Game Overview ::
By Mike johnson >>
- The Rams look to bounce back and stay on top of the NFC West after a cross country upset loss to the Panthers.
- Arizona wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. appears likely to miss another game, which would leave TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson in position for massive roles.
- This game features the league’s two most pass heavy offenses over the last month.
- Los Angeles continues to split up their backfield work and involve Blake Corum at the expense of Kyren Williams workload.
- The Rams are one of the high certainty offenses this week, with the game script likely to be determined by Arizona’s ability to generate offense.
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How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Rams took their show on the road last week across the country to face an upstart Panthers team that has several “upsets” on their resume now this season and were promptly brought back down to earth. After a week of the media fawning over Los Angeles following their drubbing of the Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in Week 12, the Rams were on the negative side of most of the high leverage plays in their loss to the Panthers. MVP candidate Matthew Stafford had 30 touchdown passes and only two turnovers entering last week, and promptly turned the ball over three times. The Panthers also converted two fourth down plays into long touchdown passes. While the result may have some Rams fans panicked, the reality is if the Rams get a stop or two on those fourth down plays (or even just let them pick up the first down but not a long touchdown), the game probably plays out very differently, and Stafford’s ball security concerns in that spot were a little fluky for the level he has played at the rest of the season.
Part of the issue last week also may have been the cross country road trip and time difference, along with some rainy and gloomy weather. Those things will not be an issue for Los Angeles this week, as they are playing in the comfortable confines of a dome and a short trip from home. The Rams are second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) over the last month and third for the season. The Rams rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play and 8th in total yards, while leading the league in offensive DVOA (ranking 1st in passing offense and 3rd in rushing offense). To put it simply, the Rams have been playing elite offense all season and have been deadly efficient. Even in last week’s loss, the Rams scored 28 points and averaged 7.4 yards per play (for reference, the Colts lead the NFL in yards per play this season at 6.3).
Los Angeles runs an offense that centers around their elite receivers, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Nacua sees a higher target rate and moves the chains more, while operating as the movable chess piece that head coach Sean McVay utilizes in a variety of ways. Adams operates in a more traditional role and has been absolutely dominant in the red zone, scoring 11 touchdowns in the last six games with 14 touchdowns total on the season. The Rams lost veteran tight end Tyler Higbee a couple of weeks ago and have moved back to more “11” personnel with three wide receivers on the field rather than the high rate of “12” and “13” packages that utilized two or three tight ends. Colby Parkinson has been the primary tight end, while Davis Allen and exciting rookie Terrance Ferguson are also involved. The Rams also had a three player WR rotation at their third wide receiver spot, but may get the diminutive and explosive Tutu Atwell back this week which would further muddy the waters. The tight ends and “other” receivers are mostly just ancillary pieces, however, with the Rams’ always elite running game being the real complement to Stafford, Adams, and Nacua’s dominance through the air. Kyren Williams has been solid this season, but continues to share work with Blake Corum and has had more than 17 touches in a game only once since Week 6. Corum has at least seven carries in each game since the team’s Week 8 bye, and is coming off a season high 81 rushing yards in Carolina that featured a 34 yard run. Corum looked explosive and dynamic and jumped off the screen – he isn’t going away.
Expect the Rams to have a lot of success running the ball against a Cardinals defense ranked 20th in run defense as the Rams should have no troubles winning at the line of scrimmage. That rushing efficiency will make Los Angeles very difficult for Arizona to contain through the air, as Matthew Stafford is deadly when using play action. Puka Nacua should be in store for a big game in the short to intermediate areas of the field against an Arizona defense that has a moderate blitz rate and mixes up coverages, but is generally conservative in their schemes. The Rams should have no trouble moving the ball up and down the field, which means Adams and the tight ends will also get their share of opportunities and red zone trips should be plentiful.
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