XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 3 wraps up with the Lions visiting the Ravens for a massive 54.5 total game (sure wish this one was on the main slate) with Baltimore favored by 4.5. The Ravens have started the season off strong on offense, scoring 40 and 41 points, while the Lions were absolutely stymied by the Packers elite defense before putting up 52 points on the Bears last week. Both of these teams boast elite offenses (they were also ranked 1st and 3rd in points per game last year). We should see some fireworks.
BALTIMORE
On Baltimore’s side, Derrick Henry absolutely smashed Buffalo for 169 yards and 2 scores before being bottled up by the Browns elite run defense last week. The Lions have been middle of the pack in run defense efficiency this season, but few teams are able to stop the Ravens rushing attack, given that they have to cover both Henry and Lamar Jackson, and if they sell out to stop that, Lamar will pick them apart deep. As a back who doesn’t catch passes, Henry’s floor is always a little on the scary side, but his ceiling is one of the highest in the game. RB2 Justice Hill is playing a lot of snaps but not seeing a lot of work so far, with just 10 touches in two games. We know, though, that snap count is the most predictive stat when it comes to running back production, so we should expect better things ahead for Hill. At $2,800, he represents a reasonable value option with a solid floor on a slate that has primarily volatile cheap options.
One other thing to keep an eye on is that Lamar Jackson has only rushed 8 times in two games so far after averaging close to 10 carries per game over the last two seasons. I don’t think he’ll end quite this low, but we could be seeing the Ravens start to shift things a bit as Lamar gets older in order to try and protect him, similarly to what we tend to see with other running QBs as they age. It’s not something I would put much weight on for this game, but something to watch as we go forward.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, oh man. The Ravens just spread it around so much. Last week, they scored 4 passing touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins had one, Devontez Walker had two, and Tylan Wallace had one. That’s four passing scores to guys who all played 50% or fewer of the snaps (Walker has played 13 total offensive snaps so far this season), while Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews all came up dry. Touchdown variance is a bitch. Flowers, however, saw a whopping 11 targets on just 29 Lamar dropbacks, giving him an insane (and unsustainable) 42.6% target share on the season. This won’t continue, but he’s the clear WR1 and the best bet for dependable volume on a modest passing volume offense. $8,400 looks like a very nice price for Flowers given his lion’s share of the Ravens passing attack. Past that, who even knows? Bateman’s on the field the most, though he’s never been a prolific target earner, but $4k is a very enticing price. He’s a volatile option but probably at least $1k too cheap. Hopkins saw his snap rate collapse last week, likely due to the game quickly looking non-competitive, but I think he’ll play more as the season goes on, and in competitive games, which this should be. He’s no longer as explosive as he was in his prime but he’s still looked like a solid option so far with some nice long catches of 29 and 41 yards. I prefer Bateman at a cheaper price, but Hopkins is fine. Walker and Wallace are hold your nose and pray dart throws.
At tight end, poor Mark Andrews is starting the season off really slow with just 4 targets in two games, for a total of…wait for it…7 receiving yards. Andrews is now 30 years old and his days of 8+ target games and breaking 100 receiving yards are probably behind him, but let’s remember people wrote him off after a slow start to last season as well, and then he had 11 receiving touchdowns in the season’s final 12 weeks, only failing to find the end zone twice. His profile looks more volatile than in the past, but I wouldn’t put much stock at all into two games, and I think he’s significantly underpriced at $4,400 (he’s normally in the $6k – $8k range in Showdowns). I want a lot of him. TE2 Charlie Kolar is a better punt option than the rotational wide receivers, as he’s on the field a lot more, but he’s still thin, as this is just a very low volume offense behind Flowers. At $600, he’s definitely in my pool, though, and he’s my favorite of any of the real Baltimore cheapies.
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