year, Puka will push north of 20 DK points, which pretty much always makes him a sharp/solid play.

There’s no way Marvin Harrison Jr. will grab north of 15% ownership, right? (I use that number because he showed up on more than 15% of these rosters.) I feel like sentiment on him remains moderately low, but maybe the price tag is cheap enough that people will get there. In any case, I continue to like MHJ as a play this week.

Very little JSN is a bit odd. The Jags’ defense is solid…but they give up points. And if Trevor Lawrence “good” can outweigh Trevor Lawrence “bad,” this will develop into one of the better game environments. I’m not buying what early-week projections are selling here. (JSN, of course, projects well; just not well enough to pop at his price tag.)

TE ::

No major thoughts.

DST ::

Saints v Pats is a no for me. (Pats v Saints, meanwhile…)

Any DST popping vs Tennessee makes sense. I buy that one.

Final thoughts here ::

Rams // Ravens can be a lopsided Rams win, and has an outside shot at being a high-scoring affair all the way around.

Cowboys // Panthers can fall apart on the Panthers’ side, but if they bring their best stuff, this game has meteoric potential (65+ total points). The Panthers have a better defense than people think, but they still aren’t good, and the Cowboys are tremendous, with Dak at the top of his game; and the Panthers’ offense is capable of genuinely high-end play and are taking on a Cowboys defense that is improving, but is still not good. (What the Panthers’ offense makes me think of :: Clay Buchholz was a career number-three pitcher; but in the second start of his career, he threw a no-hitter; and every so often, he would have a game where that elite form showed. The Panthers are basically that type of “number three starter” on an MLB roster: a guy who has number-one stuff, but is inconsistent enough — with enough genuinely bad mixed in — that he’s never more than the three. Those “ace starts” are in there, though, and sometimes they come out.)

Cardinals // Colts almost always plays out with each team scoring in the 20s (with the first wave off this being scores from one team in the high teens or the low 30s). Scenarios where both teams fail or where both teams go off are very low-likelihood, presenting a setup where we likely get some solid scores, and might get a couple elite scores, but where there aren’t a ton of scenarios in which full-on game stacks flood the tops of tourneys.

Seahawks // Jags has elite upside, as noted above. We could obviously (easily) see each team scoring in the 20s; but scenarios where each team scores in the 30s are very much live this week.

Chargers // Dolphins has a broad range of outcomes.

Browns // Steelers would need something really fluky to take off.

Patriots // Saints includes a good defense in the Patriots alongside a Saints team that has scored 20+ offensive points only once (21 vs San Francisco in Week 2).

Titans // Raiders is a pairing of two teams that constantly kill their own drives without any help from the opposing defense. (There is also ceiling here, with downfield passing on both sides. We can’t discount this game. But if it takes off, it will be big plays rather than each team putting together crisp drives that finish with touchdowns.)

Bengals // Packers is a question of whether or not the Bengals can find a way to keep pace.

49ers // Bucs feels like a game that could finish 35-38, and that projections and DFS players will overlook. The Bucs had eight games last year of 30+ points scored(!!!), including four of 37+. They also gave up 30+ in four games. They are natural shootout producers. They already have games of 29 and 38 this year, and have scored at least 20 in every contest so far. It doesn’t look like we’ll get Pearsall back, which is a real shame, and we may not get Jauan, either. But this game absolutely can do what Bucs games can do.

Honestly, a really fun slate.

Thursday, Oct. 9 Thoughts ::

Notable Differences When Changing Settings (cont. from yesterday’s bink machine run)::

I bumped “projected points randomness” to High and bumped the blend of Ceiling Projections to 85%. Here’s what this set is yielding ::

Daniel Jones jumped Herbert as the highest-exposure QB.

