JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
initial thoughts :: this slate is going to be absolutely wacky.
for the first time i can ever recall, we have all but one of the playoff spots in each conference set (with the play-in games for those spots each taking place off the main slate), and almost all significant playoff seeding is set as well (with one of the only games that’s important in that regard taking place off the main slate as well).
the broncos will want the number one seed, and so will the patriots, so that buys us two teams we know will be playing starters throughout.
the jags have an outside shot at the one seed, and more importantly, they still haven’t locked up the division, so we can count on them playing this as a normal game.
the texans can win the division with a victory and a jags loss, so we can probably count on them as well.
do the chargers care about winning to protect the six seed? probably not. (i made this note before seeing the news about herbert being rested this week. looks like we already have our information here. here’s what i said initially…) we’ll see if we get any info from harbaugh this week, but we have A) a coach in harbaugh who is a “play all the guys” type of personality, but B) a banged-up quarterback who could use some rest in a meaningless game before the playoffs.
the same goes for the bills. it’s their last game at their historic stadium, but their movement in playoff seeding is minimal, and josh allen is banged up. he’ll start, but how confident are we that he plays the entire game? same goes for james cook. and we probably won’t get answers on this one until the game plays out.
on the nfc side, do the bears care about “two seed vs three seed”? do the eagles care about trying to push for the three seed? do the rams and packers care about games that are essentially meaningless? — or is health/rest before the playoffs more important?
and then of course, we have the strange situation where so many teams are already eliminated — with many having been eliminated for weeks. we usually assume that a team that was just recently eliminated will continue to play with a “business as usual” mindset; but what if you’ve been out of the playoffs for weeks? do the chiefs take a look at the young guys? do the falcons shut down drake london? what other weirdness might we run into?
here’s an early-guess primer from me, which we can rearrange as we get more information ::
PLAYING AS NORMAL ::
– dolphins
– patriots
– texans
– cowboys (probably)
– giants
– browns
– bengals
– saints
– falcons (with possibility for a london shut-down)
– vikings
– titans
– jaguars
– cardinals (for whatever that’s worth)
– broncos
– raiders
– commanders
– lions
– jets
AT RISK OF DOING SOMETHING DIFFERENT ::
– colts (riley leonard)
– packers
– rams
– chargers (confirmed)
– chiefs
– eagles
– bears
– bills
if leaning on the “playing as normal” teams, we have opportunity for ::
– achane vs pats
– pats vs dolphins (albeit a guessing game on who might hit)
– texans offense v colts (long-shots for dfs)
– cowboys potentially closing the season strong vs the giants
– dart & co potentially closing the season strong vs dallas
– shough & co v falcons (& falcons pieces on the other side, albeit in a tough matchup)
– jags offense finishing strong vs tennessee
– (maybe a signature final game from cam ward vs the jags)
– michael wilson & trey mcbride as focal points vs a rams team likely resting some players (that’s the sean mcvay way)
– broncos offense vs a chargers team that may or may not be playing this game as normal
– lions sure to go all-out vs the bears
– bears potentially interesting in response
early reports are rams will not rest starters, and eagles could
i’m not sure i buy the rams one. we’ve seen this in past years, where reports say a team won’t rest starters, and then they sit them after a few series. mcvay was a pioneer in not playing his guys in the preseason, and he has been proactive in the past in getting his guys rest // protecting health in the last week of the regular season. if these reports hold, i would heighten the risk assessment on rams pieces in any risk/reward balance.
on the eagles, we hopefully get more news throughout the week. if the eagles legitimately rest starters, or if they are expected to play limited snaps, tank bigsby would be really interesting.
there has also been a ton of buzz around tanner mckee, with many believing this would be a better passing offense with mckee under center. of course, if hurts is resting, ajb and devonta are also resting, so this one would be mme // leap-of-faith type stuff. but there are tons of credible whispers to make us feel confident that part of the shortcomings of this offense are hurts’ unwillingness to play a certain way, run certain plays, throw to certain parts of the field, etc. teams have caught up to what hurts does well, and he has refused to adapt. (that’s the basis of the multitude of whispers.) so there is a chance that an offense of backups could look good vs washington — enough of a chance to make this a strong mme play if we get it.
stepping outside of team thoughts and into matchup thoughts…
– cowboys at giants
– jags v titans
– lions & bears vs each other
– pats v dolphins
– rams v cards
– eagles v commanders
those are the teams that pop, on paper — with the rams and eagles, of course, carrying the biggest question marks.
if lions // bears were in detroit, we would feel more confident in the chances of visiting ceiling.
if dallas // new york were in dallas, we would feel more confident in the chances of visiting ceiling.
the lions and cowboys give us the most concentrated, high-confidence offenses (so of course they’re both in outdoor road games instead of indoor home games!).
