Patriots (

23.75) at
Titans (

17.25)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Patriots lead the league in FP/DB against man coverage this season (1.00), something that drew my eye in early research this week. That said, we might have to file that one away for future use, considering the Titans have played the fifth lowest rates of man coverage this season (16.7%). Their FP/DB falls to 0.40 (14^th) against zone.
• The Titans also play the second lowest rate of single-high, while the Patriots rank sixth in FP/DB against single-high this season.
• Calvin Ridley did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday to start the week after picking up a hamstring injury in Week 6. It certainly appears as if he is headed towards a missed contest against the Patriots.
• Nose Tackle T’Vondre Sweat managed limited sessions through Thursday after seeing his 21-day practice window open as he attempts to return from injured reserve. He would be a massive addition to the run-stopping power of the Titans if he could return to action.
• Stefon Diggs (chest) was limited in each sessions this week (as of Thursday) but doesn’t appear to be in danger of missing Week 7.
• LB Harold Landry (ankle) has not practiced this week.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots currently sit at a 4-2 record, having lost to the Raiders in Week 1 and the Steelers in Week 3. They have had three games of a positive PROE, which came in those two games and their Week 5 win over the Bills. They had a negative PROE against the Dolphins, Panthers, and Saints, all coming in wins. Drake Maye’s pass attempts in the three wins against teams that aren’t the Bills were 23, 17, and 26, with the defense scoring a touchdown in two of those three games. Which is to say, head coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels have taken games as they have come this season, which paints a much clearer picture than simply referencing their sixth-ranked PROE values through six weeks. Considering their opponent in Week 7 has averaged the fewest yards per game (232.3) and second fewest points per game (13.8), I think it’s fair to expect a more muted offensive game plan out of the Patriots this week.

Vrabel spoke to the media regarding his backfield this week, effectively saying that he thought his backs were running too cautiously while worrying too much about ball security. Everything we’ve seen from Vrabel has been positive reinforcement regarding Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumbling issues, and the veteran back got up to a season-high 72% snap rate and 13 carries in their Week 6 win over the Saints. That said, this is still a back with a season-high of only 13 carries, so there likely isn’t enough volume here to matter in GPPs this week, even though the matchup is premier against a Titans team allowing the fourth most DK points per game, 4.5 yards per carry (21^st), and 133.7 rush yards per game (25^th). TreVeyon Henderson has just two games with more than 35% of the offensive snaps and carries little upside on a season-high of 14 opportunities.

The pass-catching corps has been a maddening rotation outside of tight end Hunter Henry, with all of Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, Austin Hooper, Stefon Diggs, DeMario Douglas, and Kyle Williams seeing rotational roles (listed in order of total snaps played this season). That said, we have seen meaningful GPP scores emerge from this offense through the season, with Diggs (19.1 and 27.6), Boutte (19.3 and 26.3), and Henry (29.0). Those games all came in different weeks. Another way of looking at this situation is that this team has returned a 4x salary multiplier (or extremely close to it) in five of six games played, or against every team other than the Dolphins. To that end, all three of those players warrant MME consideration in a spot like this, but it is extremely difficult to narrow down where the production is likeliest to flow, considering the low relative snap rates they all play (outside of Hunter). Maye is now also priced up to an appropriate price relative to his range of outcomes, having hit a 4x multiplier on his Week 7 salary twice in six games while peaking at 27.3 DK points this season (4.33x multiplier on his Week 6 salary). This is not the offense (for me) to target in small field or single entry contests this week, given the matchup and previous production.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::