Vikings (

21.75) at
Giants (

19.25)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Vikings continue to have issues along the offensive line, with both Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill missing practice on Wednesday. The team likely needs one of those two to play on Sunday, or else they will be starting two backup tackles. Center Ryan Kelly also did not practice on Wednesday.
• New York’s injury list is obviously long, as far as players whose seasons are over on offense, with most of the current injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
• The premier matchup likely to decide how this game ultimately plays out is going to be Brian Flores’ aggressive defense against Jaxson Dart. More specifically, his ability to turn negative plays into positive ones, either through scrambles or deep passing.
• There aren’t a ton of plays that stand out on paper from this one.

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How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings have been in the middle of the pack in PROE throughout the season, and up until two weeks ago, head coach Kevin O’Connell was doing his rookie quarterback zero favors. We talked a lot about how the structure of the offense placed too much on J.J. McCarthy’s plate, leading to one of the highest downfield throw rates and deepest aDOTs in the league. And then O’Connell finally changed the structure of the offense, simplifying things for his rookie quarterback while, in his words, allowing him to “go play football.” McCarthy’s underlying metrics skyrocketed to a 66.0% completion rate, 8.79 yards per attempt, and a robust 0.82 FP/DB in the previous two games, with a solid 5-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio in that span. For whatever reason, the connection still hasn’t been there when targeting alpha wide receiver Justin Jefferson, with throws either a bit off target or Jefferson himself experiencing mental lapses. To me, and from what I saw on film, those are completely capable of being remedied, and Jefferson is now at his cheapest salary since early in his rookie season at just $6,000. Finally, McCarthy has only 47 pass attempts in the previous two weeks, both coming in wins. He accounted for three touchdowns in both of those games, which were only the second and third times this season he has done so.

The volume on the ground for the Vikings has been entirely dependent on the game environments they have found themselves in this season. Now, consider a strict timeshare between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, and we’re left with very little upside from a single player here. That said, the Giants continue to bleed production on the ground, ranking dead last in yards allowed per carry and explosive run rate allowed, paving at least a thin path to upside either back. Of note, Mason actually averages more yards per carry and has a slightly higher explosive run rate, in addition to seeing 63.6% of the team’s carries inside the five this season. That said, he has not played more than 36% of the team’s offensive snaps since Week 9 and has not seen more than 11 totes since Week 7. The question then becomes, can either back see enough volume to matter this week?

Another significant change to the structure of the offense over the past two weeks has been a much higher emphasis on 12-personnel, leaving only Jefferson as a near every-down pass catcher. Addison played 67% of the offensive snaps or fewer in consecutive games, Jalen Nailor has been held to 58% or fewer, and T.J. Hockenson is typically going to peak at around 80% of the offensive snaps. Josh Oliver is now up into the 60-65% snap rate range but saw just three combined targets the previous two weeks, two of which were touchdowns in week 14. On paper, it is really on Jefferson for the Vikings, although even his target volume is entirely up to the game environment to decide due to the tendencies of this offense. That means he is best played in conjunction with a member of the Giants, most likely to be Jaxson Dart.

How new york Will Try To Win ::