Game Overview ::
By Mike johnson >>
- Green Bay running back Josh Jacobs is back to full strength for the first time in several weeks.
- The Packers ended the season on a four game losing streak and have lost multiple key players throughout the season to injury.
- Chicago wide receiver Rome Odunze has missed the last few games, but practiced in full on Thursday and is expected to play.
- These teams split the season series at one game apiece, with both games being decided on the final possession.
- Packers quarterback Jordan Love will return to the lineup after missing the last two and a half games with a concussion.
How green bay Will Try To Win ::
Green Bay lost its last four games to end the regular season after holding a 9-3-1 record through Week 14 and momentarily sitting as the #2 seed in the NFC. They led in the second half in Denver before star edge rusher Micah Parsons tore his ACL. The Packers went on to lose that game 34-26, and that was just the start of their worries. The following week, they faced Chicago with the division on the line, and quarterback Jordan Love suffered a first-half concussion. Green Bay still led that game most of the way, but a couple of late defensive mishaps, along with a botched onside kick recovery, led to a stunning Bears comeback. Green Bay then lost to backup QB Tyler Huntley of the Ravens and got stampeded by Derrick Henry for over 200 rushing yards and four touchdowns, before shutting down their key players to rest during last week’s game in Minnesota. The Packers also lost star tight end Tucker Kraft, who was playing as well as anyone at his position in the league through the first half of the year, to a torn ACL in Week 8 and has battled injuries at the wide receiver position and offensive line all year, while Josh Jacobs spent most of November and December battling ailments. All of this is to put things in context that Green Bay has been reeling recently and is not the team that built up that great record to start the season.
Green Bay is one of the most run-centric offenses in the league, and most of their concepts are built around the idea of a consistent running game putting them ahead of the sticks and building things out from there. The Packers play a relatively methodical style of offense and milk the play clock as they identify blitzes and coverages to maximize their ability to get into the correct play on each down. While this obviously has its advantages, it also results in defenses being fresh, having plenty of time to substitute, and having time to counter and alter their calls when they see the Packers adjusting – resulting in a cat and mouse game at the line of scrimmage quite often. Their methodical approach and run-based game plan can lead to lower scoring games at times, but they are also a team that has some aggressive tendencies. Jordan Love ranked in the top-5 in intended air yards per pass attempt among NFL quarterbacks with over 10 starts for the third straight season, a sign of his willingness to throw down the field on his sometimes limited pass attempts. Head coach Matt LaFleur is also very willing to be aggressive in going for it on fourth down in opponents’ territory, a strategy that has been huge for the team in some spots and came back to bite them in others. Most of his decisions follow the correct analytical approach in this area, but it is interesting and curious because of how conservative he is with some of these other concepts that he is so aggressive on fourth down.
The Packers passing offense has been surprisingly elite, ranking 4th in the NFL in DVOA despite being a relatively low volume unit that ranked 27th in pass attempts this season. They actually led the league in that metric prior to Love’s injury in the last matchup with the Bears and have accomplished this high efficiency without arguably their top weapon (Tucker Kraft) for the last ten weeks. Green Bay’s defense has been struggling in recent weeks, and they are likely to enter this game expecting to need to put up a bigger number to beat the Bears than how this game played out last time, which was largely influenced by the weather. The Packers also are facing a Bears defense that ranks last among NFL playoff teams in yards per play allowed and second to last in DVOA, ahead of only the 49ers. Green Bay’s wide receivers are healthy again, and Josh Jacobs is practicing in full and reportedly feels “by far the best he has in weeks” for this great matchup. The Packers should implement their usual game plan with a familiar and relatively weak defensive opponent on the other side. Look for Green Bay to be aggressive early to try to take control of the game flow and get the Bears away from their own running game, with Jacobs as the focal point and a dynamic passing game built around play action concepts and attacking the Bears in the middle of the field and deep through the air.
