XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 11 kicks off with the Jets visiting the Patriots for a 43.5 total game in which New England is favored by a massive 13.5 points. This feels not unreasonable, frankly, as the Patriots are 8-2 with Drake Maye playing at a near-MVP level, while the Jets are 2-7, just traded two defensive starters, and now Garrett Wilson is hurt again. Oh, and the Jets haven’t named their starting quarterback. Yikes.
NEW ENGLAND
On the Pats side, Rhamondre Stevenson returned to practice this week and is currently listed as questionable, which would throw the backfield into some confusion if he plays. It’s unclear if he will. Terell Jennings is also questionable, and the Pats signed Jonathan Ward to their practice squad, which seems to imply that at least one of these guys misses. TreVeyon Henderson has played incredibly well in Rhamondre’s absence, racking up over 200 scrimmage yards in the last two weeks despite tough matchups while playing 75% and 84% of the offensive snaps, which are the top two most snaps played by any Patriots RB this season. He’s clearly built some trust, and he’s clearly better than Rhamondre, so it seems likely to me that even if Stevenson returns, he takes a back seat to Henderson at this point in the season. But that could be wrong, as Rhamondre has been pretty bad all year, and the Pats still left him in the lead back role until he got hurt. And even if it’s right, Rhamondre could still soak up more RB2 work than Jennings has in the last couple of weeks. If Rhamondre is out, Henderson looks like a total smash play as a huge home favorite who also has some passing game chops. If Rhamondre is in, Henderson is still viable, just riskier. Rhamondre himself is basically unplayable as anything except a highly contrarian GPP dart throw (unless we get some word from beat reporters that gives us clarity as to his role), while Jennings would be playable as an RB2 if he’s active and Rhamondre is out.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, Drake Maye has been incredible, but it’s been tough to predict who he brings along with him in a given game. Maye will be the highest owned player in this one, and he deserves to be, but then things get tricky. Stef Diggs is still highly talented, but he’s priced at $9,800, like a WR1 despite only running a route on 71% of Maye’s dropbacks and has just a 22% target share, far below where most ~$10k WRs in Showdown land. Kayshon Boutte returned to a limited practice, and if he plays, it throws more chaos into the Pats WR situation. Boutte is also talented and has 5 touchdowns on the season, but just a 12.5% target share. At $8k, that’s a tough spot to play. Mack Hollins is playing a ton of snaps but has generally not been a major target earner in his NFL career, though in the Pats last three games, he has target counts of 7, 2, and 10; but, in their first seven games, he was averaging exactly 2 targets per game before this surge. Demario Douglas had a huge game in Week 9 with a 4/100/1 line, but on just 24% of the snaps, and then he predictably disappeared again last week with 2 targets. Kyle Williams saw his snaps surge last week to a season-high 56% and caught a 72-yard touchdown, but on just 2 targets. This group has a near-Bills-like level of unpredictability. How I see it is that Diggs is the safest option, and while he’s overpriced, he’s at least consistently earning targets while on the field. My next favorite is probably Hollins, as he has a solid combination of volume and price. Boutte and Douglas are both significantly overpriced, while Williams is playable as a dart throw.
At tight end, Hunter Henry started off the season pretty hot but hasn’t reached double-digit DK points since all the way back in Week 4. There are just so many other pass catchers available on this offense! Since his huge Week 3 against the Steelers, Henry is averaging only about 4 targets per game, but at least the price is solid. At $5,400, he’s priced around Hollins, and I would lean Henry over Hollins (especially with TE2 Austin Hooper almost certain to miss with a concussion). Jack Westover will take over TE2 duties, but he’s been a blocker so far and doesn’t have a target yet on the year – he’s a desperation punt. This pass catching corps is hard to figure out, and it’s not helped by the fact that the Pats have been averaging under 30 pass attempts per game. Diggs, Henry, and then Hollins are my favorites overall (though Hollins loses the most if Boutte returns, I think), while everyone else is in dart-throw territory.
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