XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 10 begins with the Raiders taking on the Broncos in a 42.5 total game with Denver favored by 10. We’re fresh off the trade deadline, and Las Vegas traded away Jakobi Meyers, while the Broncos stood pat. The Raiders are, obviously, a bad team and deserve their major underdog status on the road at altitude against a better team and having just essentially signaled that they’re punting on the rest of their season (at 2-6, this should surprise nobody). Let’s dig in.
DENVER
On the Denver side, the backfield looks like a split with RB1 J.K. Dobbins hanging out around the 50% snap share mark most weeks, while RJ Harvey is around 25-30% and Tyler Badie is in the 20% range. Dobbins is getting the bulk of the touches, but he has only reached the 20 opportunity mark once, averaging 15 carries and about 1.5 targets per game. Harvey’s workload has bounced around significantly, with carry counts ranging from 2 to 14 and target counts from 1 to 5. There’s more volatility in his range of touches, whereas Dobbins has tended to stay pretty steady, indicating that perhaps Dobbins is on something of a firmer touch count while Harvey picks up what’s left. Harvey also had 19 touches in Week 4’s blowout win against the Bengals, indicating that perhaps he has more upside in Broncos onslaught builds. Badie only really gets targets with just 2 carries on the year and 17 targets – he’ll almost certainly need to catch a touchdown to be relevant, and he has yet to see a red zone target, so he’s a tough sell. Dobbins doesn’t have the kind of workload we normally look for, but at $8,600, he’s priced for his role, and he has a good matchup as a large home favorite; his floor is low with little passing game work and modest workload, but he’s a very viable tournament option. Harvey is interesting as he has some explosiveness with the ball in his hands, he’s caught 4 TDs on the year, and he has upside in blowout scenarios. At $5,600, he’s pricier than I normally want in an RB2, but he has multiple paths to ceiling outcomes, and I think the price may well keep his ownership subdued, which would make him a compelling if risky tournament option.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, the big question is whether Marvin Mims will return from his concussion that he experienced in Week 8. Mims returned to practice on Tuesday, which gives him a shot, but he still has to get through the protocol in order to be cleared. Mims has not exactly been playing a ton of snaps, but his absence in Week 9 resulted in Troy Franklin playing his 2nd-most snaps of the season and seeing a season-high 10 targets. We’ll start there: Franklin is an exciting young player who has delivered a couple of fantastic performances already this season while on main slates. He’s not quite a “breakout” because outside of those two “booms” he’s busted and only reached double-digit DK points one other time, but he’s talented and he’s had games of 8 and 10 targets in Weeks 8 and 7, respectively, and that’s with Mims playing (Although the Week 7 game was a shootout in which Bo Nix threw a season-high 50 times). Also worth noting is that Franklin is the team’s primary red zone weapon by a WIDE margin, with 12 targets, while the next highest only has 6 (Courtland Sutton). The point is, Franklin is a reasonable play if Mims is in, and he becomes a really strong option if Mims sits.
Next, we have the WR1 of the offense, Sutton, who has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in fantasy this season, with 10+ DK points in all but two games and 16+ in 5/9. Given that he’s had a few really tough matchups, that level of consistency is impressive. As their prices creep closer, I definitely prefer Sutton over Franklin, if Mims is active, and still slightly lean Sutton’s way if Mims sits out (but it’s closer). If Mims plays, he’s a highly volatile boom/bust option as always. The matchup here is solid with some risk that Denver won’t need to throw much (but let’s also note Mims had his best game of the season when the Broncos curb-stomped the Bengals 28-3 – players with his profile can find ceilings on limited volume). One guy I want to mention, however, is Pat Bryant. Bryant has been playing around 50% of the snaps the last five weeks, and that looks to be independent of Mims. In the last four weeks, he has target counts of 2, 4, 4, and 3, and he’s scored a touchdown; he’s a fairly talented rookie. He’s not an elite option (an aDOT of just 7.3 yards holds back his upside), but he’s starting to show an ability to earn targets and be trusted in this offense (he’s been the first read on just over half of his targets, which is something we want to see for a rookie – they’re purposefully involving him). He even has 3 red zone targets already. At $3,200, I’m very interested in him as a value play and think that he’s likely to come in at sub-10% ownership if Mims is active. I worry about him getting steamed a bit if Mims misses, but we’ll just have to see what ownership projections say. To be clear, I think Mims is the overall better and higher ceiling play – but at sub-10% ownership, I’m interested in being overweight on Bryant.
At tight end, the Broncos are using Adam Trautman far too much for my taste (really just for fantasy purposes, that is. Trautman’s a blocker who doesn’t do much for fantasy). Evan Engram is the more interesting play for DFS. He’s established a fairly consistent role even on limited snaps, and if you remember his time on the Jags, the knock against him was they only used him between the 20s and not in the red zone, but on Denver, he has 4 red zone targets (Sutton only has 6!), so the role here is reasonable. Engram has a lower ceiling than Mims but a higher floor.
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