the dolphins are a scrappier team than most will give them credit for, and there’s a decent chance this is a good game for the pats rather than a total smash.
the jags should do very well vs tennessee — the question is just the concentration of these points. assume ~70 dk points from lawrence plus some combination of two or three pass catchers. (two weeks ago, the chiefs with minshew getting injured were the first team in two months that failed to get 60-80 from “qb + 3” in this matchup, and last week we were able to take advantage of a concentrated saints offense to get ~70 from “qb + 2.”)
i’ll get deeper into pricing tonight or tomorrow; but this being week 18, i’m focusing high-level first.
as always, it’s also worth noting that A) there is edge on this week, and that B) this edge doesn’t always line up with my own edge in dfs. so lean on me for high-level stuff, and take my more granular thoughts with a grain of salt. lean on mike and hilow and xandamere and others.
it’s a different week than most, and we should treat it as such.
it’s a funny thing about dfs that shough’s 24.9 last week was probably more valuable than maye’s 32.4, as you were able to play shough with a clear double that was definitely going to hit with him if he hit, whereas you had to get really lucky to end up on diggs // rhamondre on your maye builds.
just a reminder of the value of stack certainty.
something we’re always on the lookout for — and will continue to be on the lookout for this week.
qbs under $6k who stand out to me ::
shough
dart
caleb
the speed of the atlanta defense and the opportunity for them to A) protect their coach’s job and B) potentially play spoiler to the bucs (if the bucs win on saturday but the falcons win on sunday, it’s the panthers who win the division over tampa) could make this a tough spot for shough. but with 18+ dk points in five straight, a concentrated set of weapons, and a stretch of genuinely strong play behind him, he has to be the favorite from a “total stack” perspective.
dart has a great matchup vs dallas and it seems the green light is there for him to run if he’s not in a tough matchup. dart’s production has felt a bit smoke-and-mirrors all year, as all of his games of 19+ dk points have featured a rushing score; but he’s also gone for 19+ eight times, which means we can buy the unorthodox means through which his production comes. i keep buying slayton with him and missing, and wan’dale was missing with him till last week (his other two big games this year had come with russ and jameis). the lack of passing production and stackability technically makes him less valuable than shough, but the soft matchup for dart and tougher spot for shough evens the playing field between them a bit.
caleb has only gone for 25+ vs dallas, nyg, cincy, and san fran (all predictable spots), but similar to trevor lawrence earlier in the year: the offense is good enough to give caleb runway in spite of the flaws that still show up in his game. we’ll have to wait on injury news for stacking thoughts. with this being a largely meaningless game, we can assume odunze will be given another week of rest, with luther burden being the big question mark.
we may get more clarity as we move through the week; but right now, running back looks tough.
bijan and gibbs stand out at the top, and bijan’s recent run will probably draw attention to him, but while both guys have high ceilings, both also come with low floors (bijan due to matchup; gibbs due to the nature of his scoring).
achane is on a team that doesn’t score enough points for him to typically be elite at this point; jt is playing houston with riley leonard under center; cook and saquon have workload questions in mostly-meaningless games.
etienne and harvey are humorously overpriced.
chase brown has shown ceiling, but his role is still a bit of a concern at his price tag.
kyren is in a mostly-meaningless game with a coach who is known for resting players.
hampton is in a meaningless game, against denver.
jacobs is in a meaningless game, against minnesota.
good luck with jeanty.
and then we’re down to cheaper guys (none of whom look like slam dunks).
obviously, none of this is to say that “none of these guys can hit.” it’s just to say it’ll be tricky to identify the best places to go.
that note brings to mind another point:
if you’ve been struggling through my “lean into certainty” content/approach this year, and you typically benefit from volatility, this is a great week for you to lean in heavily.
if, instead, the “lean into certainty” approach resonates with you, recognize that you don’t have to attack this week’s slate as heavily as others. there’s always next week.
i stepped away from “final week of the regular season” play years ago, as this week doesn’t line up with my own personal edge.
i heard lord reebs say the other day that you basically can’t play anything but cash games on this week (and the reason my podcast with pete ends after week 17 is because he becomes a “cash game king” every year in this week).
i also feel confident that i’ll hop on my podcast with squirrel on friday and he’ll have some unique perspectives that give him edge.
in other words: for true “dfs players,” this week is as good as any other.
for “nfl ball knowers,” this week has lower expected value than others.
you don’t have to play the same volume every week.
know what category you fall in (or what category your style of play falls in), and attack accordingly.