Tetairoa McMillan popped above 25% exposure, while MHJ almost cracked 25%, and JSN soared up close to 20%. Calvin Ridley also soared from sub-10% to 24% (a really great snapshot of how we should think about Ridley this week: high-variance, with a high enough ceiling that we should still be keeping him in mind). In these new settings, Olave tumbled to sub-10%, as did Spencer Rattler.

MORE WEEK 6 BETTING UPDATES ::

More betting updates, for anyone interested ::

I like a Broncos alt line ladder.

These are all DK numbers ::

-9.5 is +108
-12.5 is +157
-15.5 is +227
-19.5 is +357
-22.5 is +522

The one thing the Jets can’t do in this spot is turn into a drop-back passing offense, as Fields and their passing attack won’t stand a chance against the Broncos’ pass rush // pass defense.

The Broncos are big-play hunters on offense, and the Jets can be had in this area. If the Broncos take an early multi-score lead, this one could snowball.

I put 0.05 units on each of those.

COMPREHENSIVE WEEK 6 QB THOUGHTS ::

I haven’t really been able to wrap my head around QB this week, so let’s take a stab at that here ::

There are a lot of factors in play here, but broadly speaking, here are a few things I see with this slate ::

1) Lots of solid running back options (and for the third consecutive week, it feels like we have a good shot at seeing a decent number of solid to excellent scores from the position — with price not necessarily the driving factor behind where these scores come from).

2) Pretty broad uncertainty at the wide receiver position, with Ja’Marr Chase, Emeka Egbuka, George Pickens, and Davante Adams priced $6.7k to $7.7k with paths to elite production, but with most scenarios leading to these guys underperforming salary, plus a bunch of guys priced $4.6k to $6.2k with elite ceiling but narrow paths for getting there (Shaheed // Tucker // Ridley // Bourne // Marvin Harrison Jr. // Pittman // Quentin Johnston // Zay Flowers // Tetairoa McMillan // Waddle // Brian Thomas Jr. — just to name a few)…and then, to top off this relative uncertainty at the position, we have the massive certainty of Puka vs Baltimore, and the high-probability prospect of JSN in a likely higher-scoring game vs Jacksonville.

3) The uncertainty at WR obviously spills over to quarterback as well.

All of this has led to me building a bunch of practice builds this week with Bryce Young, two or three running backs I like, Puka + JSN (or Puka + CMC, or JSN + CMC), and “whatever I need to do to fill out the roster from there.” Given everything laid out above, I think this is a massively +EV approach on this particular week. But of course, there are clear opportunities for failure on the Bryce Young side; and also, I try to always make sure I don’t get boxed into one layer of thinking too early in the week. These practice builds have been great for helping me understand the state of the slate, and for helping me see one clear way to build for this week, but let’s look at what else might be out there. A bet on Matthew Stafford is a bet on a very competitive game between the Rams and the Ravens. Given the offensive acumen of the Ravens and the solid play Cooper Rush has provided in the past, I think this is very possible, but it does seem to take a leap of faith to believe the Ravens can push this game enough for a pocket passer like Stafford to pop for a third consecutive elite DFS game. I lean toward No on Stafford for tighter builds; but if I were playing him, I would want to make sure I included a piece or two from the Ravens. (Cooper Rush is viable, but a bet on him is a bet on him posting the first tourney-worthy score of his career, vs a good defense. I’ll probably leave that alone on tighter builds.)

Dak is playing at an MVP level, and while it would seem that a game against the Panthers is not a spot where he would be pushed into elite production, his games against the Giants (26.1 DK points) and Jets (28.3 DK points) felt the same way. He’s one of those plays that is tough to point to on paper, but that is nevertheless viable as a bet on the potential upside of this game environment. We seem to be trending toward Jacoby Brissett under center for Arizona this week, which makes it hard for me to get excited about the upside on Daniel Jones vs a solid defense. Projections love him, but if we take away rushing scores, he has posted scores of 17.5 // 19.8 // 15.8 // 12.4 // 16.7. This offense is not a major “big play hunter,” which means we likely need Jones marching the field to post useful DK numbers; and if Arizona has a harder time keeping pace, we have a much lower likelihood of this style leading to 300+ yards and three scores. Jones, of course, has been a rushing threat in his career, but that’s not how this Indy offense is structured. They’ll sometimes sneak him on the goal line, but I think they are likelier to lean toward JT in the paint at this point, and he has north of two rushing yards in only two games this year. I’m not getting too excited about this one, personally.

