XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday Night Football has Seattle traveling to Washington for a 48.5 total game with the Seahawks favored by 3. Seattle has been downright good this year with a 5-2 record, while the Commanders have struggled to a 3-5 mark largely due to Jayden Daniels missing multiple games. Seattle is actually tied for the second-best point differential in the NFL with the Lions at +49 (the Colts have an unbelievable +116!). The Seahawks are very good, while the Commanders are better than they’ve played this year, and we should start to see it more going forward.
WASHINGTON
On the Washington side, the backfield remains unclear as they only have three games all season in which a back played 50%+ of the snaps. It does look like Chris Rodriguez is being phased out, seeing just 4 total touches in the last two weeks despite being back to full health, but Jacory Crosky-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols are splitting the rest. JCM has been almost entirely a 2-down back with just 11 targets in eight games and he’s capped out at 18 total opportunities, but his emergence into the lead back role has also coincided with a string of poor play overall from Washington as they’ve lost several games by multiple scores. JCM did have a nice 16-touch, 31 DK point game in a win against the Chargers in Week 5. He has to worry about being vultured by his own QB, but there is upside here, especially at a bargain price of just $7,400 – not bad for a guy who has commanded almost the entire running back rushing share the last four weeks (McNichols has just 6 carries in those four games). JCM should be considered a shaky floor but solid ceiling play who best fits in rosters predicated on the Commanders keeping the game competitive or winning outright. The matchup here is borderline-nightmarish against a Seahawks D that is allowing the league’s fewest rush yards per game, but running back production is generally more a function of role and overall team scoring than individual matchup. McNichols is primarily a receiving back, and he probably needs to catch a touchdown to reach a ceiling at his elevated price of $4,400.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, Terry McLaurin is out once again while Noah Brown is still on IR, leaving the Commanders with Deebo Samuel and then some combination of Chris Moore, Jaylin Lane, and Luke McCaffrey at wide receiver. As an underdog with a good QB and the clear alpha in the passing attack (30%+ target share in games with Daniels), Deebo looks a bit underpriced at $9.6k and is, I think, an excellent overall play. Seattle’s pass defense has been solid, but they’ve also largely faced weaker passing attacks. Seattle has also faced one of the highest pass rates of any team in the league at 65% (3rd highest in the NFL), further boosting the ceiling of the Commanders passing attack. Chris Moore has played three games in place of McLaurin with Daniels and has tied for the lead in end zone targets in that time, giving him ceiling at $3,400. McCaffrey is my 3rd favorite WR here, as he should see the largest boost without McLaurin, while Lane is more of a Deebo replacement. All three of these tertiary WRs are pretty thin options, and I’d rank them Moore -> McCaffrey -> Lane.
At tight end, Zach Ertz is somewhat quietly in an awesome spot. I generally don’t make a lot of DST vs. TE stat comparisons, because teams use TEs in very different ways, but the Seattle defense has allowed a lot of tight end production while really only facing two top TEs in Trey McBride and George Kittle. Steelers, Saints, Bucs, Jags, and Texans TEs have all performed well against the Seahawks, and that says there’s something schematically in their defense that makes it tough to cover tight ends. At $6,200, Ertz is a nice price. He’s 2nd on the team in projected target share, more like a WR2 than a TE, gets the most favorable matchup, is 2nd on the team in red zone targets (behind Deebo)…everything lines up nicely for him. TE2 John Bates and TE3 Ben Sinnott are thin punt options.
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