Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- RB Rico Dowdle once again started preparations with an absence, missing Wednesday’s practice with the same quad injury he has dealt with for two weeks.
- WR Drake London was not spotted at the early portions of practice on Wednesday due to an illness. He should be good to go come Sunday.
- London has been nothing short of elite with Michael Penix under center this season, and he gets a further boost to his underlying metrics via the heavy Cover-3 rates deployed by the Panthers.
- These two teams deploy the most (Falcons) and third most (Panthers) Cover-3 this season, effectively forcing opponents to march the field while limiting explosives.
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How CAROLINA Will Try To Win ::
The Panthers now rank dead last in pass rate over expectation (PROE) after a string of six games in which they were over two standard deviations below neutral four times. Since Week 4 and with Bryce Young healthy for the entirety of the game (Week 5, 6, 9, and 10), the team has averaged just 25 pass attempts per game against 31.5 team rush attempts per game, with three of those games being wins. This is now a team that would prefer to shield Young, who has vastly underperformed his expectations for all but the second half of his sophomore campaign, if they can help it. Their defense has also turned a corner of late, holding three of their previous four opponents to 17 points or fewer. We have to take that with a slight grain of salt, as those opponents were the Saints, a struggling Packers team, and the Jets. Suffice to say, the Panthers intend to keep things slow-paced, methodical, and on the ground for as long as they are allowed to.
Dowdle has now assumed the lead back role for the Panthers four times this season (Weeks 5, 6, 9, and 10). In those games, he has averaged 27.75 opportunities per game, seen 21 opportunities or more in every game, and scored 31.1 DK points or more in three of four, averaging 29.7 DK points per game in that sample. Another evolution for the Panthers as the season has progressed is an increase in 12-personnel utilization after starting the season playing primarily from 11-personnel, which makes sense considering how many combined games have been missed by Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker (eight). Of note for this backfield is the fact 562 of Dowdle’s 572 yards in the four games where he operated as the lead back have come on first or second down, while he averages a robust 6.42 yards per carry on totes on first down in that span. The key for this team is to stay ahead of the chains to refrain from long down-and-distance situations. The Falcons have allowed a robust 4.5 yards per carry on first down and 5.07 yards per carry overall since their Week 5 bye, while the matchup in the trenches yields a top-five on-paper spot for the Panthers considering a robust 2.28 net-adjusted yards allowed before contact per attempt.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
The expected snap-rate bump for second-year receiver Coker materialized in Week 10, although it came in a loss to the Saints. I would expect the Panthers to start the game with a heavy base, focused on 12-personnel on early downs. Rookie Tetairoa McMillan then becomes the only pass catcher we can expect a near every-down role from, with Legette, Coker, Tommy Tremble, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Mitchell Evans all playing package roles for as long as the Panthers either keep the game close or play with a lead, and avoid long down-and-distance situations. Although McMillan handily leads the teams in most underlying metrics, he has seen double-digit targets only twice and has failed to amass more than 10 looks in a game this season, leaving this team largely bereft of difference-making pass catchers for fantasy purposes. Furthermore, Young has not attempted more than 30 passes in a game since Week 2. That remains highly unlikely to change here.
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