Game Overview ::
By >> Mike johnson
- Jacksonville acquired WR Jakobi Meyers this week as they deal with the loss of Travis Hunter and prepare for Brian Thomas Jr. also potentially missing time.
- The Jaguars offense has struggled early in games this season and has combined for only 9 first half points in their last three games.
- Houston has only allowed one opponent to score more than 20 points in a game.
- Texans WR Nico Collins has over 100 receiving yards in four straight games against the Jaguars.
- Houston will likely be without the services of quarterback C.J. Stroud (concussion) and will turn to Davis Mills as their starter.
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How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
The Jaguars are a confusing team to evaluate and have had some wild swings throughout the 2025 season so far. They have five victories, three of which are against teams with winning records (KC, SF, and CAR). Two of their wins, however, were at home against this Texans team who had injury issues at the time and last week’s nail biter in overtime against the Raiders. Jacksonville also had an ugly loss to the Rams and lost games to the Seahawks and Bengals. Adding it all up, and the Jaguars have been roughly the team that we would expect them to be. Their new head coach, Liam Coen, does a great job and puts his team in position to win. Their defense has been solid and Trevor Lawrence has had struggles that generally keep the Jaguars from being a consistently high end team, but allows them to play with good opponents. Summing it all up, they are good enough to keep things interesting against most good teams, but not good enough to win handily against weaker opponents. This can be seen in the fact that six of eight Jaguars games this season have been decided by one possession.
The Jaguars rank 8th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation and operate at the 10th fastest raw pace in the NFL. Considering the Jaguars have been in mostly close games this year, that raw pace stat is pretty accurate as they have almost always been able to operate at whatever pace they desire. Jacksonville ranks only 24th in yards per play, however, as their offense has struggled with consistency and efficiency all season. Their running game has been slightly above average, but lacked explosiveness most of the year. Meanwhile, their passing game has been inconsistent to put it kindly and will now be without prized rookie WR Travis Hunter and (likely) second year WR Brian Thomas Jr. These absences hurt the likelihood of Jacksonville generating explosive plays, and this is a Texans defense that makes you work for every yard. Houston is the top-ranked defense in DVOA this year, leading the league in pass defense DVOA and ranking a middling 16th in run defense DVOA. Make no mistake, however, about the Texans having a very good run defense. This will be anything but an easy matchup on the ground for the Jaguars, especially without their top vertical threats available to stretch the Houston defense.
Jacksonville is up against a wall in this one, as they are going to struggle mightily to move the ball through the air and Houston will be able to suffocate their running game. The absence of Stroud on the other side of the ball and the fact that this was a low scoring game in the first matchup should allow the Jaguars to have a conservative approach early in this game. Expect a focus on their backfield and running game, with short area passing to wide receivers Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers. Washington will operate as the team’s slot receiver and should be Lawrence’s primary target, while Meyers will play mostly on the perimeter in what is a very tough matchup with Houston’s secondary. The Jaguars will want Lawrence to be careful with the ball, so we may see him tuck and run when things aren’t there more often than normal. In any regard, the Texans defense is likely to keep Jacksonville from creating many explosive plays and the Jaguars will need to convert third downs at a high rate to sustain drives.
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