Game Overview ::
By >> Mike johnson
- This is a matchup between two teams near the top of their conference but who have rivals nipping at their heels.
- Both of these teams have been living in close games all season, with 20 of their 26 combined games being decided by one score.
- Denver has been leaning on the pass more in recent weeks since the injury to J.K. Dobbins, ranking second in the league in pass rate over expectation over the last four weeks.
- Packers WR Christian Watson has been dominant since returning but has his toughest matchup of the season this week.
- Denver’s wide receiver and tight end usage continues to change on a weekly basis making them very difficult to predict.
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How green bay Will Try To Win ::
The Packers had a huge win last week at home against the Bears to take the lead in the NFC North and move into the 2-seed in the NFC. After a mid-season lull in which they lost ugly games to the Panthers and Eagles, while barely beating the Giants, we have seen Green Bay rally the troops and become a clear contender. The Packers have won four straight games, including the last two in convincing fashion over division rivals Detroit and Chicago. Their remaining schedule after this week features a road game against the Bears, followed by hosting the Ravens, before ending the season in Minnesota. All of those games will be difficult and this Green Bay team that plays close games seemingly every week will be in for some battles over the next month.
The Packers are throwing the ball at a higher rate this season than they have in past years, but are still somewhat guarded and like to “pick their spots” in terms of when they are aggressive. Lead running back Josh Jacobs has dealt with some injury issues throughout the season, but appeared to be back to himself last week with a big workload in that huge divisional game. However, Jacobs was unable to practice Wednesday or Thursday due to his lingering knee issue and his status is now in question for this week, with head coach Matt LaFleur saying “we’ll see” on Thursday in regards to the availability of Jacobs. If Jacobs were to miss, the Packers would lean heavily on backup Emanuel Wilson, who handled 30 touches against Minnesota the last time Jacobs was inactive. Considering the status of Jacobs and the fact that the Packers play the Bears again next week, it would be safe to expect Wilson have a larger role in this game even if Jacobs is able to play. In any regard, the Broncos run defense allows the fewest yards per carry in the league and ranks fourth in run defense DVOA, while Green Bay still has some offensive line injuries to overcome. It is fair to expect the Packers will have to work very hard for every yard in this matchup.
This leaves a situation where Green Bay may have to move the ball through the air, which isn’t a great spot to be in against an elite Denver secondary. The Broncos play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league and their perimeter cornerback duo of Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss has been playing phenomenal football all season. Christian Watson has been the top option in recent weeks, but this matchup does not bode well for him or Romeo Doubs on the outside. After those two, the Packers are rotating a lot of players and mixing up formations and personnel groupings. Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden returned last week, while Dontayvion Wicks has been playing very well when given opportunities. Expect the Packers to throw the ball at a higher rate than usual in this matchup, but do so in a conservative way and spread the ball around. Ultimately the Packers are likely to be content protecting the ball and moving methodically on offense, betting on their defense doing the same thing to Denver and trying to win a close one in the fourth quarter.
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