Game Overview ::
By PAPY324 >>
- Titans DT Jeffery Simmons and S Xavier Woods both missed practice Wednesday with hamstring injuries, while DT C.J Ravenell sat out due to an ankle issue.
- Texans QB C.J. Stroud missed practice Wednesday with a concussion, TE Harrison Bryant missed with a shoulder injury, and S Jalen Pitre also sat out due to a concussion.
- The Titans are the worst team in football by a sizeable margin. They do nothing well.
- Cam Ward looks like a bust, but to be fair, his supporting cast is so bad it’s hard to judge him accurately.
- Calvin Ridley might return this week, but the Titans’ passing game has the worst matchup in the league.
- The Titans backfield is a mind-numbing split, but even if you could predict who gets more work, they’re still likely to fail in this matchup.
- Davis Mills is cheap for a guy who threw the ball 45 times last week, but most of that was due to game script.
- Nico Collins has seen double-digit targets for three straight games and is too cheap for his role/talent.
- Woody Marks played 80% of the snaps last week, and the field seems to have not taken notice.
- The Texans defense is curiously not the most expensive option on the slate. They blanked the Titans in Week 4.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How houston Will Try To Win ::
The 4-5 Texans come into Week 11 fresh off a wild 36-29 comeback victory against the Jaguars. The Texans were losing, 29-10, to start the fourth quarter before rattling off 26 unanswered points in the final frame. Last week’s win wasn’t just exciting, it kept the Texans’ season alive. The third AFC wild-card spot is currently shared by the 5-4 Chiefs and Jags. Had the Texans lost, they would almost assuredly have been out of the hunt for a playoff berth, but with a win, they picked up a game on the Jags and are only one game back from sneaking into playoff contention. The Texans have a plus-54 point differential (the Jags are a game ahead in the standings with a minus-15 point differential). The Texans are better than their record, and if they can find a way to make the playoffs, they’ll be a dangerous team. The Texans have been playing slowly (24th in seconds per play) and leaning on the pass (No. 8 in pass rate over expectation [PROE]). Their pass rate (No. 9 overall) is close to their PROE, which indicates the Texans want to pass and aren’t being pushed by game script. Their slow pace, excellent defense, and inefficient passing attack have caused Texans games to yield the league’s lowest total points per game (39.2). It doesn’t help that their offensive line has been putrid (25th ranked by PFF). Their best player upfront is RT Tytus Howard, and he is only ranked 49th at his position out of 76 qualified tackles. The Texans have a lot to play for, but they’ve been winning on defense, and that isn’t likely to change in this game.
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PFP the OWS pennant
The Titans have been hammered (28th in DVOA) on the ground and beaten (22nd in DVOA) through the air. The Titans’ defense has been one of the worst (25th in total DVOA) in the league, and they are attackable in whatever method their opponents prefer. Stroud missed last week and looks likely to miss his second straight game. The Texans tried to hide Mills at the outset of last week’s game, but they let him cut it loose when they got desperate. Mills ended with 45 pass attempts, and while it’s unlikely the Texans want to throw that much, it’s nice to see they’re willing to trust Mills if they get behind on the scoreboard. The Titans are unlikely to push the Texans into elevated passing, but crazy things happen in the NFL, and at least it’s a possibility. The Texans should approach this game with a “pass enough to win” mentality. They’re going to throw, but they’ll likely be a lot more conservative than last week. Expect the Texans to be balanced, and to get more run heavy if they take a lead.
How tennessee Will Try To Win ::
This game doesn’t have a ton of appeal for DFS outside of the Texans defense ($3,700) which is somehow only the second-most expensive defense on the slate. The Titans offense looks unplayable, and while the Texans are going to score, it’s difficult to know how, or how much. There is a good chance the Texans will only do enough on offense to win, which isn’t the type of game where big DFS scores usually occur. With that in mind, let’s look at what might be available in this game.
