XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 9 and we’re officially at the midpoint of the regular season. Thursday has the Ravens in Miami for a whopping 51.5 total game with Baltimore favored by 7.5. Lamar Jackson is expected to be back after, oddly, barely missing playing Week 8. It cannot be overstated how much of an upgrade this is for Baltimore after they managed 30 against a listless Bears team last week, but otherwise scored 20, 10, and 3 points in their games without Lamar. The Ravens are shockingly 2-5 on the season, but in a weak division, they are still very live for the playoffs (and perhaps even the favorites with Lamar back). They’ll be playing with a ton of motivation here. Miami, of course, sucks.
MIAMI
On the Dolphins side of things, De’Von Achane has seen his snaps drop to 55% and 67% the last two weeks after previously not being any lower than 73% in a game this season. The last two games were blowouts, and surely that had something to do with it, but of course, there’s some real blowout risk in this game, too. The bad for Achane is that he’s only averaging 13.4 carries per game. The good news for Achane is that he’s very talented and averaging a massive 6.25 targets per game. He’s not quite CMC, but the receiving role is kinda close to CMC’s. It’s tough for me to want to spend $11.4k on a running back who’s only broken 20 DK points three times this year and only really had one smash ceiling performance, but the floor is rock solid due to all of the passing game work, and there’s clearly ceiling as well. RB2 Ollie Gordon is a bit expensive for the RB2 role, especially considering his very modest workloads in non-blowout situations. The one thing in Gordon’s favor is that he has 10 red zone rushes (compared to Achane’s 16), so there is some goal-line vulture opportunity, but it’s possible a touchdown doesn’t get him into optimal lineups given his price, relatively few touches, and lack of passing game work. RB3 Jaylen Wright got his first touches of the season late in last week’s blowout win, but it’s unlikely he’s a difference maker, as the odds of Miami blowing out the Ravens are fairly low. Overall, Achane is fine (especially given the volatility of the skill position players on the Baltimore side), but probably a little bit overpriced relative to his ceiling.
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In the passing game, without Tyreek Hill and with Darren Waller hurt again, it’s basically Jaylen Waddle, Achane, and a pile of people most folks haven’t heard of. Waddle obviously has much-improved upside without Tyreek (outside of Cleveland curb-stomping Miami, Waddle has 95, 99, and 110 receiving yards in the games since Tyreek got hurt). His target volume is still relatively modest, but if Miami keeps this one close, he could push for 8-10 targets, and he’s also seeing more downfield work with 3 receptions of 40+ yards in those four games. Similar to Achane, Waddle is a good on-paper play whose only real sticking point is his price. At $10.4k, he’s priced like a top-tier wide receiver, and on this offense, he’s more of a high-end WR2 than a WR1. WR2 Malik Washington has at least 5 targets in every game since the Hill injury, though that’s topped out at 36 receiving yards as he’s working shorter areas of the field while Waddle runs more deep routes. The volume puts him firmly in play for me, especially in a game script that is likely to see Miami passing heavily as the game goes on. Nickeil Westbrook-Ikhine has actually outsnapped Washington in all four non-Tyreek games, but while Washington has 23 targets in those games, NWI only has 8. Yikes. NWI has been a solid target-earner at previous stops in his career, so I think there’s some upside here, but it’s a very risky spot to attack given his lack of volume. Washington is the far superior on-paper play, but NWI makes sense as a contrarian tournament option. Miami also had Cedrick Wilson on the field for the first time last week, and with Dee Eskridge questionable, Wilson would be in line for some work – he’s flashed some talent earlier in his career as well and could be a punt play, as could Eskridge if he plays. I wouldn’t play these guys together.
Primary tight end Julian Hill is also questionable with an ankle injury and has not practiced this week, which last game led Tanner Conner and Greg Dulcich to split the tight end snaps. If Hill plays, he’s primarily a blocker who mostly just sucks any upside from the other TEs, but he is cheap enough to use as a thin value option. Tanner is the more interesting pass catcher who is overpriced if Hill plays, but a potentially useful piece if Hill is out, while Dulcich was just recently signed to the active roster and could potentially get a couple of targets if Hill misses.
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