Game Overview ::
By >> Mike johnson
- This is a massive matchup between two NFC powers with huge divisional and conference playoff implications.
- Seattle QB Sam Darnold has proven to be one of the better offseason acquisitions in the NFL and a relative bargain with his elite efficiency this season.
- Rams QB Matthew Stafford is putting together perhaps the best season of his career and has the Rams offense absolutely humming.
- Seattle’s defense has been elite this season except for a short stretch where they were decimated by injuries.
- The Rams offense has been getting more creative with how they utilize their personnel and formations, which has shown up in the snap and usage rates for their primary weapons.
- These are the two highest rated passing offenses in the league by DVOA.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How seattle Will Try To Win ::
The Seahawks made the decision to move on from QB Geno Smith this offseason and gave Sam Darnold a much-deserved contract that now looks like a massive steal as Darnold has thrived in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s system. Darnold is completing over 71% of his passes and leads the NFL by a wide margin with a completion rate over expected of 11.3%. Darnold has attempted over 30 passes in a game only three times this season as the Seahawks have operated a low-volume, high-efficiency offense as is often the case with Shanahan/Kubiak style offenses. Last week against the Cardinals, Darnold attempted only 12 passes thanks to a dominant Seahawks defensive performance. This week against the Rams he is going to have to be a lot more involved if they want to pull off the road upset.
Seattle’s running game has been “good enough” most of the season. They are not a team with a strong or physically dominant offensive line, but their scheme and execution is solid which has allowed them to run the ball with enough efficiency to sustain the offense and set-up their passing game. The Rams defense ranks 5th in run defense DVOA and is coming off a game where they shut down Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers running game, so this isn’t a spot where we should expect Seattle’s backfield to get things going. Once again, they should be able to gain some yards and keep the offense on schedule but are unlikely to consistently be breaking off chunk plays on the ground.
This means the Seattle passing game will have to do the heavy lifting. Obviously Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having a massive breakout season and is in contention for offensive player of the year in the NFL. His target share is elite and the combination of his route running, versatility, and hands are so good that he is almost impossible for an opponent to take away. Kubiak is also good enough as a play designer and play caller to utilize JSN to open things up for others as well. JSN is basically the entire offense as almost everything is designed to get him the ball or use him to open things up for someone else. He lines up all over the field and runs a dynamic route tree that attacks short, intermediate, and deep areas of coverage. Some of his biggest gains this season have come on deep crossing routes that get him the ball on the move in space. The Rams have played zone coverage at a top-five rate this season and while they will certainly do their best to key in on JSN, he is going to see double digit targets again this week and the Rams path to success will be more about simply limiting him to a “good” game and not letting all the other guys get going.
The “other guys” are a fun group that is coming together. New acquisition Rashid Shaheed is an exciting addition to this offense and familiar with Kubiak’s system. Expect some downfield shots this week after that not being necessary in his Seattle debut. Veteran WR Cooper Kupp is solid and dependable, but not a focal point. He had a long reception last week, but that was mostly a blown coverage and long run after catch. Tight ends AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo have proven to be great options as well and could be busy against the Rams zone coverages and finding openings in the wake that JSN creates.
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