Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Ravens currently have a completely clean injury report, something that does not happen often in the NFL.
- Lamar Jackson led the league in passing scores before being injured in Week 4 and followed it up with four touchdowns through the air in his return to the lineup against the Dolphins – Jackson + one or two pass catchers always warrants consideration, particularly on a slate with very little directional certainty.
- Vikings RB Aaron Jones (shoulder/toe) upgraded from DNP Wednesday to limited Thursday and appears to be in line to play against the Ravens.
- Keep an eye on the status of LT Christian Darrisaw for the Vikings, who was not on the injury report Wednesday before a DNP Thursday with a knee injury. It appears to me to be a maintenance day – Friday’s session will confirm.
- J.J. McCarthy has been asked to throw the football 20, 21, and 25 times in his three starts this season – that, to me, is more signal than noise.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How BALTIMORE Will Try To Win ::
After struggling through the most injuries I have ever seen on one team at one time, the Ravens are suddenly both fully healthy and playing extremely good football. In fact, the Ravens currently have all 53 players on their active roster off the injury report, something we rarely ever see at the NFL level. They are also coming off a three-game stretch in which they have held the Rams, Bears, and Dolphins to an average of 13 points per game while not allowing more than 17 points in that stretch (Rams). They finally, and smartly, started Tyler Huntley at quarterback coming out of their Week 7 bye, and Lamar Jackson returned in Week 9 following three missed games. In those two games, the Ravens put up 30 and 28 points while their offense was able to function as intended, a far cry from what it looked like with Cooper Rush under center. They have now played five games with either Jackson or Huntley at quarterback for the duration of the game, during which time they averaged 33.8 points per game (they averaged 11 points per game in the three games that Rush played in). This is now a team with a high-powered offense and an improving, and healthy, defense.
In the five games with a healthy Jackson or Huntley under center, Derrick Henry averaged 16.2 carries for 86.4 yards on just under 58% of the offensive snaps, scoring five times while going over 100 yards twice. In the three other games, Henry averaged 15.7 carries for 65.7 yards on 51% of the offensive snaps, scoring once. It should come as no surprise that Henry has been far more efficient with either Jackson or Huntley at quarterback as it gives the defense an additional aspect to account for, in addition to the offense being more functional. Opposing offenses have been able to attack the Vikings on the ground this season, with teams averaging the fifth-highest rush rate (48.64%), the sixth-most attempts per game (29.1), 4.2 yards per carry (16th), and 122.3 rush yards per game (20th). The Ravens continue to rank at the top of the league in yards before contact per attempt (3.08) while the Vikings have been near the middle of the pack defensively in that category (1.85). The return of fullback Patrick Ricard in Week 8 also gave this offense a piece it had been missing for the first half of the season, and he worked up to a solid 38% snap rate last time out. Justice Hill is the primary passing down back while Keaton Mitchell serves as a light change-of-pace option on early downs, neither of whom typically carries enough volume upside to warrant DFS consideration.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
The Ravens have returned to the team with the highest rate of heavy personnel groupings with the return to health of Isaiah Likely and Ricard, playing from 21, 12, or 22-personnel on a ridiculous 53 of 56 offensive plays against the Dolphins. That leaves only Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman as near every-down pass catchers, with DeAndre Hopkins, Mark Andrews, Charlie Kolar, Likely, and Tylan Wallace all operating in package roles. Of note, Andrews and Likely peaked at 60% snap rates since the return of Ricard. Jackson attempted only 23 passes last week and Huntley attempted only 22 passes the week prior, both in convincing wins, meaning this offense is likely to be a low-volume aerial attack unless otherwise forced by the opponent. Even so, Jackson was leading the league in pass touchdowns through three games and followed it up with four scores through the air in his return to the lineup against the Dolphins, meaning there is always merit to hunting for touchdowns with Jackson and one (or more) of his pass catchers. The Vikings have allowed only 13 passing scores through eight games so it is far from guaranteed, but it bears consideration on a slate like this one.
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