Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- RB Alvin Kamara did not practice Wednesday or Thursday after missing Week 13 with knee and ankle injuries. I would expect him to miss another game, at minimum.
- WR Chris Olave (back) missed practice Wednesday after his back issue “flared up” following their Week 13 loss to the Dolphins, but upgraded to a limited showing Thursday. I currently expect him to be out there against the Bucs.
- The Buccaneers held a walkthrough on Wednesday, but T Tristan Wirfs was listed as a non-participant with an oblique injury (stayed that way Thursday), while Mike Evans (IR, collarbone), Chris Godwin (fibula), Bucky Irving (shoulder), Jalen McMillan (neck), and Baker Mayfield (left shoulder) were all listed as limited. All but the two receivers on IR upgraded to a full session Thursday.
- Stop me if you’ve heard this before – this game carries a relatively wide range of outcomes!
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::
The Saints have been neutral-to-negative in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Tyler Shough’s four starts, but that also includes pass attempts of 38 and 43 in their last two games following their Week 11 bye. The team also clearly emphasized his mobility in their week off, with Shough taking off for 13 total carries the past two weeks. We know this offense is going to utilize tempo, we know they are going to marry run-pass rates to the game environment they find themselves in, and we know the offense is going to take shots deep. There is a lot to work through from this team beyond those assumptions. First off, Kamara es expected to miss his second consecutive contest this week. Second, the Buccaneers present a clear pass-funnel matchup (third-highest PROE faced). Third, the Buccaneers have been far less efficient on offense since the middle of the season, while dealing with too many injuries to list. And finally, Tampa Bay has been far less willing to push game environment on its own during that span of games without many of their primary contributors. Given how those intricacies function within our assumptions, I think it’s likely we see the Saints approach this one with a more muted offensive game plan, but likely to be equally as likely to quickly adapt to the game environment they find themselves in.
Kamara was injured after only 11 offensive snaps in the Saints’ first game following their Week 11 bye. Devin Neal operated as the clear lead back in the remainder of Week 12 and in Week 13, handling 14 and 17 opportunities, respectively. The uptempo nature of the offense has led to top-10 marks in total play volume, leaving Neal in line to see another 16-18 opportunities as his baseline, with upside for more depending on how the game plays out. The pure matchup on the ground is well below average, but the Buccaneers continue to be burned by backs through the air. Consider that aspect of the matchup floor-boosting more than it is ceiling-raising. Evan Hull operated as the primary change-of-pace option last week but was on the field at a low 18% clip. Taysom Hill also remains on hand to soak up rushing volume, although he played only 12 offensive snaps against the Dolphins.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
The Saints have effectively played two games in their current personnel configuration (without Rashid Shaheed, who was dealt at the trade deadline, and Brandin Cooks, who was released during their bye week). In those two games, Devaughn Vele joined Olave and tight end Juwan Johnson as the three near every-down pass-catchers, with Mason Tipton and Foster Moreau mixing in at rates dependent on the team’s utilization of 12-personnel. All three of those primary pieces saw 15 or more targets in those two games, but all three also posted 1.55 yards per route run (YPRR) or fewer (Vele) and 0.36 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) or fewer (also Vele). None of these guys carry immense ceiling on a per-target basis within the structure of this offense, but all three can see targets pile up and can return a usable fantasy outing with a little touchdown variance swinging in their favor.
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