Texans (

20.75) at
Jaguars (

22.25)

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Houston’s offensive line has been a major cause for concern through two weeks, as they have struggled to open running lanes and pass protect.
• The Texans will welcome back veteran wide receiver Christian Kirk this week and hope he will solve some of their passing game issues.
• Some underlying metrics point to this potentially being a terrific matchup for the Jaguars running game. 
• Jacksonville’s backfield appears to be a two-headed monster with Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie Bhayshul Tuten ready to thrive in Liam Coen’s offense.
• Through two weeks, no skill player in the NFL has underperformed relative to their opportunity more than Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr.
• This week will mark a drastic step up in competition for the Jaguars offense after facing the Panthers and Bengals defenses to start the year.

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How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans have won the AFC South in consecutive seasons, but find themselves sitting at 0-2 and heading on the road for Week 3. Houston has a litany of issues, some on both sides of the ball, and some of them cost them dearly in their narrow loss to the Bucs on Monday night. The first issue for Houston is their offensive line, where they have struggled to get any push in the running game and have continued to be a swinging door for opposing pass rushes. In the 2024 season, Stroud had the highest number of pressured dropbacks in the NFL with a 39.0% pressure rate. He was deemed “responsible” for 12.1% of those pressures. These numbers suggest a significant portion of the pressure he faced was due to offensive line issues. Houston spent the offseason trying to address things, but through two weeks, he is being pressured on a whopping 42% of his drop-backs, per Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, Texans running backs averaged 3.7 yards per carry in Week 1 against the Rams and had 32 rushing yards on 14 carries Monday night prior to the Bucs letting Nick Chubb score from 25 yards out to preserve clock for themselves. Tough scene.

The best news for the Texans is that help is on the way in the form of veteran wide receiver Christian Kirk. Due to their inability to run the ball and struggles protecting Stroud, Houston has been left with few options to start the year. Teams are obviously keying in on star receiver Nico Collins and the other Texans receivers are all below average veterans or relatively raw rookies who have not been able to win one-on-one matchups and get separation. Kirk profiles as exactly the medicine this offense needs, with his ability to run crisp routes, create separation, and give Stroud a dependable target in the middle of the field. 

Kirk’s return, which happens to come against his former team, should help the Texans get ahead of the sticks and have shorter down-and-distance situations. Their aforementioned struggles in rushing and pass protection have led to poor performance on early downs, which results in a lot of third-and-long situations. The Texans have converted only four out of 18 third downs through two weeks (two for nine in both games). In short, a quick passing game is exactly what the Texans need and they should have an elevated rate of early down passing this week. The Jaguars rank 5th in the NFL in zone coverage rate and are around league average in both blitz rate and QB pressure rate. In short, this profiles as a matchup where the veteran savvy of Kirk should allow for more easy completions that on the surface don’t seem like much but in reality relieve pressure on all parts of the Houston offense. The Texans have not had much success running the ball this season, but rank a modest 21st in the NFL in pass rate over expectation due to the structural offensive issues they have been dealing with. This week, we should expect a more aggressive and effective passing game in the short area, which should also allow them to have more success downfield.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars offense has a lot of storylines right now. After trading Tank Bigsby in the aftermath of their season-opening win over Carolina, the team turned loose rookie running back Bhayshul Tuten in Week 2 at the Bengals. Tuten did not disappoint, turning 10 touches into 74 yards and a touchdown. On his touchdown, Tuten made a move that only a handful of backs in the league are capable of. His explosiveness jumped off the screen and he will clearly be a big part of what they do going forward. The success of Tuten did not take away from the fact that Travis Etienne Jr. continues to play at a high level. Etienne averaged over five yards per carry for the second consecutive game while playing two-thirds of the team’s offensive snaps and having a receiving touchdown of his own. Jacksonville head coach Liam Coen’s backfield was extremely productive when he was in Tampa Bay last season and it appears that will be the case again for the 2025 Jaguars.

The backfield’s success is important because the rest of the passing game is having some issues. The team has not been able to get much out of highly touted rookie Travis Hunter, while Brian Thomas Jr. has been among the least productive players in the league with his opportunity through two weeks. Coen also let it slip on Monday that Thomas has been dealing with a previously undisclosed wrist injury. The film from last week showed Thomas failing to make strong efforts for multiple passes, and the potential wrist issue may be an explanation for that. Wide receiver Dyami Brown continues to play a large role and had a nice game, but also dropped what would have been a second touchdown reception on Sunday. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence continues to struggle with accuracy and often misses high and/or wide, which could put his receivers in harm’s way. All things considered, they have to clean things up if they want to be a successful offense. The Jaguars started the season with the Panthers and Bengals – two defenses that most experts expect to be among the league’s worst this season. Things are likely to get tougher from here.

The biggest apparent advantage for the Jaguars in this game will be their running game. Through two weeks, the Jaguars rank first in the NFL in adjusted line yards per carry, while the Texans defense ranks dead last in the same category. This huge advantage at the line of scrimmage and the effectiveness that Jacksonville’s running backs have shown this season scream for the Jaguars to heavily focus their game plan around their backfield. This is a game of cat and mouse, however, and we can expect Houston to anticipate that and put an emphasis on taking those things away. If Houston does take that approach, however, this provides the perfect opportunity for Jacksonville to create some one one-on-one opportunities and get Thomas and/or Hunter going. Coen has explicitly talked about the need to get Thomas on track as soon as possible, so things seem to line up for that to happen here. Ultimately, it will depend on the effort that Thomas puts on the field and whether or not Lawrence can make the throws he needs to make. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

While there are some positive indicators on both offenses, there is also a lot of concern around the game script here. The Texans have not played fast, and while the addition of Kirk should help some things, there is no guarantee that it will do enough to cover up all of their issues. The Texans games this season have had point totals of 23 and 39, with no team scoring more than 20 points yet (and the Bucs only got to 20 on what was essentially the last play of the game). Jacksonville’s box scores have looked solid at first glance as they have scored 26 and 27 points to start the season, but those point totals mask a lot of underlying issues, considering the defenses they have faced. The apparent running game advantage Jacksonville has is one that we should be somewhat skeptical about, as Houston was among the league’s best run defenses the last two seasons, and once again, the Jaguars benefitted from facing weaker opponents to start the year. The clearest path to this game becoming something exciting would be if Houston does press things a little bit defensively, as this would simultaneously give Thomas the opportunity to hit on some big pass plays and put Lawrence in a position to possibly make some mistakes that give Houston short fields and easy points. Either way, the most likely outcome here appears to be a competitive game with two solid defenses facing two offenses that are struggling to find a rhythm.

DFS+ Interpretation ::