Hawks (

25.75) at
Falcons (

19.25)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Seahawks are near full strength as they continue their bid for an NFC West divisional title.
• WR Drake London has missed both practices this week after missing the previous two games with a knee injury. It appears he is headed for a third consecutive absence.
• This is quite possibly the worst matchup in the league for a Falcons team led by Kirk Cousins, with the Seahawks allowing the fourth-fewest yards per carry against outside zone runs (3.19) and the Falcons utilizing outside zone concepts on over 60% of their team carries this season.
• There are very few paths to elite fantasy scoring from this game considering the likeliest outcome and current state of each team.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How SEATTLE Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks are one of the most efficient offenses in the league, averaging 6.0 yards per play (fourth), 29.2 points per game (third), and 352.5 yards per game (ninth). They back that up with a defense allowing the sixth-fewest yards per game (289.4) and the third-fewest points per game (18.1), typically operating with slow pace of play, elevated play action rates, and an extreme emphasis on Jaxon Smith-Njigba through the air. Those tendencies have resulted in low play volume (25^th-ranked 58.5 plays per game) and moderate average time of possession (18^th-ranked 29:34), mostly because they are so good an generating explosive plays through the air (first in explosive pass rate). The Falcons have played the second-highest rate of Cover-3 this season, leading to the second-highest rate of single high. Quarterback Sam Darnold ranks second in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, has the second-deepest aDOT, and highest fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB) against Cover-3 this season. We should expect extreme efficiency and moderate play volume from the Seahawks here.

While it’s true Kenneth Walker has taken on an increased role since the team’s Week 8 bye, I’m not sure it is yet enough to matter. Really the only things that are above average from a fantasy perspective are his 7.7% explosive-run rate and a slight bump to his green-zone role, having accounted for 62.5% of the team’s opportunities inside the five in that span. Even so, he has just one rushing touchdown to the three of Zach Charbonnet since Week 9 on a lowly 1.5% touchdown rate. That profile makes it difficult to return an elite fantasy score considering Walker is averaging only 13 carries per game in the last five and has not seen more than four targets in that span, having also eclipsed 100 yards just once this season. Charbonnet will remain involved in a “change-of-pace-plus” role, including key usage in the red zone. 

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

JSN against single-high this season: 0.29 targets per route run (TPRR), 27.6% target rate, 3.73 yards per route run (YPRR), 36.8% first-read target rate, and 0.79 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR). Those marks rank in the top three in the league across the board, and his 13.0-yard aDOT against single-high highlights the upside he carries on a per-target basis in this spot. That said, Darnold has not attempted more than 33 passes in a win this season, averaging just 24.8 pass attempts per game in wins. It is fair to question total expected volume considering the Seahawks are currently instilled as 7.0-point road favorites. Recent addition Rashid Shaheed has not played more than 56% of the team’s offensive snaps in his four games in Seattle, with veteran Cooper Kupp continuing to run as the clear WR2. Tight end AJ Barner has become a near every-down player at the position, with Elijah Arroyo, Robbie Ouzts, and Nick Kallerup contributing to one of the higher 12-personnel rates in the league. The combination of a spread offense behind JSN and low expected pass volume leaves little upside for the secondary options through the air.

HOW ATLANTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::