Game Overview ::
By Mike johnson >>
- The Lions are coming off a devastating home loss to the Steelers, which left them with slim playoff hopes. They must win both remaining games and get some help to have a chance.
- Minnesota is likely to have undrafted rookie Max Brosmer starting at quarterback in this game.
- The Vikings have a 7-8 record and can still finish above .500 despite all the problems they have had this season.
- Detroit QB Jared Goff has been surprisingly effective against Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores in recent matchups.
How detroit Will Try To Win ::
The Lions offense struggled in their Week 16 loss to the Steelers as their running game was effectively shut down early, and they ended up throwing the ball at an incredibly high rate. Jared Goff threw 54 passes and was sacked three times, while running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for only 11 rushes – all of which came in the first half!! The game was tied 10-10 at halftime, and the Steelers started the second half with a long drive that ended with a fumble deep in Lions territory. The Lions then took a safety and Pittsburgh made a field goal on the ensuing drive. The Lions followed by going three and out, then the Steelers broke off a long run to go ahead by 12-points early in the 4th quarter. At that point, it was foot on the gas for Detroit as they tried to get back in the game and nearly won, but were thwarted by a couple of questionable calls on the final possession. The point of all this is the box score tells one story, but having that crazy high pass rate was a function of the game script playing out in a fluky way, not something the Lions did by design. The Lions season is on the line this week, as they must win both remaining games to have any chance at the playoffs, and their whole identity was built around being a hard nosed and physical team. Expect them to trend back towards that this week.
The Vikings once again boast a strong defense, ranking 6th in the NFL in defensive DVOA and being a well-schemed unit that can give teams fits at times. The Lions offense is obviously very good, however, and Jared Goff has had success in recent matchups. Goff has completed over 67% of his passes against the Vikings in six straight matchups and has averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt over the course of the last four times he has seen this Vikings defense. Minnesota is an aggressive and blitz-heavy team, while Goff excels against the blitz and is good at getting the ball out of his hands quickly. His primary “blitz beater” is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who excels at getting quick separation and finding holes in opposing coverages. ARSB is coming off a game in which he struggled against a physical and man-heavy coverage scheme of the Steelers, but he should operate as the engine of the offense against this Vikings team that plays a high rate of zone coverages. The team’s usage has centered around ARSB, Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs in recent weeks. That being said, last week we saw receivers Kalif Raymond and Isaac TeSlaa step up as Pittsburgh took away some of the primary options. We can also expect the team to get David Montgomery a few more touches this week after his usage has been very low recently. The Vikings rank 15th in run defense DVOA, compared to 5th in pass defense DVOA. The effectiveness of Goff in this matchup will also be tied to their ability to generate a threat on the ground to keep Minnesota’s defense honest, which means we should expect a relatively balanced approach as the Lions try to save their season.
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