JM’s Journal 11.25

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

TUESDAY, NOV. 11 ::

EARLY WEEK 11 QB THOUGHTS ::

Early qb thoughts :: good lord.

josh allen in a spot where he could be unleashed, at only $7k

justin herbert with a broad range of outcomes (three games in his last seven under 16; three games in his last seven of 26+) in a soft matchup vs the jags

caleb williams with ceiling indoors vs the vikings

joe flacco firing things up again, this time in a rematch with the steelers

laugh about it, but jacoby brissett (20.8 // 21.4 // 24.7 // 24.8 in his four starts) playing the banged-up 49ers

matthew stafford and sam darnold squaring off, in a game where both defenses are good, but where both offenses will keep pushing and things could easily break to the upside

a tough matchup vs the browns, but you can’t put it past lamar to have a strong game

mahomes vs nix, a rung below stafford and darnold, but with the same idea: both offenses will keep pushing, and things could break to the upside

the funny thing is that lamar could score 18, the “could break to the upside” games could underwhelm, allen could go for 24, herbert could go for 17, caleb could get confused by the vikings and disappoint, flacco could land on the lower end of his range against an improved pittsburgh defense and lagging pittsburgh offense, and brissett could finally see the wheels fall off. maybe nothing pops at all this week, when it’s all said and done.

but there sure are options.

and mathematically, we’re likely to see something from this group (and possibly even something from outside this group) pop.

EARLY RB THOUGHTS ::

Early rb thoughts :: honestly, how confident are you that you’re getting more than 3x from anyone?

cmc has tremendous floor/ceiling range, but he’s gone over 3x in 2/10 games, and i’d give him roughly that same 20% chance here.

bijan can do it, but it’s pretty confident to say he’s likelier to score 23 or fewer (6/9 games, including four straight) than to blow up for a big game in what’s still a tough run game matchup vs the panthers.

encouragingly, jacobs saw 26 touches on mnf, but the only games in which he has justified his salary have come vs cincy and dallas. the giants are also a soft matchup, and he may be the likeliest of these top 3 to pop for a big game, but it’s still fair to be cautious here, on a team that’s been limiting his workload, and that should be in control of a game against a dart-less giants team.

james cook ($7.3k, vs tampa) can certainly get there. but given the matchup, he’ll need pass game volume or some explosive runs. it probably won’t come though plain old down-to-down consistency on the ground.

kyren, of course, has topped 22.4 once all year. he’ll need touchdowns to get there.

derrick henry is playing cleveland.

judkins is on a team that probably won’t score many times vs baltimore.

and then we’re down to fairly unreliable guys in jaylen warren (albeit vs cincy), rachaad white, kimani vidal, etc.

you may have noticed i skipped over dowdle. the panthers’ loss to the saints doesn’t inspire confidence, but teams have had a lot of success going big against the falcons and running all over them. dowdle is getting pricey at $6.8k, and he’s coming off a 15.3-pointer vs an average run d but bad all-around team in the saints; but he did go for 30+ in his three other games in this role. to me (early in the week, of course), jacobs and cook are the running backs outside of dowdle most likely to go for 4x, but dowdle would seem to have the best shot of everyone.

i highlight that 4x target because if all we’re getting is 3x across the board, and if we see a week in which passing attacks might have success, well…what about guys like swift ($5.8k), chase brown ($5.7k), aaron jones ($5.5k), woody marks ($5.4k), etc.?

of course, we also explored this thought last week, and while cmc, cook, henry, etc did disappoint, achane and gibbs went for monster games. as we move deeper into the week, we may eventually decide that high-priced rb is lower-certainty than normal, but that our best bet for a big game still comes from that group, and we should therefore be hunting there regardless.

on the flip side, however: just because that happened last week doesn’t mean it’ll happen this week. what if we see the big scores at wr that we didn’t get last week? and what if rb runs cold?

clearly, this is a wide-open week, at multiple positions.

EARLY WR THOUGHTS ::

Wide receiver is fun.

all of jsn // puka // ja’marr // egbuka // nico have pretty clear paths to the upside, while jj and drake london can have a strong case made.

we also have cheaper guys like tee higgins, mhj, and addison who can go for big games, and we have guys even cheaper than that who can go for strong games in jauan, qj, tez, etc.

again: it’s looking like a pretty wide-open week

EARLY BEARS/VIKINGS THOUGHTS ::

I’m playing out the bears // vikings game in my mind like this ::

bears have a hard time getting things going early on, with maybe some splash plays // flashy plays, but with negative plays ending early drives as caleb gets used to what he’s seeing from flores.

vikings lean into this style of game on offense, with a balanced attack. o’connell is always aggressive through the air, with plays designed for intermediate throws and opportunities for chunk gains, but if the vikings are controlling things, a steady mix of run game should be part of the plan.

this could lead to a slow ramp-up to this one, and could finish us in something like a 24-20 game.

i think that’s likeliest.

the push would have to come from chicago.

we know ben johnson will always lean toward aggressiveness, so that’s at least one portion of the equation solved for us. so ultimately, it comes down to whether or not caleb can get things going early.

this would probably come from splash plays, rather than from the bears driving the field in traditional fashion — though this doesn’t necessarily mean we’re looking to roster luther burden or anything; it’s more just getting a feel for how an early jump-start would come together.

ultimately, caleb against the vikings — at this point in his development — probably means we don’t get a standout game environment (and of course, o’connell will be happy to lean into that if it happens, as he’s still ideally hoping to win games with mccartney rather than through mccarthy). but there are, at least, some angles to think about here. namely: if caleb hits, does a pass catcher hit with him? or, is it something unique like caleb + addison?

all in all, an interesting spot to play around with.

