JM’s Journal 18.25
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS
TUESDAY, DEC. 30TH ::
INITIAL BIG-PICTURE VIEW OF SLATE ::
Initial thoughts :: this slate is going to be absolutely wacky.
for the first time i can ever recall, we have all but one of the playoff spots in each conference set (with the play-in games for those spots each taking place off the main slate), and almost all significant playoff seeding is set as well (with one of the only games that’s important in that regard taking place off the main slate as well).
the broncos will want the number one seed, and so will the patriots, so that buys us two teams we know will be playing starters throughout.
the jags have an outside shot at the one seed, and more importantly, they still haven’t locked up the division, so we can count on them playing this as a normal game.
the texans can win the division with a victory and a jags loss, so we can probably count on them as well.
do the chargers care about winning to protect the six seed? probably not. (i made this note before seeing the news about herbert being rested this week. looks like we already have our information here. here’s what i said initially…) we’ll see if we get any info from harbaugh this week, but we have A) a coach in harbaugh who is a “play all the guys” type of personality, but B) a banged-up quarterback who could use some rest in a meaningless game before the playoffs.
the same goes for the bills. it’s their last game at their historic stadium, but their movement in playoff seeding is minimal, and josh allen is banged up. he’ll start, but how confident are we that he plays the entire game? same goes for james cook. and we probably won’t get answers on this one until the game plays out.
on the nfc side, do the bears care about “two seed vs three seed”? do the eagles care about trying to push for the three seed? do the rams and packers care about games that are essentially meaningless? — or is health/rest before the playoffs more important?
and then of course, we have the strange situation where so many teams are already eliminated — with many having been eliminated for weeks. we usually assume that a team that was just recently eliminated will continue to play with a “business as usual” mindset; but what if you’ve been out of the playoffs for weeks? do the chiefs take a look at the young guys? do the falcons shut down drake london? what other weirdness might we run into?
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
JM’S INITIAL TEAM-MOTIVATION LEVEL PROGNOSIS ::
Here’s an early-guess primer from me, which we can rearrange as we get more information ::
PLAYING AS NORMAL ::
- dolphins
- patriots
- texans
- cowboys (probably)
- giants
- browns
- bengals
- saints
- falcons (with possibility for a london shut-down)
- vikings
- titans
- jaguars
- cardinals (for whatever that’s worth)
- broncos
- raiders
- commanders
- lions
- jets
AT RISK OF DOING SOMETHING DIFFERENT ::
- colts (riley leonard)
- packers
- rams
- chargers (confirmed)
- chiefs
- eagles
- bears
- bills
INITIAL THOUGHTS ON VIABLE PLAYS FROM TEAMS WITH NORMAL WEEK 18 OUTLOOK ::
If leaning on the “playing as normal” teams, we have opportunity for ::
- achane vs pats
- pats vs dolphins (albeit a guessing game on who might hit)
- texans offense v colts (long-shots for dfs)
- cowboys potentially closing the season strong vs the giants
- dart & co potentially closing the season strong vs dallas
- shough & co v falcons (& falcons pieces on the other side, albeit in a tough matchup)
- jags offense finishing strong vs tennessee
- (maybe a signature final game from cam ward vs the jags)
- michael wilson & trey mcbride as focal points vs a rams team likely resting some players (that’s the sean mcvay way)
- broncos offense vs a chargers team that may or may not be playing this game as normal
- lions sure to go all-out vs the bears
- bears potentially interesting in response
