Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- RB Alvin Kamara (knee) and TE Foster Moreau (ankle) remained sidelined through Thursday and appear headed for absences in Week 17.
- These two teams rank 27th (New Orleans) and 28th (Tennessee) in offensive DVOA and 29th (New Orleans) and 30th (Tennessee) in points per game (17.0 and 16.7, respectively).
- Chris Olave broke the slate last week with a 0.32 targets per route run (TPRR), 16 targets, 10 receptions, a 3.36 yards per route run (YPRR), two touchdowns, and solid 0.84 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR).
- Tony Pollard has hit 100 yards in three consecutive weeks after failing to do so in his first 12 games, although that is accompanied by exactly zero carries inside the five in that span.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::
The Saints have been forced to adapt at multiple times this season. They changed quarterbacks after Week 8, moving from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough. They’ve also had to deal with multiple injuries to their backfield, with Alvin Kamara missing the last four games and backups Kendre Miller and Devin Neal now on injured reserve. They moved wide receiver Rashid Shaheed at the trade deadline, released Brandin Cooks, and then lost Devaughn Vele for the season. Finally, tight end Foster Moreau has already been ruled out for Week 17. Their offensive tendencies have been all over the place, most recently having Shough attempt 49 passes in a beatdown of the Jets, which does make sense when considering the current state of their backfield. Audric Estime and Evan Hull combined for only 10 carries last week as Taysom Hill effectively served as their lead back (12 carries for 42 yards). The interesting aspect about that last game is that their available personnel for their coming game is likely to resemble what they had at their disposal last week. Furthering the potential for them to be airing it out here is a matchup against a Titans team that is now one of the most pass-funnel teams in the league. Color me intrigued.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
The byproduct of the most pass-heavy game of the season for the Saints last week was a backfield that combined for only 10 carries, although Taysom contributed 12 of his own. To highlight how little the two “running backs” were involved, Estime played a ridiculous 45 offensive snaps due to the shortcomings of the New York offense but handled only five carries. Hull was on the field for 16 offensive snaps and handled five carries. The coaching staff clearly looked at their available bodies and decided that running their game plan through Shough gave them the best chance of success. There are distinct similarities this week, with a similar supporting cast of offensive players and a matchup against a clear pass-funnel defense, one that continues to struggle to field a legitimate secondary. I think we can confidently write off both members of the backfield from the Saints.
One of the sneakier aspects of last week’s game plan was that Kevin Austin ranked second on the team in snaps (67) and routes (41) behind Olave, with Mason Tipton utilized as a pure package player and the tight ends stuck in a maddening rotation. The absence of Moreau could afford Johnson additional routes, or we could just see Jack Stoll step right into the vacated role. Either way, Olave broke the slate last week with a 0.32 TPRR, 16 targets, 10 receptions, a 3.36 TPRR, two touchdowns, and solid 0.84 FP/RR. Hill checked in second across the board, followed by Johnson. It feels a bit cringy to click Olave’s name at a significantly inflated $7,200 price tag, particularly considering the Saints rank 27th in offensive DVOA and 29th in scoring, but everything continues to align for him in this spot. In order of preference, all of Olave, Hill, Johnson, and Austin can be considered as stacking partners or one-offs considering the matchup and expected tendencies from the Saints this week.
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