XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 16 begins with a critical NFC game as the Rams visit the Seahawks for a 43.5 total game with Los Angeles favored by 1.5. These are the NFC’s two best teams (or at least the teams with the two best records) as they’re both 11-3 and tied atop the division. Obviously, this is a big deal, and there are interesting developments with each team. The Seahawks offense has been struggling lately, while the Rams are without Davante Adams, who appears to be doubtful for this week’s game.
SEATTLE
On the Seattle side, the backfield’s a 2-way split between Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet. Walker looked like he was pulling away a few weeks back, but then he has opportunity counts of 15, 17, 13, and 10 in the past four weeks, while Charbonnet has 6, 14, 10, and 9 in those games. Those are four straight wins with a favorable game script for running (they were playing from behind against the Colts last week, but it was close throughout), but Seattle has just had a tough time generating useful fantasy scores from its backfield due to the split and their overall low play volume (58.5 plays per game, roughly 3 below average). Walker has (much) more big-play ability, as Charbonnet only has 2 carries over 20 yards all season, while Walker has 6, but Charbonnet has much more touchdown equity with 20 carries inside the 10-yard line against 10 for Walker. Against the Rams, one of the league’s better defenses, this is just a really tough spot. I don’t really want to play either of these guys, but in Showdown, it’s tough to ignore the touchdown equity they bring to the table, and their prices are very reasonable at $7,200 for Walker and $6,200 for Charbs. I’ll lean slightly to Charbonnet based on the red zone role and the price discount.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, it’s basically Jaxon Smith-Njigba or bust. While this is a low passing volume offense, JSN has a massive 35% target share and 46.4% air yards share, good for 1st and 4th in the NFL, respectively. He’s averaging 9.3 targets per game and leads the league in receiving yards. He’s an absolute stud. When these teams met in Week 11 and played to a modest 40-point total game, JSN put up 23.6 points with a 9/105/0 line. That’s closer to his floor than his ceiling (keep in mind JSN only has TWO games all season under 20 DK points!), but would still almost certainly be enough to put him in winning tournament lineups. After JSN, we have Cooper Kupp, who is largely running cardio out on the field (just four games all season of 10+ DK points and only one of 15+, which is most likely about what you need at his price). We also have trade acquisition Rashid Shaheed, who just played the most snaps he’s played with Seattle last week at 68%. Shaheed has 12 targets in the last two weeks and looks to be fully integrated with the offense at this point. Giving Seattle another deep threat, Shaheed has a much higher ceiling than Kupp, and at only $800 more, is a much stronger option to me. Some combination of Cody White and Jake Bobo will pick up a handful of WR4 snaps and can be viewed as tourney dart throws – White has a slight lead here.
At tight end, Elijah Arroyo was put on IR, so AJ Barner will be on the field a ton with Eric Saubert backing him up. Barner is one of the league’s least exciting tight end options for fantasy purposes (he’s almost always unowned on main slates), but he does have 4 touchdowns on the season as well as three games of 50+ receiving yards. At $4,400, if he finds his way to one of those outcomes, there’s a very good chance he’s in winning lineups. He’s a solid, cheap play, while Saubert is a risky punt.
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