Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- These two teams rank 32nd (Jets) and 30th (Panthers) in pass rate over expectation (PROE) through the first third of the season.
- The Panthers have allowed just 2.5 yards per carry during their previous three games and are now in the top five in composite metrics against the run.
- Only Cooper Rush, Dillon Gabriel, Mac Jones, Michael Penix, and Jared Goff have lower deep-throw rates than Bryce Young, and Justin Fields ranks lower than all of those quarterbacks other than Goff. Neither of these offenses are attacking downfield at meaningful rates.
- Tetairoa McMillan has accounted for a modest 22.4% target share and 0.23 targets per route run (TPRR) as the “alpha” in a low-pass-volume offense.
- All of Chuba Hubbard, Jalen Coker, and Ja’Tavion Sanders are currently trending to return to the game-day roster for the Panthers after missing multiple games.
- Garrett Wilson is expected to miss multiple games with a knee injury sustained in Week 6.
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How CAROLINA Will Try To Win ::
The Panthers started the season 0-2 before going 3-1 in the subsequent four games, including wins over the Falcons and Cowboys. During that four-game stretch, quarterback Bryce Young has averaged just 27.25 pass attempts per game as the teams has inched its way towards the bottom of the league in PROE (30th). This is a team that wants to be methodical on offense and force teams to march the field against them on defense, as evidenced by Young’s low 7.5% deep-throw rate and the team’s defensive alignment tendencies (heavy zone and heavy Cover-3). They should also be afforded the opportunity to continue those tendencies deep into the game against a Jets opponent that has almost zero downfield ability of its own and the heaviest rush rate over expectation (RROE) in the league.
The most interesting wrinkle to this game is the likely reintroduction of Hubbard to the offensive game plan after the veteran back missed the previous two games. Hubbard managed a limited showing in Wednesday’s practice, his first such appearance since aggravating a calf injury in the team’s Week 4 loss to the Patriots. That places him in position to return to the game-day roster. The uncertainty of the situation arises when you consider how effective Rico Dowdle has been in his absence, amassing a ridiculous 473 yards from scrimmage in two games. Head coach Dave Canales was noncommittal when asked what the workload split would be moving forward or if Dowdle had earned the right to be the starter the rest of the season, but I have to think he will be more involved than he had been the first month, when he averaged a 35.5% snap rate. My expectation is that Dowdle starts and serves as the 1A to Hubbard’s 1B, likely finishing in the 55-65% snap-rate and opportunity-share range. There is both upside and downside in that expectation in that everything from Hubbard returning to his previous role to Dowdle maintaining a featured-back workload are on the table here. The Jets have allowed a middling 4.3 yards per carry behind a well above-average 1.26 yards allowed before contact per attempt, with the 130.0 yards allowed per game heavily influenced by the 30.5 rush attempts per game they have faced (second most behind only the Bengals).
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
Second-year wide receiver Jalen Coker got in another full practice Wednesday after participating in full in each practice last week before ultimately being held out in Week 6. I would expect he returns to the lineup in Week 7, and I would also expect him to immediately serve as the primary slot receiver over Hunter Renfrow. The previous four games has seen the Panthers shift to heavier rates of 12-personnel, something that is likely to suppress Coker’s overall snap rate in his season debut. Xavier Leggette has been held to an 80% snap rate or fewer in all four active games this season, leaving only McMillan in a near every-down role in the offense considering Sanders is also expected to return from a three-game absence. Even if Sanders doesn’t return after a limited showing in practice Wednesday, Tommy Tremble peaked at a 76% snap rate in the three games without Sanders. McMillan has accounted for a modest 22.4% target share and 0.23 TPRR as the “alpha” in a low-pass-volume offense, leaving little to love through the air on paper.
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