It feels awful to “chase” Darnold and Lawrence one week after each quarterback was in a shootout and posted a strong DK score (31.6 for Darnold // 28.2 for Lawrence). To my eye, Lawrence has looked consistently mediocre this year, with a few elite plays mixed in, and he’s taking on a tremendous defense in the Seahawks (albeit one that’s banged up in the secondary). Darnold is taking on a good defense, but he’s been genuinely elite in this offense, and is the standout option between these two this week. I don’t mind going to either, but even with visions of a higher-scoring game here, it’s hard for me to feel confident in either guy. Of course…I’ve been messing around with these Bryce Young practice builds, so apparently “feeling confident” isn’t likely to be a big feature of the QB position this week. Miami has faced the second lowest pass play rate in the NFL, which has lowered QB production against them, but as we explored last week: they have been historically bad against the pass this year, on a per-pass basis. I don’t like the price tag on Justin Herbert ($6.3k), and I may prefer to take my swings on this passing offense through its pass catchers; but there is a case to be made for the Chargers to lean on the pass with their backfield banged up, and if that’s what they do, they’re capable of having success here. How far will that success carry them? With Miami likely to have a difficult time vs this Chargers defense, that’s another open question; but I’m at least not chopping Herbert off my list just yet. Drake Maye has a broad range of outcomes, and in a game I expect the Patriots to control, he could easily throw the ball 30 or fewer times (which would be his fourth time in six games landing in that range); but in terms of “dynamic quarterbacks who can make things happen on their own,” he’s in the mix. Mac Jones has been called on for pass attempt totals of 39 // 41 // 49, and the Bucs naturally funnel opponents toward the air. This is a bet on Kyle Shanahan, as you’re taking a hobbled pocket passer on a deeply injured offense; but in the context of this slate, he absolutely fits.

And given that breakdown of what I see as the viable quarterbacks on the slate…Bryce Young continues to look “not so bad.” It’s tough to tie the results of a weekend to him, as he has 14 or fewer DK points in four of five games this year(!). But with Jalen Coker set to return, and a matchup against Dallas on tap, the pieces are there. Young also has games in his last 11 contests of 23.6 // 26.3 // 27.1 // 36.4. Dallas allows the highest EPA/pass and the third highest completion rate in the league. Looking at StatRankings, they have also allowed 28.72 DK points per game to QBs (three more than the next worst team), with games against Russell Wilson and Justin Fields part of that (as well as an awesome, but inconsistent Caleb Williams, and a QB in Jordan Love who is very good but almost never posts high-end fantasy scores). The Cowboys also run the highest rate of zone coverage in the league (StatRankings), where Bryce Young has completed 64% of his passes (vs 44% vs man!). It’s a bit “paint by numbers,” but continuing to pick on the Cowboys defense really does make sense in the context of what this slate provides. With Bryce Young, you can easily fit two of JSN // Puka // CMC, and you can grab one of the highest QB ceilings on the slate while also having outs in case Bryce Young misses (with those outs being the fact that most QB spots on this slate look unlikely to produce tourney-winners, so if Bryce posts just a passable score, you could still sneak into a tourney win).

I don’t want to tie my entire week’s bankroll to Bryce Young…but I’m closer to doing that than I am to moving off Bryce Young altogether. It’s pretty clear to me at this point that he’ll be one of my staples at QB. The big question now is whether that means he’ll be one of two or three staples (where I would have two or three staples and a few other guys I’m taking low-bankroll-exposure swings on), or if he’ll instead be one of one, where I stamp in one QB across most lineups and mix and match different ideas around that. (In that scenario, I could have anywhere from 50% to 70% Bryce Young, with a broad mix-and-match behind that of guys I have 3% to 8% of my bankroll for the week on.)

