Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Houston is likely to throw at an elevated rate due to their offensive line and personnel issues.
- The Rams offense has upgraded its pass game weapons with the addition of WR Davante Adams and second-round rookie TE Terrance Ferguson.
- Houston’s defense was its strength last year and should be very strong once again in 2025 after ranking third in DVOA against both the run and pass last season.
- Rams QB Matthew Stafford is managing a back injury that is unlikely to go away anytime soon.
How houston Will Try To Win ::
Houston only won two non-divisional road games in 2024, against the 4-13 Patriots and the Cowboys without Dak Prescott. The success of the last two seasons under head coach DeMeco Ryans has been impressive, but the reality is that much of their success has been due to the fact that they have been able to pick on the AFC South. Texans QB CJ Stroud returns for his third NFL season with a revamped offensive line and receiving corps. The Houston running game is a huge area of concern as they deal with the absence of Joe Mixon and still have a litany of questions around their offensive line. Alongside a healthy Nico Collins, the Texans added dynamic slot receiver Christian Kirk in free agency and drafted wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the second and fourth rounds, respectively, of the NFL Draft. The tight end position appears that it will operate in some sort of a rotation between veteran Dalton Schultz, the much younger Cade Stover, and recently acquired Harrison Bryant. New offensive coordinator Nick Caley was previously the passing game coordinator for the Rams, where they have operated almost exclusively from “11” personnel (three wide receivers, one tight end, and one running back) in recent years.
In 2024, the Texans offense was hamstrung by their shaky offensive line. Houston ranked 24th in adjusted line yards per carry and 27th in rushing offense DVOA last year, despite Joe Mixon being their primary ball carrier for most of the season. Most of the offensive line has been overhauled, which may have great returns in the long term but is likely to take some time to come together. The Texans backfield currently consists of some combination of veterans Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, and Dare Ogunbowale – along with rookie fourth-round pick Woody Marks. The Rams run defense was below average in most metrics in 2024 and returns most of the same personnel and coaching staff.
Considering the questions around Houston’s offensive line and the chaos in Houston’s backfield at the moment, an elevated pass rate is likely for Week 1. This should actually be a welcome change, as one of the biggest issues former offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik had was running the ball on early downs at far too high a rate, leading to long down and distance situations where defenses teed off on Stroud. This year, and especially in this matchup, a quick strike passing game is likely to be the main approach for the Texans passing game. We can confidently expect Collins and Kirk to be the primary targets and the team to be creative with how they move Collins around the formation. The Texans will certainly attempt to establish some sort of threat on the ground early in the game, but regardless of game script, it would not be surprising to see them shift quickly to a pass-heavy approach. This also presents a situation where if the Texans are able to play with a lead in the second half, they are likely to have to continue passing the ball to move the chains rather than bleeding the clock on the ground like most teams prefer.
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