Game Overview ::
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- QB Jayden Daniels has missed both practices to start the week due to a knee injury sustained in the team’s Week 2 loss to the Packers. Marcus Mariota has taken all the snaps under center in both practices thus far.
- RB Austin Ekeler was lost for the season in the same game with a torn Achilles, a potential career-ender at this stage of his career.
- WR Noah Brown missed both practices through Thursday.
- TE Brock Bowers was limited in each session through Thursday after playing through a knee injury in Week 2. He was noticeably hobbled and far less explosive in that contest.
- I don’t expect this game environment to have many paths towards upside, and the places we expect volume to amass carry relatively modest ceilings. That leaves this game as a potential stay away on a 13-game slate.
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How las vegas Will Try To Win ::
The Raiders are making things difficult on their opponents by playing a league-leading 92.9% zone on the defensive side of the ball. They also lead the league in Cover-3 rate at 51.8% while mixing in Cover-4 (20.0%) and Cover-2 (17.6%). Their defensive line is also playing inspired football, holding the Chargers and Patriots to 3.2 yards per carry. Quarterback Geno Smith has a 9.4 average intended air yards and 15.6% deep throw rate this season, which highlights how this team has consistently been looking to attack down the field. That’s interesting to me because of how poor this offensive line has played through two games. Either way, the Raiders appear intent on playing via a prevent defense behind an above average front four, while mixing in blitzes at an above average rate (25.9% blitz rate and 17.6% pressure rate).
Things haven’t fully come together with their run game. We talked about that this offseason, noting that the offensive line is a below average unit outside of LT Kolton Miller and LG Dylan Parham. Electric rookie Ashton Jeanty has managed just 2.7 yards per carry on 30 attempts, all while forcing an above average 0.23 missed tackled per attempt. He has zero explosive runs through two games but has handled all carries inside the five, leading to 14.1 XFP/G. He is too talented to continue with such poor efficiency, but this offensive line is going to have to block better than their current 1.55 yards before contact per attempt mark (29th). Zamir White is on hand for strict change of pace duties and brings little to the table for fantasy purposes. The Commanders structure their defense to dare teams to run on them, evidenced by a lofty 2.61 yards allowed before contact per attempt, so the matchup is pure on paper. Finally, Jeanty saw his snap rate plummet from 86% in Week 1 to 56% in Week 2. The difference in those games was the game environment, with the Raiders beating the Patriots in Week 1 and losing to the Chargers in Week 2, meaning Jeanty is less workhorse than we initially thought to begin the season.
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The Raiders have seen their personnel rates change greatly depending on the game environment, playing from 11-personnel less than 60% of the time in Week 1 and over 80% of the time in Week 2. Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker are the primary receivers, while rookie Dont’e Thornton sees his involvement change with personnel structure, while both Bowers and Michael Mayer are involved at meaningful rates at tight end. Both Tucker and Thornton have below average TPRR (targets per route run) rates, a metric largely led by Meyers and Bowers. The Commanders have played a ton of Cover-1 (38.0%) through two weeks, something that could allow one of Tucker or Thornton to hit on a downfield shot at some point, but the lack of consistent volume makes it a tough sell on such a large slate.
How washington Will Try To Win ::
Jayden Daniels has missed both practices to start the week due to a knee injury sustained in the team’s Week 2 loss to the Packers. Marcus Mariota has taken all the snaps under center in both practices thus far. While Daniels technically has one more opportunity to get on the practice field this week, it certainly does not look good, considering the injury was suffered on Thursday night. I currently expect Mariota to start, and the remainder of this write-up will focus on that outcome. Any updates to Daniels status will be passed via the below DFS+ Interpretation section, the End Around, and The Slate podcast. The path of least resistance against the Cover-3-heavy Raiders is to the intermediate areas of the field in the gaps of the formation, which is where I expect the Commanders to focus their attack.
I expect the backfield to be a three-headed timeshare with rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt likely to lead the team in snap rate and carries. I honestly have no clue who is going to take over clear passing situations because both Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez are below average, to poor, through the air. Considering the state of the backfield in the absence of Ekeler, the matchup against the Raiders, and the potential for the team to be led by a backup quarterback, I think it’s likely we see offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury lean into a quick passing attack to move the football, which keeps the range of outcomes of all three backs skewed towards the downside. Mariota also has an extremely low career checkdown rate.
On the other hand, that expectation directly correlates to a potential boost to the volume and utilization of Deebo Samuel (4.3 aDOT), Zach Ertz (7.1 aDOT), and potentially even Jaylin Lane (7.6 aDOT), while denting the expectation for Terry McLaurin (14.1 aDOT) and Noah Brown (14.9 aDOT), if he is able to suit up (missed practice to start the week). Luke McCaffrey (17.0 aDOT) is the player most likely to step into Brown’s vacated role should Brown miss. I wouldn’t expect the focus here to be attacking aggressively downfield, but rather an offense that hits the soft spots in Cover-3 through their horizontally spread nature. The Raiders have allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempt on a 67.12% completion rate, while allowing 24.5 completions per game. It all lines up to me. Another Deebo, Ertz, and Lane game incoming. And while the volume is likely to be there for those three, touchdown expectancy should obviously be lower should Daniels miss, making ceiling a tougher bet than it otherwise would be in this spot.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
It is highly unlikely we see the Commanders pushing anything in this spot with Mariota under center, and it is highly unlikely the Raiders are able to hit on splash plays through the air to ignite the game environment. That leaves this game with a likeliest scenario where both teams are fighting to sustain drives, lowering the ceiling of all skill position players in the process. Brock Bowers is banged up, Jakobi Meyers carries a modest 8.5 aDOT, and Marcus Mariota is unlikely to be attacking downfield in this spot, on this offense. All signs point to a more reserved game environment with few paths to upside, making this game a potential one to strike out completely on a massive 13-game slate.
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