Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- TE Mark Andrews (glute) and WR Rashod Bateman (ankle) were added to the injury report Thursday as limited participants.
- WR Tee Higgins was limited for the second straight practice Thursday after re-entering the concussion protocol last week.
- Similar to two weeks ago, when these two teams met for the first time, the spot on paper for Derrick Henry is elite. That said, we know he likely required 100 yards and multiple touchdowns to return a solid GPP score.
- Neither of these teams is yet mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, with the clearest path for each team being to win the AFC North. That adds a bit of upside to the game environment, should it reach “oh shit” mode early.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How baltimore Will Try To Win ::
The Ravens are currently two games behind the Colts and Texans for the wildcard and one game behind the Steelers for the AFC North. They get the floundering yet dangerous Bengals in Week 15 before games against the 11-2 Patriots, the 9-3-1 Packers, and the 7-6 Steelers to end the season, with their clearest path to the postseason being to win the division. The Ravens faltered in their previous two games after winning five straight, the first loss of which came against these Bengals in a game in which they gave the ball away five times. Clearly not at full health, Lamar Jackson will need to play much better football than he has in the previous two games to save the Ravens’ sinking season. He completed just 36 of 67 passes against the Bengals and Steelers in those two losses, adding 73 combined yards and a score on the ground. The Ravens rank 30th in PROE while averaging the eighth most rush attempts per game (28.5) and the fewest pass attempts per game (27.1) this season, highlighting a run-first doctrine that has persisted through numerous offensive coordinators under head coach John Harbaugh.
If they are to be successful against a far inferior defense this week, it likely starts with Derrick Henry on the ground. We also know what we’re getting with Henry, who has not seen more than three targets in a game this season and is typically not going to see more than 55-60% of the offensive snaps, likely requiring 100 yards and multiple touchdowns to pay off his still-lofty price tag. The good news is that his opponent in Week 15 is the most forgiving in the league in that regard, having allowed an average of 32.1 DK points, the most rushing yards (1,643), and 11 rushing scores this season. Henry was held to just 60 yards on the ground in these two teams’ previous meeting, which included five Baltimore turnovers. It is well within the range of outcomes for Henry to see much greater volume after seeing 20 or more opportunities in seven of his last eight games, dating back to Week 6 against the Rams. Again, the paths to him putting up a separator score are much thinner than in other spots on the slate, considering his minimal pass game involvement, but the “100 yards and multiple score” outcome is firmly in play here. Keaton Mitchell appears to be healthy after getting in a full session on Thursday, so the team should have their primary change of pace option again this week. Finally, the Ravens boast the top net-adjusted yards before contact matchup on the slate, with Baltimore ranked second, and the Bengals ranked 28th in that metric.
The low weekly pass volume from the Ravens can be slightly offset by their rushing struggles in the red zone, with Henry averaging only 2.11 yards per carry on 47 attempts where it matters most. Which is to say, there is always the threat of quarterback Lamar Jackson accounting for four or more touchdowns, which is likely what is required for him to return an elite fantasy score, considering an expectation of modest volume through the air. As we’ve talked about in multiple instances this season, Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman are really the only two pass-catchers to play near every-down roles for the Ravens, with DeAndre Hopkins, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely all contributing in package roles. Most notably, there is a recent emphasis on going big with personnel, introduced through fullback Patrick Ricard and tight end Charlie Kolar, which is notable because the team is not really using both Andrews and Likely on the field together at elevated rates. Andrews is the greater red zone threat but has seen no more than six targets in a game since Week 4, while Likely has made numerous mental errors in the previous two games that took touchdowns off the board. We’re effectively just touchdown hunting here. Flowers should see a good deal of coverage from standout corner DJ Turner when the Bengals go to man, slightly denting his true ceiling in this spot.
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