The Texans Passing Game
Mills ($4,500) is cheap and the Titans are bad, but the game environment doesn’t lend itself to a big DFS score. Mills is probably better than public perception, but there is no reason to let him air it out in a game where the Titans will be lucky to score more than 10 points. I have a feeling projections will like Mills, and he makes sense at his price in the right game environment, but this isn’t one of those games. If you want to play a cheap QB who could pay off on a per-dollar basis, I understand it, but I’ll leave him alone. Collins ($6,700), Xavier Hutchinson ($3,100), Jayden Higgins ($3,500), Christian Kirk ($3,800), Jaylin Noel ($3,400), and Dalton Schultz ($3,900) are the Texans’ primary pass catchers. That’s a lot of names, but they all played meaningful snaps last week. Collins was the only full time (89% of the snaps) WR. Collins has seen 15 // 11 // 10 targets in the past three weeks and is underpriced for his talent and role. The only issue with Nico is game environment. The Texans probably aren’t going to need to throw much to win. I’m torn on Nico, and he’ll probably make at least one of my tighter builds. The rest of the WRs played between 33% – 57% of the snaps, and they all feel like a crap shoot as to which one might hit on any given week. They’re all cheap, and gun to my head I’d take Higgins, but I’ll look elsewhere to save salary if possible. Schultz has seen 11 // 8 targets the past two weeks, and it looks like Mills likes to lean on his TE. The Titans have been tough (No. 7 in DVOA) against TEs, but there aren’t many guys below $4,000 who have a realistic projection of 7-9 targets. Schultz makes for a nice salary saver at a thin position.
The Texans Running Game
Marks ($5,400) played a ton (80%) of the snaps last week, which was a huge bump from what he had been doing up to that point of the season. I’m taking that as a sign the coaching staff is giving him the backfield and Nick Chubb will now be relegated to change-of-pace duties. Early projections have Marks coming in around 7% ownership, and if that holds late into the week, he’s going to be a staple of my tighter builds. Maybe the field doesn’t realize how much he played last week? I’m not sure why people wouldn’t be excited for a guy priced affordably, playing a ton of snaps, in a great matchup, on a team who is a touchdown favorite. What am I missing?
The Titans Passing Game
Ward ($4,300) is cheap, but he’d have to be $3,000 before I’d consider him, and even then, I probably still wouldn’t play him. He has scored under 10 DK points in over half his games, which is hard to do as a QB. He put up a robust 5.0 DK points in his first matchup with the Texans while throwing for a season low 108 scoreless yards with an interception. He gives you nothing with his legs, and this is the worst matchup for a QB in the league. Hard no. Chimere Dike ($4,100), Elic Ayomanor ($3,900), Van Jefferson ($3,100), Calvin Ridley ($4,700), Chig Okonkwo ($3,400), and Gunnar Helm ($2,600) are the Titans’ pass catchers. Dike and Jefferson were the Titans’ full-time WRs in Week 9, but neither of them did anything with the opportunity. Dike flashed useful DFS games in the two previous weeks, but his floor is zero. Jefferson is a washed journeyman who would be the most likely to lose playing time if Ridley returned. Ayomanor showed promise early in the season, but his snaps fell considerably in Week 9, despite him still leading the team in targets. I’m not interested. Ridley could return this week, but I’m not going to play a guy coming off injury in a horrific matchup. Chig was a popular sleeper coming into the year, and he’s done nothing. Helm looks like he has gained ground on Chig, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him get more snaps coming out of the bye. Helm is as punt as punt TEs get, but he is near min priced and should see a handful of targets. If you want to totally punt TE, he’s your guy. Realistically, I’m not going to use anyone from this passing game.
The Titans Running Game
Tony Pollard ($5,300) and Tyjae Spears ($4,900) are splitting snaps. Pollard got more work in Week 9, Spears got more work in Week 8, Pollard got more in Week 7, and Spears got more in Week 6. I have no clue which guy is going to play the most snaps, but it’s likely that the “winner” still only gets 60% of the backfield share. The Texans are comparatively easier to run against, but they’re still at top-10 run defense. The Titans have shown that they want to run but will abandon it when they’re behind, and they’re always behind. This is a split backfield, on a bad team, against a stingy defense. No thanks.
Final Thought
This game has two standout plays in Marks and the Texans’ defense. I have no idea why the Texans’ defense isn’t the most expensive, but I’ll look at it as a gift. Marks isn’t priced for his new role as a feature back, and his early ownership projections seem like the field is overlooking him. I think he’ll catch some steam throughout the week, but unless something drastic happens, Marks is going to be a staple of my tighter builds, often paired with the Texans’ defense. The Texans’ passing game is also interesting, only because everyone is so affordable. I’ll probably do one Mills + Marks + Nico + Schultz + Texans defense stack with no Titans coming back. The idea being that if the Texans run them over, all those guys could give you good price-considered scores. The Titans are the most inept team in the league, and they’re playing the best defense. I have no interest in anyone on their side.
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