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

EARLY TIGHT END THOUGHTS ::

We don’t seem to have the value firepower at tight end this week that we’ve had in recent weeks.

last week, we were all over njoku (10.1 points at $3.2k), andrews (10.4 points at $3.4k), schultz (18.3 points at $3.6k!), and otton (17.2 points at $3.9k!). as we talked about heading into that week: we’ve been able to target sub-$4k tight ends and get scoring ranges a) comparable to high-$4k wideouts, and b) far ahead of sub-$4k wideouts.

but this week, things are thinned out a bit.

maybe we like schultz at $3.9k (albeit in a spot, vs tennessee, where the texans and their poor offensive line should have time to throw to wideouts).

maybe we like theo johnson at $4k with russell wilson rushing less (and therefore throwing the ball more) than dart.

maybe we like otton at $4.2k, but instead of facing the pats’ te-generous defense, he’s facing the bills’ te-stingy defense.

but it’s not as plentiful or as high-confidence as it has been.

BRISSETT-MCBRIDE THOUGHTS ::

Speaking of tight ends, here’s where we now stand after four games of jacoby brissett + trey mcbride — now $11.2k in salary (target score of 40-45) ::

45.9
50.2
41.3
52.1

they’ve done it against indy and dallas.

they’ve also done it against green bay and seattle.

can they do it against a banged-up san francisco defense?

i’d say the odds are in their favor.

WEEK 10 BETTING RECAP // WEEK 11 BETTING PREVIEW ::

Betting recap ::

another really successful weekend.

the browns burned us, as we had one unit on the browns +1.5, and also had the browns in a three-team parlay (one unit at +209) of browns, broncos, and lions to win.

other than that, it was all aces:

one unit on the pats +2.5

one unit on the ravens -3.5

one unit on the lions -3

one and a half units on the lions over 29.5 points

a quarter unit apiece on lions over 32.5, 33.5, 36.5, and 39.5.

on the season (which started in week 5 for this), the total tally is +14.62 units.

if you are tailing me on this, just a reminder: betting is not here to make us rich. even if we have an edge, given the unique lens through which i’m able to a) see these teams and b) spot market inefficiencies in certain spots, we should recognize that variance will play a role, and cold streaks are part of betting. don’t bet for the dopamine hit, or for the action. don’t give away money where you don’t have an edge. and i would strongly recommend doing what i’m doing: assess what you would be genuinely comfortable losing if you were at -20 units.

i play $6k each dfs weekend, so i’ve set my unit this year at $300, as i could go -20 units and it would be equivalent to one bad dfs weekend.

i stand to lose less in betting than i stand to lose in dfs.

i also have less to gain in betting.

i’ve been doing some live betting lately (there is serious edge there, though i wonder if there’s a way for us to capitalize on it together, as it happens so fast), and i’ve had to fight the urge a few times already to drop a bet in a spot where i don’t have edge, “just to have some action.” we’re not here for entertainment. we’re here to find edges when they come (and only when they come). too many people wreck their lives with sports betting: not having a plan, chasing losses, betting without edge, putting too much weight in their hopes of winning, etc. if you tail these bets, please set aside 20 units’ worth to lose, and know you can be comfortable with that amount.

there are edges all over the place in life. this is just one place where we can ideally scoop a bit of extra money each year.

with that psa out of the way, here’s what i have out there this week:

a half unit on…

panthers +3.5 at the falcons
bills -6 vs buccaneers
cowboys -3.5 at raiders

a full unit on…

ravens -7.5 at browns
dolphins +1.5 v commanders (this has since moved to the dolphins being favored, but i still like the bet where it’s available now)
bengals +5.5 at steelers
bengals over 21.5 points

plus a 5-pick parlay at +262 of ravens, packers, texans, patriots, and dolphins to win

1.5 units on…

texans -7.5 at titans

FLACCO-CHASE THOUGHTS ::

Piggybacking off the brissett + mcbride pairing…

$14k

target score: 50-55

scores so far:

43.9
70.1
45.4
56.8

this isn’t quite the same point-per-dollar consistency/range as brissett + mcbride, but it’s still really strong for the salary spent.

the pairing is flacco + chase, of course.

i also think tee higgins, chase brown, jaylen warren, and dk metcalf are interesting in this game.

BENGALS BACKFIELD THOUGHTS ::

Cincy is in an interesting situation if perine misses with his high-ankle sprain.

what made chase brown so valuable last year was not his efficiency, but was his workload; but that workload went away this year with perine being trusted, and with brown not performing at a high level.

if perine misses, however, they’ll have to lean on brown here. he played 96% of snaps before the bye with perine going down early, and in this offense, that would make him one of the stronger plays on the entire slate.

perine hasn’t done much this year in the box score, but perine + brown has produced 17.0 dk points per game, which should command a price tag of around $6.7k/$6.8k (and brown should be more explosive on these touches than perine has been).

with this team splitting touches so far this year, we might expect them to continue that without perine; but part of the reason perine has seen the usage he has seen has been the trust they have in him. with these being must-win games, i would expect them to just lean on brown as much as he can handle (and last year, he showed he can handle a full game of them leaning on him).

with jaylen warren seizing control of the pittsburgh backfield and brown likely to see heavy touch volume for the bengals, we might find ourselves with some rosters on which we play both backs from this game.

WEDNESDAY, NOV. 12 ::

SUNDAY MORNING PLAYER GRID UPDATE ::

Sunday morning update is live – https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-11-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-11-25