WEEK 5 WR/TE USAGE OBSERVATIONS/REFLECTIONS ::

Some Week 5 usage notes ::

Ryan Flournoy played 34/60 snaps for the Cowboys last week, and obviously commanded more targets and schemed usage than Jalen Tolbert. George Pickens is awesome at what he does, but he’s not an all-around receiver, which opens opportunity for another major contributor in this passing attack. Obviously, Jake Ferguson comes first; but there’s a chance the Flournoy usage was not fluky.

Isaiah Likely played 23/43 snaps for the Ravens last week. He posted 8.7 or fewer DK points in 11/16 games last year…but he also had games of 10.5 // 11.9 // 14.8 // 16.3 // 29.1. He’s $2.8k this week.

Darren Waller bumped from 16 snaps in Week 4 to 32 snaps in Week 5. He’s a critical part of this offense without Tyreek Hill, and this snap rate should keep climbing.

It’s a new coaching staff, but Taysom Hill is still here. He played only nine snaps last week in his first action of the year, but he had one pass attempt and six carries on those snaps. Just a reminder :: in eight games last year, he had DK scores of 14.4 // 16.0 // 46.5. HIs likeliest output is 0-10 points, but he has ceiling.

Our guy Chimere Dike played 33/67 snaps for the Titans last week, and was involved in both the short/schemed passing attack and the downfield-shot passing attack. A reminder: he’s a great pairing partner with the Titans’ DST, especially in large-field play.

Also on the Titans, Gunnar Helm played 44/67 snaps and ran 24 pass routes (to 27 for Chig Okonkwo), marking his first game with more than 27 snaps. This was surely due, in part, to a drop in snaps for a hobbled Calvin Ridley; but Helm made a fantastic over-the-shoulder sideline catch at the one-yard-line last week that could continue to earn him playing time // looks.

Chris Godwin has played 58 // 47 snaps the last two weeks. Clearly, he’s not fully back just yet, but it’s at least worth noting that he’s out there quite a bit. In theory, the big game could come.

Our guy Kendrick Bourne played 70/86 snaps last week (augh! — how was that game not on the Main Slate?). Demarcus Robinson also played 73 snaps and saw seven targets. Just a reminder that he posted games of 2-35-2 and 6-94-2 with the Rams last year, and in 2023 — with injuries piling up for LA — he had a five-game stretch with DK scores of 15.5 // 13.6 // 14.7 // 20.2 // 14.2. There’s some hidden ceiling here, and no one will be looking at him at $3.6k. (This is all assuming that Pearsall and Jennings miss again, of course.)

A side note that I just thought of here :: Bourne + Robinson = $8.6k in salary, with 18 targets last week, and a similar target expectation this week. Of course, Bourne will probably be somewhat popular, which makes these player pairings a little less valuable (i.e., if they combine for 30 DK points, but 23 of those come from Bourne, you are sharing that score with others, while taking on a relative dud in the other spot; where these pairings are most valuable is when most of the field is on neither guy, so that no matter how the points shake out, you’re just getting a solid haul of low-owned points, and it doesn’t really matter which of the two is carrying most of the load).

Blake Corum played only six snaps last week after fumbling on his first carry. I don’t think this carries into Week 6, but it’s at least worth noting.

Hunter Henry (52/60 snaps) was the only Patriots skill position player who played more than 37 snaps last week. Welcome back, Josh McDaniels. (And good luck guessing correctly on who — if anyone — will produce in the box score if the Pats have a big game.)

