Ravens (

22.75) at
Browns (

15.25)

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• There appears to be a strong chance of weather issues in this game with cold temperatures and strong winds coming off the lake that could make kicking and long passes difficult.
• This is a rematch from a Week 2 game where the Browns stifled the Ravens running game, but were diced up by Lamar Jackson through the air.
• Baltimore may be without WR Rashod Bateman and RB Justice Hill, who both missed practice Wednesday.
• Cleveland’s offense has scored over 20 points once all season, while the Ravens have held their last four opponents to an average of 14.5 points with none scoring over 19.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens have a 4-5 record and at one point were a defense that teams were excited to face, yet are now the betting favorites to win their division and seem primed for another season as AFC contenders thanks to a rejuvenated defense and the return of a healthy Lamar Jackson. This week is the first of five remaining games Baltimore has against divisional opponents, and they will be the favorite in all of those games plus a matchup with the Jets next week. They do have a couple of tough games against the Patriots and Packers on the schedule as well, and the other divisional games will be anything but easy, but Baltimore has a clear path to being in the mix and with their coaching, experience, talent, and QB play this could be the year they break through in a wide open AFC.

Baltimore’s offense has been entirely different at various points this season, which makes cumulative statistics misleading. What we do know is that when Lamar Jackson is on the field they are dynamic and deadly. The Ravens have averaged 33.2 points per game in the five games that Jackson started and finished, scoring at least 27 points in all of those games. Last week against a very good and well coached Vikings defense the Ravens were uncharacteristically bad in the red zone and settled for three field goals of under 30 yards. Had they been their typically efficient selves, that could have been a 34 to 38 point game as well. None of this should be news to anyone who has been paying attention, but it is important context to understand just how good they have been with Lamar under center.

As for how they will play, this week presents an interesting dynamic. The weather forecasts here say that it should be very cold and windy. That would normally mean leaning into Derrick Henry and their power running game to impose their will, but in the first matchup with this Cleveland defensive front they had massive struggles running the ball and ended up just letting Lamar sling it, as he finished with a 225 passing yards, four touchdown passes, completed 76% of his passes, and had a passer rating of 129. Cleveland is the top-ranked DVOA run defense and while they may not fully shut Baltimore down like they did in Week 2, the Ravens are likely to need to move the ball through the air to sustain drives. 

Baltimore is likely to be without RB Justice Hill and WR Rashod Bateman in this spot. Expect Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell to work in tandem in the backfield, while the tight ends should be heavily featured in the passing game. The weather and matchup indicates that heavier personnel will help the Ravens in this spot and their dynamic tight ends can then be used as pass catching targets in advantageous situations. Zay Flowers is the top WR option and will likely get peppered with short area targets but the Browns secondary is legit and will likely swarm him quickly. Baltimore spreads things around and this week will likely be no different. Their defense is in a strong spot against Cleveland’s offense, so this could be a week where the Ravens put up a big number on the scoreboard without accumulating a ton of yards. Bateman has not been a huge part of the offense this year, but his absence should have a direct impact on the personnel and formations Baltimore uses with Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely in position to be important pieces of their game plan.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::