XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 2 begins with the Commanders visiting the Packers for a game with a 48-point total and Green Bay favored by 3.5. Both teams are coming off dominating Week 1 wins. The Commanders beat the Giants 21-6 while the Packers crushed the Lions 27-13. Of those, the latter is more impressive given that the Lions are an elite offense while the Giants are…well…not. It’s important to remember in Week 2 that we probably know less than we did even in Week 1, because now we have single data points to overreact to. How a team approaches one game, especially one in which they’ve had months to plan, is not necessarily how they will approach every game. Just remember that one game does not tell us all that much, and we need to continue to embrace volatility until we get further into the season and know who these teams are.
Washington
The Commanders backfield in Week 1 started with Austin Ekeler at the beginning of the game, as he played 47% of the total snaps and handled 6 carries while seeing 3 targets. Four of Ekeler’s carries came in the first quarter, and then they seemed to move away from him. Worth noting here is that Ekeler was listed as limited on Monday with a shoulder issue, so it’s possible this popped up during the game and led to his workload being scaled back, or it’s possible the Commanders gave him the start as a nod of respect to the veteran before splitting things how they intended all along. Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt (also known as “Bill” for some reason – and since that’s much briefer, that’s what we’ll call him) handled 10 carries and ran for 82 yards and a score, while Jeremy McNichols had 4 carries. There’s a lot of rushing in this Commanders offense as Jayden Daniels also rushed 11 times while Deebo Samuel got a carry (and a score) as well. That makes it a bit tricky to trust any running back here, and with Bill now at $7k, he’s a bit overpriced if you think he’s playing 35-40% of the snaps and getting 10 touches with no passing game involvement. Again, it’s only one week of data, so don’t read too much into it, but based on that week, I’m a little gunshy of this Commanders backfield. It’s tough to imagine anyone getting 15+ touches, let alone 20. The matchup is tough as a road underdog, and you have to worry about having touchdowns vultured by both Daniels and Deebo. I’ll have some exposure here in MME, but not a lot.
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In the passing game, Deebo and Terry McLaurin led the way with 77% and 79% of the snaps, respectively. I was a bit surprised to see McLaurin play that much, given that he had very few reps in training camp due to an ankle injury and a contract dispute, but while he was out there plenty, he wasn’t that involved. I’d expect his involvement to ramp up this week, though if you ask me to guess, I’d guess Deebo is still a slight favorite to lead the team in targets. Last week, Deebo had 10 targets while McLaurin had 4, and while this gap should close, I don’t think it’s going to completely close in a single week. Both of these guys are interesting at reasonable prices of $8,600 for Deebo and $9k for McLaurin, with a slight preference to Deebo for me (I like WRs who also get carries!). Last week, we saw all of Noah Brown, Jaylin Lane, Chris Moore, and even Luke McCaffrey get wide snaps behind the two main guys, with Brown leading the way. Brown also missed time in training camp, so it’s possible his role could grow as he gets healthier. I think he has the most upside of this group, and at just $3,200, he’s worth playing in some lineups. He’s also historically been much better against zone defenses, which the Packers played at a league-high rate last week and will likely do again to help limit Daniels’ rushing ability. Moore and Lane can be sprinkled in tournaments, while McCaffrey is a very thin dart throw who only played 5 snaps last week and could vanish entirely in any given game.
At tight end, Zach Ertz played a respectable-but-not-awesome 64% of the snaps, though he managed to be second on the team in targets and scored their only passing touchdown, while John Bates played 53% of the snaps without a target. Ertz is aging and no longer has the same kind of explosiveness we’ve seen from him in the past, but he’s still a capable pass catcher. At $5,800, he’s a little on the expensive side for his likeliest range of outcomes and will be one of those “he’s in my player pool but not a guy I’m trying to push a lot of exposure of” plays, while Bates at $600 is a thin dart throw (Bates saw just 13 targets last season in 17 games).
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