FRIDAY, OCT. 10 THOUGHTS ::

Player grid is live; let’s go! https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-6-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-6-25

EARLY WEEK 7 BET (PATS at TITANS) ::

i’ll drop this without an “everyone” tag, in case it’s a bother for you to get an alert and think it’s for dfs, and instead it’s a bet. this one isn’t about to move significantly, so it’s not time-sensitive

also, i should note that none of these are recommendations, so much as i’m just keeping you in the loop on what i’m seeing in case you’re shopping for bets

i dropped four full units on Week 7, Pats -6 at Titans

6 is a big number; but very realistically, the Pats should be 4-1. they dominated the steelers and lost a close game due to 5(!) turnovers. they keep every drive on-schedule, and the titans almost never keep their drives on-schedule, which is a recipe for one team to pull away from another. most importantly, players who play for vrabel tend to love him, and this is vrabel’s return to the team that fired him. the patriots won’t let up in this one if they have their foot on the neck of the titans, which makes -6 a more confident number than it would typically be.

SATURDAY, OCT. 11 THOUGHTS ::

LEVERAGE ANGLES INVOLVING KYREN // PUKA // JSN // HORTON ::

Leverage angles :: kyren on non-puka builds // tory horton on non-jsn builds. these aren’t always as clean as they seem on the surface (i.e., kyren and puka could hit together in a game where the rams are smashing), but a bet on both kyren and horton includes a bet on them scoring touchdowns; and for each touchdown they score, puka/jsn are not scoring touchdowns.

i also like the idea of horton on some puka builds, to essentially capture the full runout if puka turns into ‘the only way to play the pay-up game.’ in other words: ‘part of the reason puka was so valuable on the slate was because he was the only sharp way to pay up. and part of the reason he was the only sharp way to pay up was because horton stole two touchdowns from jsn.’ there’s no direct correlation between the two plays, but they work well together in terms of maximizing the math toward a first-place finish. copy/paste same ideas for kyren/jsn pairings.

THOUGHTS ON “EASY POINTS” ROSTER BUILDING ::

@everyone — I got in a mood/zone for a little while last night of just “building for easy points” on some practice builds.

This started from hunting for different QB setups (Rush, Maye, etc.), and then finding myself back on Bryce Young again. Typically when I have a week like that, I look up at the end of the day on Sunday and chastise myself for not stretching my thinking enough. Basically: if I keep coming back to a setup/approach that has plenty of paths to the downside, but I don’t stretch far enough in other directions because I just can’t figure out what’s the best “other direction” to go in, I come to realize when it’s all said and done that “stretching into other directions” was exactly what I should have been doing.

So then I put Jordan Love onto a roster I had already mostly built, that I already liked, in order to try something different. And I started thinking: “The thing about Love is, we can easily see how he fails to get a tourney-winner; but we also know it’s not unusual to see high-end, touchdown-heavy games in blowout wins; and if we strip off price tags, it’s true that Love is pretty easy points. By “easy points,” I mean one portion of the equation is already solved for us: his offense is almost certainly going to score several touchdowns in this spot. It’s not likely to be a hard-fought battle for production from this offense. So while we don’t know for sure that Love will collect the bulk of those points, we do know there’s a high likelihood of these points being available without much struggle.

Which led me down a path of thinking :: where are some of the “easiest points” on the slate?

Here’s a list, from top-of-pricing down, rolling through positions:

CMC :: pass game involvement and importance to his offense in an important game

Jacobs :: attachment to Packers offense vs Cincy

Javonte :: central to everything being done by a good offense

Rachaad :: pass game involvement and importance to his offense in an important game

Dowdle :: Chuba established this role in Week 2 of last season; after that, he went on to score 15+ DK points in nine of 13 games, with 20.7+ in six of 13. (Even Miles Sanders went for 25+ when he took over this role for a couple weeks.) Dowdle has this role to himself, in a good matchup, against his old team.