I just saw the report that key Eagles starters are expected to rest.
with running back looking thin, this should be wheels-up on tank bigsby chalk.
i really like bigsby as a runner, and the matchup is great vs washington.
as we did repeatedly last week with jeanty, however (highlighting the fact that we should keep in mind that he had been at 12.1 or fewer points in 4 or 5), we should keep in mind that saquon barkley has cracked 20 dk points only three times all year.
probably the sharpest way to play bigsby would be to actually bet on the offense — i.e., a mckee + bigsby roster (with or without a pass catcher).
it’s still early in the week for a conventional week — and it’s especially early for week 18, where information develops deeper into the week. we’re a long way off from having to make any decisions on all this; but these are some early thoughts worth keeping in mind.
mckee + bigsby + dotson costs $13.7k. if we get real news this week that hurts // saquon // ajb — devonta will sit, and that dotson is playing, this becomes interesting.
i’ve heard some sharp people connected to the nfl hypothesize that mcvay could approach practice as normal this week, and lead his players to believe they are playing this week’s game as normal, in order to keep his players sharp…and that he’ll then pull them a couple drives in.
this is a complicated situation this week, in that puka, in particular, is probably the top play on the entire slate if he’s playing a full game vs arizona. but we probably won’t know if he’s playing a full game.
another tricky component is that the rams game becomes a bit more meaningful if the 49ers lose on saturday.
if the 49ers lose on saturday and the rams win on sunday, the rams move to the 5 seed.
the rams tend to take on a “we’ll play anyone anywhere” mentality, and this often directs their decision-making. they have rested players in the past with minimal playoff seeding on the line.
but is this year’s playoff seeding minimal?
obviously, the rams already lost to the panthers this year. but they would surely prefer the 5 seed (playing the winner of the nfc south) over the 6 seed (playing at philly or chicago). would they prefer this enough to risk the health of their players? we probably won’t know.
if the 49ers win on saturday and the rams are locked into the 6 seed, i’ll treat rams pieces as high-risk — and if puka projects for somewhat heavy ownership, i’ll consider this to be mathematical edge.
if the 49ers lose on saturday, it all becomes a lot more complicated, where we probably won’t know what the rams will do until a few drives into their game…and where the difference between one approach and the other is “puka as an overpriced dud” and “puka as the top on-paper play on the slate.”
just some thoughts on the wide receiver position over $5k ::
– puka :: uncertain playing time
– chase :: ceiling is there, but paths are narrow vs cle
– arsb :: **YES**
– olave :: yes…but strongly preferred with shough over solo
– ceedee :: takes a leap of faith; $7.3k and his best games on the year are 27.2, 25.0, and 23.2. the old “bank on 14 targets” ceedee has gone the way of davante, but the ceiling is still technically there. probably best in rosters built around this game, but he can be justified as a one-off
– pickens :: 29+ in three of seven since the bye; the floor is low, but the ceiling is high. i’m intrigued.
– nico :: division opponent. we’ve been on this this year. i believe the stat from a few weeks ago was he hadn’t gone over 20 vs a non-division opponent since late 2023, and had gone 9 of 12 at 26+ vs division opponents in that same stretch. he posted 23.5 vs arizona after we hit on this; but still, he has 16 or fewer dk points in 8 of 10 games vs non-division opponents this year, and he has 21.5+ in 4 of 5 vs division opponents. the biggest concern here is this game getting away from the texans and the offense going into a shell.
– drake london :: i’m buying the lack of continuity with cousins, and i think he could get shut down anyway. it won’t surprise me if he hits, but it’s not for me.
– ajb :: expect rest
– jamo :: **YES**
– michael wilson :: **YES**
– diggs :: depends on pats injuries. if he has to play 80% of snaps, the upside is there — though there is some risk the pats don’t play this entire game, especially if they’re scoreboard-watching denver and the broncos are pulling away from trey lance and the chargers
– wan’dale :: fade my thoughts, apparently
– tee higgins :: copy/paste ja’marr thoughts
– sutton :: very narrow paths to ceiling
– ladd :: lance
– devonta :: expect rest
– jefferson :: what if?
– mclaurin :: josh johnson
– waddle :: quinn ewers
– jakobi :: you have to feel the ceiling is higher than he’s shown with jax so far
– djm :: honestly, has ceiling, and could go overlooked. if no odunze, he looks interesting — especially with burden banged up
– qj :: lance
– burden :: banged up — but if he’s out there, he’s interesting
– btj :: dart throw
– watson :: ceiling, but a meaningless game, vs min. could be tune under center as well. i’m not into it.
– parker washington :: tough to predict; but we know he can hit
This slate is loaded with moving parts — rest candidates, backup quarterbacks stepping into starting roles, and cheap stacks that could blow up tournaments. Inside, you’ll find the full breakdown of how to navigate the chaos, including a detailed player pool, exposure strategies for boom-or-bust situations, and the specific stack constructions that tie it all together.
