GAME Overview ::
BY mike johnson >>
- Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward will be thrown directly in the fire with one of the toughest possible matchups to start his NFL career.
- A preseason injury to Titans running back Tyjae Spears leaves Tony Pollard in a likely workhorse role to start the season.
- The Broncos defense was near the top of the league last offseason and has added firepower in the draft and free agency.
- Denver’s offense was rotational at multiple positions last season but is likely to have much more constant personnel in 2025.
- Tennessee’s defense was a respectable 17th in total DVOA in 2024 and made several key improvements to their personnel this offseason. They were noticeably better against the run last season.
HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Titans enter Week 1 of the NFL season with an incredible amount of excitement around the team and organization thanks to the arrival of Ward via the No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft. After an ugly first season of the Brian Callahan era, led primarily by Will Levis, the Titans were rewarded for their struggles with the dynamic and poised Ward. If you watched Titans games last season, it would seem hard to draw many positives from the tape, but the reality is things can change quickly in the NFL and the biggest factor in those changes comes at the quarterback position. Months of building to this moment have brought us to Ward’s debut, although it is hard to imagine a tougher spot than this one – on the road, playing at a high altitude, and facing arguably the league’s best defense.
While we can look at historical data and coaching tendencies in many instances to guide us for what Week 1 will look like for many teams, the Titans present an interesting case. Callahan’s first season in Tennessee was basically a lost cause from the start and he was always trying to mask the deficiencies of his quarterback. Prior to that, Callahan built a strong reputation due to his previous five-year role as the offensive coordinator for the Bengals. However, in Cincinnati, the play-calling duties were handled by head coach Zac Taylor, so even that sample size is hard to trust. Additionally, during Callahan’s time in Cincinnati, he was largely working with elite passing game talent. That is not that case, at least not right now, for the Titans. These things all combine to create a unique situation where there is a lot of past data we can look at to try to gauge how they will play, but it is hard to have much certainty of what it will look like when the bullets start flying.
Part of the problem for evaluating how Tennessee’s offense will look is that what we saw in preseason may not be relevant once they encounter Denver’s elite defense. The Titans’ passing game appears to be timing-based in many regards, while the Broncos’ dominant pass rush is likely to mess with that timing. Likewise, Denver is coming off a season where they ranked first in the NFL in run defense DVOA. In addition, the Denver secondary is ELITE. Already boasting 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain II, and rising star Riley Moss, the Broncos first-round selection at 20th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft was cornerback Jahdae Barron out of Texas, who was the Jim Thorpe Award winner as the nation’s top defensive back. The rich get richer.
The Titans will be without Spears, leaving Pollard in a workhorse role. However, he is likely to have a tough time finding room to run. Their top wide receiver is veteran Calvin Ridley. However, Ridley has been extremely matchup-dependent throughout his career, feasting on weaker cornerbacks and struggling in tougher matchups – this week is about as tough as it gets. The result of this is the Titans’ primary and preferred ways of moving the ball are likely to be bottled up for the opening week. This will leave them relying on Ward to make quick decisions and/or improvise to keep drives alive and get them into scoring position. Expect tight end Chig Okonkwo, who appears destined for a full-time role after rotating last year, to be a favorite target in this matchup, while Ward will also likely check down to Pollard and his secondary receivers at a higher-than-normal rate.
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