Patriots (

22.5) at
Ravens (

26)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Patriots visiting the Ravens for a 48.5 total game with Baltimore favored by a field goal. The spread looks odd to me at first glance. The Patriots are 11-3 with one of the best point differentials in the NFL, while the Ravens are 7-7 and currently not in the playoffs if the season ended today. If they win, the Ravens playoff odds go up to roughly 50%, while if they lose, their odds dip to around 25% – safe to say this game is important for Baltimore! What’s weird is the Patriots have an implied team total of just 22.75 points – a total they have surpassed in every single game from Week 4 onwards. Meanwhile, the Ravens have a team total of 25.75. Lamar Jackson hasn’t reached that since back in Week 10. Something about these totals just feels a bit weird to me. It’s true that Baltimore’s defense looked really good last week while shutting out the Bengals, but keep in mind they gave up 27 to Pittsburgh and 32 to Cincinnati in the two weeks before that – they’ve definitely looked better as the season has gone on and they’ve gotten healthier, but they aren’t exactly some elite D and they’ve largely been stopping weak offenses. The Patriots are anything but weak. Personally, I think this game should be somewhere between a pick’em and New England as a short road favorite, but that’s just me, and your mileage may vary.

BALTIMORE

The Ravens backfield is largely about Derrick Henry (despite Rasheen Ali stealing a touchdown last week). Henry plays modest snaps, rarely breaking much above the mid-60% range, but he piles up touches when on the field. Last game he put up 100 yards on just 11 carries as the Bengals were held scoreless – that was a very bizarre game script – but otherwise Henry has gotten 20+ touches in every win or competitive loss going all the way back to Week 6. His passing game involvement is extremely minimal, with 20 targets on the year and only 5 games of over 10 receiving yards, so he needs to get to at least the 100-yard bonus or a touchdown to really have any chance of being in optimal lineups. The Patriots D has routinely stifled opposing running backs until James Cook went bananas on them last week, but Milton Williams being out has been a big, big deal and they’ve really struggled since. Henry is a solid on-paper play who is always a bit fragile due to his price and touchdown dependency, but it’s at least possible his ownership will be lower than it “should” be due to the perceived difficult matchup, which is not actually as difficult as it appears. RB2 Keaton Mitchell has seen an increased role with Justice Hill on IR with a season-high 39% snap share last week. He benefited from the blowout, but he’ll be on the field a bit and has 5+ opportunities in three straight games and four of their last five – he’s an explosive runner who at least has a shot at finding a ceiling on limited work and is a viable cheap RB option. Rasheen Ali has also been seeing a little bit of work lately: 4 carries in Week 13, 1 carry and 3 targets in Week 14, and then 0 carries and 2 targets in Week 15. His role is significantly smaller than Hill’s used to be, but he’s at least worthy of being in the “MME punt play” pool. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we know the deal with the Ravens. It’s Zay Flowers and a merry-go-round at wide receiver. Rashod Bateman is back after missing a game and should resume the WR2 role, which should send Devontez Walker back to a small part-time role. Flowers and Bateman are basically the full-time guys with DeAndre Hopkins, Tylan Wallace, Walker, and perhaps LaJohntay Wester all playing handfuls of snaps. On a low-passing volume offense, you’re just hunting for touchdowns with all of the tertiary guys. I’d view them all as low-floor dart throws and would max 1 all of them. Flowers very rarely finds true ceiling performances, only reaching 20 DK points twice on the season, as this offense just doesn’t generate a lot of passing volume, and his red zone role is minuscule (just 8 red zone targets all year and only 3 inside the 10-yard line). His brand name tends to lead to him being overowned compared to his likelihood of being in winning lineups. He’s a good player and does have a real ceiling. I just think his ownership is going to significantly exceed his likelihood of finding that ceiling, and at $9k, he’s too expensive for me. To be clear: I will be playing Flowers, I will just be underweight his projected ownership in flex spots (but I do think he’s an interesting captain option, as when he booms, he can really boom). Bateman has a much lower target share but a solid red zone role, and at $3,400, he’s reasonable as a value option.

Where I’m really interested, though, is the tight ends. After dudding last week against Cincinnati (sigh), the Ravens tight end duo of Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely gets another great matchup against a Patriots defense that, while not the Bengals, has been an above-average matchup for TEs all season. Andrews has overall upside in volume, yardage, and the best red zone role of any Baltimore pass catcher, and at $5,400, he’s priced around kickers who he has significantly more ceiling than. Likely is more of a between-the-20s guy, and when his price gets close to Andrews (they’re only $1k apart in this one), I prefer Mark by a significant margin. Likely’s a great player, but the volume just doesn’t justify a $4,400 price when Andrews is $5,400. Likely still belongs in player pools, he’s a very reasonable play (and a better play than all the tertiary Baltimore WRs), but I just like Andrews more. Charlie Kolar can also be included as a dart throw.

NEW ENGLAND