Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving and WR Chris Godwin did not practice Wednesday or Thursday – both seem to be trending towards missing Week 10.
- Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) and RB Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and are trending towards absences.
- During the Patriots’ current six-game win streak, Drake Maye has attempted 30 or fewer passes in each game while averaging only 24.8 pass attempts per game.
- There doesn’t appear to be an ignition source present for this game environment, considering the current state of these two teams.
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How new england Will Try To Win ::
The Patriots now rank sixth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) after starting the season in first, but they have been neutral to positive in each of their previous five games, and seven of nine in total. Much of that appears to be due to a general inability to run the football effectively, most notably tied to an offensive line blocking to the sixth-fewest yards before contact per attempt. After starting the season 1-2, the Patriots have rattled off six consecutive wins over the Panthers, Bills, Saints, Titans, Browns, and Falcons, while holding all six of those opponents to 23 points or fewer (16.83 points allowed per game while holding three of the six opponents to 13 points). During this six-game win streak, Maye has attempted 30 passes or fewer in each game while averaging only 24.8 pass attempts per game. That offsets the high PROE value considering the team is averaging 61.4 plays per game behind one of the slowest paces in the league (28th-ranked 31.1 seconds per play).
The Patriots have now utilized a “greater than lead back but lesser than workhorse” in each of their previous four games, with Stevenson handling snap rates of 72%, 75%, and 74% before being inactive in Week 9, where TreVeyon Henderson saw a 75% snap rate. That effectively tells me the team intends to utilize a primary back with a strict change-of-pace back moving forward. That is at least interesting considering Stevenson remained sidelined on Wednesday with his toe injury. If he remains out, I would expect Henderson to once again find that lead role against the Buccaneers. The problem for Henderson, and the New England run game, is a massively underperforming offensive line, as the Patriots backfield is now averaging only 3.9 yards per carry this season. The Buccaneers have held opponents to just 3.9 yards per carry (sixth) while facing 34.9 pass attempts and 23.9 rush attempts per game.
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PFP the OWS pennant
The Patriots are now near the middle of the pack in rate of man coverage faced but continue to be the most dangerous against man, averaging the fourth-highest fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB) against the primary shell (0.87). The Buccaneers are a “zone-blitz” team, in that they continue to carry above-average blitz rates (fifth-ranked 30.8%) but also carry elevated zone rates, most of which comes in the form of Cover-3. That leaves them with above-average rates of single-high, which is the split that catches my eye here. Stefon Diggs (2.77 yards per route run [YPRR]) and DeMario Douglas (2.73 YPRR) lead the team in underlying metrics against single-high coverages this season, while Kayshon Boutte, who is trending towards an absence, checks in third. Douglas has played more than 28% of the team’s offensive snaps only twice all season, coming all the way back in Weeks 1 and 3 (the team’s only two losses this year), as the team has shifted to borderline extreme rates of heavy personnel alignments. Hunter Henry (0.24 targets per route run [TPRR], 2.45 YPRR, 0.60 fantasy points per route run [FP/RR]), Diggs (0.27 TPRR, 2.54 YPRR, 0.59 FP/RR), and Douglas (0.27 TPRR, 3.52 YPRR, 0.83 FP/RR) are the team leaders against the blitz, which, again, we expect a lot of here. I expect rookie Kyle Williams to see an increase in snap rate with Boutte likely out, which should only serve to concentrate target volume on Diggs, Henry, and Douglas in this spot. That volume could be an issue, but the per-target efficiency should be there for the Patriots here.
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