Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Texans RB Jawhar Jordan (ankle) returned to a limited session Wednesday after missing the team’s Wild Card win over the Steelers.
- WR Nico Collins (concussion) did not practice Wednesday as he works his way through protocol. The short week could prove to be an issue for him after the team played Monday, and an absence could prove to be an issue for offensive coordinator Nick Caley.
- The only two ‘DNP’s for the Patriots Wednesday were OTs Morgan Moses (knee) and Thayer Munford. Both were also present on the injury report ahead of their Wild Card win before playing in normal capacities. Notably, Moses played every offensive snap as the starting left tackle in the win.
- The Texans rank first in points allowed per game (16.7) and yards allowed per game (273.3), while the Patriots rank third in points allowed per game (17.9) and sixth in yards allowed per game (290.3).
How houston Will Try To Win ::
Quarterback C.J. Stroud returned from a three-game absence in Week 13, after which time the Texans ranked 20th in PROE. They averaged only 31.7 pass attempts per game in that span after taking a clear pass-heavy approach with Davis Mills under center in Stroud’s absence. Those 10 games make up the team’s current 10-game win streak when added to their Wild Card win over the Steelers, with a noticeable emphasis on a run-balanced offensive approach for as long as they are able to continue in that stance. Furthermore, this is a team that derives its identity from its defense, highlighted by the fact that only three of its wins within its current 10-game win streak were by more than a possession. Former linebacker and now head coach DeMeco Ryans leverages the strength of his defense to keep them in games late, with an aim at unleashing the dogs late when opposing offensive lines are gassed. That is exactly how they beat the Steelers after taking a 7-6 lead into the fourth quarter and would be the likeliest game plan heading into a game against the Patriots in which they appear to be vastly out-matched offensively, particularly considering they are likely to be without alpha wide receiver Nico Collins due to his concussion. That doesn’t instill too much confidence in their expected ability to control the game environment, considering the general lack of efficiency of their ground game and the strength of the New England run defense.
Speaking of the run game, their playoff win over the Steelers was only the second game all season with a 100-yard rusher for the Texans, also going down as a career high for Woody Marks after the rookie surged past the 100-yard threshold with a 13-yard, fourth-quarter score (112 yards on the ground in total). This has not been a great run game throughout the regular season. In fact, they finished 2025 ranked 28th in yards per carry at 4.0 and 22nd in rush yards per game at 112.0, with the obvious caveat that their defense allows them to stay run-balanced deep into games. Marks truly took over as the lead back in Week 10, seeing 66% of the team’s offensive snaps in six of seven games in which he was neither injured nor the team rested its starters at some point (Week 18). He handled 119 carries between Week 10 and Week 17 to the 38 of Jawhar Jordan and 31 of Nick Chubb. A low 3.4% explosive run rate, 3.48 yards per carry, and just 46.2% of the team’s carries inside the five in that span left him with a modest 13.3 XFP/G as the lead runner, scoring just three touchdowns in his last nine appearances. The pure rushing matchup is middling-to-poor on paper against a Patriots defense holding opposing backfields to 4.2 yards per carry (13th) and 19.9 DK points per game (seventh).
The impending absence of Nico Collins is a big deal for the Texans, considering he and tight end Dalton Schultz have operated as the only two near every-down pass-catchers this season. Collins departed after 38 offensive snaps in the team’s Wild Card win over the Steelers (near the end of the third quarter) and plays a role for the offense that really no other pass-catcher can fill, making this an interesting (and wide range of outcomes) situation against the stout Patriots. I wouldn’t expect Christian Kirk or Xavier Hutchinson to see their roles materially change, with it more likely that Jayden Higgins is asked to step into a more robust role in the offense under the assumption that Collins will be unable to clear concussion protocol on a short week. Hutchinson is simply the player most suited to the X-type role, while Kirk does most of his work out of the slot. It will be an interesting puzzle for offensive coordinator Nick Caley to piece together, to say the least. Kirk erupted in the Wild Card Round, but it was a bit outlier-y after seeing a target on 41% of his routes on a modest 62.9% route participation. He was aligned in the slot on 90.9% of those offensive snaps. That said, the Patriots are an underneath and inside-funnel defensive unit that buckles down in the red zone, meaning there remains a path to another outlier-y type game for the veteran slot man. More interesting, to me, in a GPP setting was the 0.27 TPRR and 2.60 YPRR of Higgins last week, particularly considering I expect him to see the highest bump in route participation and snap rate.
