Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- I’m writing this game up first this week, before any practice reports are released, because we have a good idea of the health of both squads. We’ll circle back later in the week if there are any drastic changes.
- Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy appears set to return as the starter in Minnesota. Carson Wentz is scheduled to undergo season-ending surgery on his non-throwing shoulder after playing two games with a dislocation and torn labrum.
- The Lions remain one of the healthier teams as we approach the midway point in the season.
- Detroit pieces are unlikely to project well in this game given current roles and expected volume.
- The Vikings have played from two-high at the highest rate in the league, and Lions skill-position players have stark splits against the primary alignment this season.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How MINNESOTA Will Try To Win ::
The Vikings have had very little continuity this season, mostly due to their quarterback situation. McCarthy started the season but injured his ankle in under two starts. Wentz then came in and smoked the Bengals and played the Steelers to a three-point game before dislocating his shoulder and tearing his labrum in a tight win over the Browns. He gutted the injury out for the following two games but the team dropped both to the Eagles and Chargers. And now they are expecting McCarthy back under center after Wentz elected surgery to fix his shoulder. Also consider the three-game suspension for Jordan Addison to start the season. That effectively shakes out to three distinct seasons through seven games, maybe more – with each change a new puzzle to piece together for head coach Kevin O’Connell. There are some teams still searching for their identity – the Vikings have not been able to truly hammer down what they want their team to look like on the gridiron. We also must remember that McCarthy has all of two professional starts under his belt, effectively making him a “rookie in Week 3 of his first season.” As such, I don’t know how much we can read into their 14th-ranked pass rate over expectation (PROE), or modest 57.1 plays per game and 28:30 average time of possession. This team is battling.
We now have a three-game sample with both Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones healthy and on the field together this season, during which time neither back has eclipsed a 60% snap rate or 16 opportunities. They now face a Lions team forcing opponents into the seventh highest PROE, with only the Bears and Browns below neutral this season. The Lions face the fourth-fewest rush attempts per game (22.1) while also holding opponents to 4.0 yards per carry (11th), meaning there isn’t a ton of upside from this backfield in Week 9.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
The Lions have run the fourth-most man coverage this season (38.0%), against which it’s been all Justin Jefferson for the Vikings. That said, he’s only averaged 0.44 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) on 0.33 targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.85 yards per route run (YPRR), albeit while notching an elite 56.8% air-yards share. In short, the Vikings have really struggled against man in 2025. Much of that sample is dominated by the five games started by Wentz, and McCarthy has fared much better against man in his small two-game professional sample. McCarthy went 13-for-18 for 180 yards with two touchdowns, and three interceptions against man in Weeks 1 and 2, with a 101.4 rating, 10.0 yards per attempt (YPA), and 0.54 fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB) – orders of magnitude better than the 0.19 FP/DB and 4.43 YPA of Wentz. This appears to be a matchup tailor-made for Jefferson. Jalen Nailor and Adam Thielen have been splitting snaps since Addison returned from suspension, for an offense heavily reliant on 11-personnel. Finally, tight end T.J. Hockenson has still not looked right after his multi-ligament knee injury on Christmas Eve 2023, and the matchup also does him no favors.
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