Game Overview ::
By >> Mike johnson
- This game should have a playoff atmosphere as the Steelers try to maintain their lead in the AFC North and the Lions try to keep hope alive for a playoff spot.
- Pittsburgh is playing on a short week after their Monday night victory over the Dolphins, while the Lions play next Thursday against the Vikings.
- Detroit’s defense gave up 519 yards to the Rams last week as their injury-ravaged defense struggles to compete.
- The Steelers continue to use a backfield by committee, with Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell both maintaining large roles in the offense.
- Lions games have once again become a source of high scoring and offensive production as their offense becomes more explosive and their defense has their depth challenged.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
After a win over the Dolphins on Monday night, the Steelers still have a one-game lead in the AFC North over the Ravens with a game against the Browns next week prior to a rematch with Baltimore in the season finale. Baltimore, on the other hand, faces the Patriots on Sunday night this week and travels to Lambeau Field to face the Packers on Saturday of Week 17. Considering the difficulty of those matchups for Baltimore and the fact that Pittsburgh should be strong favorites against the Browns, this game is a huge opportunity for the Steelers as they could potentially have the division wrapped up prior to the season’s final week. Their current one-game lead means going 2-0 over the next two weeks along with one Ravens loss will seal things.
The Steelers have operated in an efficient and functional manner offensively this year, but have lacked explosive plays for most of the season. There was a period during the middle of the season where downfield passing was basically non-existent, although that trend was broken in their win over the Ravens as DK Metcalf made multiple big plays and Aaron Rodgers took some calculated shots. Aaron Rodgers ranks dead last in the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempt, which shows just how conservative things have been. Pittsburgh ranks 12th in pass rate over expectation for the season, and 10th in the last month, but the nature of those passes is such that we can see how their approach is primarily on a “death by a thousand paper cuts” approach that moves the ball a few yards at a time. The Steelers approach focuses on eliminating negative plays, giving themselves manageable third downs, and relying on Rodgers to be efficient in those high leverage situations.
Pittsburgh’s running game is middling, as they have a league average offensive line in adjusted line yards, success rate, and win-rate. They split their backfield work between Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell pretty evenly, with Warren taking the majority of the carries while Gainwell is a prominent part of the passing game. Over the last five games, Warren has 58 carries compared to 41 for Gainwell while Gainwell has averaged over six targets per game during that time. The Steelers use four tight ends, with Darnell Washington leading them in snaps due to his size and blocking ability, while Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth rotate in more active receiving roles and Connor Heyward is primarily the “tush-push guy”. Finally, in the receivers room the only consistent production has come from Metcalf. Youngsters Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson have been disappointing, while late-season veteran additions Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdes-Scantling appear to be working themselves into bigger roles for the master of trust issues.
This week the Steelers have a matchup with a Lions team that is one of the best offenses in the league and plays an aggressive style of defense. The Lions profile as a strong run defense, as they hold opponents to only four yards per rush attempt, and are dealing with multiple key injuries in their secondary. The secondary issues are something that Pittsburgh will have to make themselves a bit uncomfortable to exploit. We should expect the Steelers to open things up through the air a bit more than usual in this matchup as they will know they need points to pull off this road upset and Metcalf may be able to play “bully ball” against this secondary. The Lions are near the league lead in man coverage rate and Metcalf can win those one-on-one situations. Expect a healthy dose of Metcalf in this spot, along with the regular approach of heavily involving the running backs and using the tight ends in their usual roles.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.