Puka :: central to everything being done by a good offense

JSN :: central to everything being done by a good offense

TMac :: a tier lower than all the guys listed so far, but a tier above others priced around him; no questions around his role and consistent usage in this offense, in a matchup against a beatable pass defense that won’t be doing anything dramatic or too specific to try to “take him away”

49er :: in three of their last four games, the 49ers have had a wideout see double-digit targets — and it was clear each week who that wideout would be: Jauan when he played // Pearsall when Jauan was out // Bourne when both were out. Bourne and Jauan cost $5k and $4.8k, respectively, and in an ideal world, we don’t get news here until inactives, which would create little to no ownership on these guys. The angle would be to put Bourne onto rosters, and pivot down to Jauan if he’s active. (Though of course, more than likely, we’ll end up getting word on this from the team on Saturday, or from Schefter on Saturday night.)

Rashid Shaheed :: in terms of points-per-dollar, Shaheed’s floor this year has been higher than TMac’s, and we know he has a high ceiling (games this year of ~3.5x and ~5.5x), taking on a man-heavy defense, where his upside is highest — all with the added bonus of being leverage off a likely popular player in Olave. (Olave is easy points with fewer paths to slate-tilting ceiling, similar to Keenan Allen on this slate. It is worth noting, of course, that “fewer paths to ceiling” does not mean these guys can’t hit, so while they aren’t priorities for me, they are solid plays on a roster where you feel like you’re already taking on enough risk, and you just want one spot where you’re locking in what you feel to be pretty safe points.)

Jake Ferguson :: literally second in the NFL in receptions, taking on a Panthers defense that has had a rough go of it against tight ends

Tyler Warren :: the same floor and consistency so far this season as Olave, but with a higher ceiling, in a better offense, at a thinner position, at a lower price tag

David Njoku :: at the price tag, you can’t do much better.

COWBOYS & PANTHERS BLOCKS OBSERVATIONS ::

This Cowboys // Panthers game is one where I keep mentioning the fact that I’ll have exposure to both sides, but I haven’t actually built any Dak rosters yet. (To be clear: If I set a plan tonight, for example, of 20% of my bankroll allocated to Dak, I’ll have 20% of my bankroll allocated to Dak, but I’ll be purely shopping through Bink Machine rosters for ideas and/or builds. Which is also fine — but I’m just illustrating that I’ve been working with the expectation over the last couple days that I’ll have something like 20% to 25% Dak, and yet, I have not built any Dak rosters.)

Which is pretty crazy, because…

In three of the Cowboys’ last four games, Dak + Javonte + Pickens + Ferguson have gone for combined salary multipliers of:

3.64x
3.83x
4.26x

On top of this, the Panthers trio of Bryce + RB1 + TMac has gone for 3.8x in two of four (without TMac contributing more than ~3x in any game this year), and the duo of Bryce + RB1 has gone for 4.25x and 4.66x in two of five games to start this year, after going for 5.84x and 5.91x in two of three games to end last year.

Basically, what we’ve talked about all week ::

There are clear paths to the downside here. But Dak + 2 or 3 + one or two Panthers and Bryce + 1 or 2 + 2 or 3 Cowboys is a very live way to build for this week’s slate.

No big revelation or anything, of course; but just some numbers to back up what we’ve been seeing/saying.

sat. night ROSTER-BUILDING ANGLES INVOLVING QBs ::

My highest-roi rosters on the weekend all have the same quarterback.

The top three of these rosters are hand-builds from tonight — all variations off a roster that showed up for me in the bink machine in my very first build of the week.

The second image shows the simulated runout for the highest-roi option of the bunch.

That quarterback?

Justin Herbert.

The stack?

Herbert + all three of his wideouts + Waddle.

The thinking?

The ceiling is there. We’ve said that all week, and have then painted the picture to the downside.

But what if it plays to the upside?

And what if no one is on it?

I’m still messing around with things, but I have not yet found another quarterback setup that’s really standing out to me on this slate.

A guy I’ve continued circling around over the last 24 hours is Spencer Rattler. Before I went to bed last night, he was included on a list of QBs I was strongly considering making my “other four/five guys” (the expected four/five away from Dak and Bryce).

That list was Maye // Mac // Darnold // Rattler.

Today, while prepping for the Winner Circle pod, I made a new list. That list was Love // Stafford // Rattler // Maye.

Notice, of course, that Rattler was on both. As I talked about in the pod, there’s a good chance Rattler is hitting (salary-considered) if Maye is hitting, and he creates more flexibility on a tight week for pricing and comes with a more condensed set of targets (who are also cheaper). Like Herbert, Rattler has popped for me in the Sims and the Bink Machine this week, but I have overridden that with my ball-knowing (i.e., I really like this New Orleans offense — I’ve been saying it since Week 1 — but they’re not explosive, and I think the Patriots have a strong defense). But as I mentioned in Winner Circle tonight, I’ve been treating the Patriots like a really good team in the betting streets, and yet, I took them on the moneyline in this one, as I didn’t feel confident in the fairly tight spread. I think the Saints will keep this a competitive game throughout. They’re less talented, but they are well-prepared and well-coached. Outside of that Seattle game — which went off the rails very early, and tilted the game the wrong way — they have been consistently competitive against good teams. And if we all think the Pats are scoring points here…doesn’t that stand to reason the Saints could be scoring points as well?

Even when I went to spend some time hand-building this one tonight, I couldn’t actually bring myself to save the double-stack version I was building, and I instead shifted to Rattler // Shaheed (which the Sims, unsurprisingly were not as fond of).

I do think Rattler has to have an outlier game for this stack to work. But I think it could be in play as a down-the-line option for me, where I wouldn’t have as much bankroll on it as the Herbert one (which I can really get behind), but where I could have 5% to 10% on it.

With all that, I’m currently playing around with the idea of ::

Herbert as my high-stakes SE options.

A mix and match of lots of variations of the Dak // Bryce stuff across most of my other SE/3-Max.

A slice saved for Rattler.

And nothing else.

Still in consideration for me to squeeze in some allocation ::

Baker
Mac
Darnold
Lawrence
Love
Maye

Sunday, Oct. 12 Updates ::

CHARGERS WR THOUGHTS IN LIGHT OF QJ INJURY NEWS ::

I just saw the QJ news (“trending toward missing,” per Fowler). This will elevate ownership on Ladd and Keenan, but I don’t think the stack will be any more popular than it would have been. And Tre Harris works as a final piece, if you want to really swing for the fences. Net neutral for this setup, really. I would have preferred QJ playing, as ownership on the full stack would have been low enough for really nice ROI already, and no guesswork would have been required. But with QJ out, the bet on a condensed target tree (elevating the chances of a had-to-have-it game) or the bet on Tre Harris getting schemed work as the third piece still kicks in enough juice to the ROI on this one that I don’t think it truly changes much. It just makes it a decision between a couple ways to play it, which could kick this down to the same bankroll allocation as before, but now spread across different builds instead of concentrated on one (with one of my Dak // Bryce rosters moving up to a concentrated-bet range instead).

I don’t see any projections spitting out Tre Harris stuff yet, but I’d put his ceiling at around 17 DK points (5-60-1), and I’d put his general/expected production at around 4-8 DK points. I think he’ll play ~60% of the snaps and have a couple plays designed for him (probably a downfield shot and a couple slants or quick throws where he’s the first read). To me, he’s not a guy who is going to turn into a special NFL player, so I see him like a guy who should be priced in the ultra-low-$4ks; i.e., underpriced, but still should be priced in a range where low floors and volatility are to be expected. So I think the primary way to build this is with just the two wideouts. But I’ll probably run this out with Harris on a build as well.

PLAYER GRID UPDATE ::

Sunday Morning Update in the Player Grid :: https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-6-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-6-25