Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Bears RBs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai both got in limited sessions on Wednesday. It appears as if Swift is ready to return from a one-game absence.
- Bears WRs DJ Moore and Rome Odunze did not practice Wednesday – monitor these situations the remainder of the week.
- Jaxson Dart, since taking over under center for the Giants: 18.6 DK points or more in every start, averaging 23.0 DK points per game, 7.87 DK points on the ground per game, and a 4.04x salary multiplier on his Week 10 salary.
- Ray-Ray McCloud immediately stepped into a featured role for the Giants in his first game, charged with a 91% snap rate and 87.2% route participation, while leading the team with a 97.1% wide route rate.
- These two teams are each in the bottom seven in total yards allowed per game and the bottom five in points allowed per game.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How new york Will Try To Win ::
Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has a rushing score in five of six starts, has accounted for multiple touchdowns in every start, has topped 202 pass yards only once, and has topped 33 pass attempts only once. That should succinctly summarize how this team is trying to win with him under center, with a run-balanced approach designed to shorten games. Dart has been overperforming expectations while giving the ball away only once outside of his three-turnover game against the Saints, of all teams. That has allowed the Giants to stay ahead of the chains at a high frequency with Dart under center. Dart has also been extremely consistent since taking over under center, scoring 18.6 DK points or more in each start while hitting 27.2 or higher in two of six. He has averaged 23.0 DK points per game as the starter, or a 4.04x salary multiplier on his Week 10 salary ($5,700), while averaging 7.87 DK points per game on the ground alone. The Bears have really only faced one hyper-mobile quarterback this season (Jayden Daniels: 10-52 line on the ground), but they did surrender an 8-53 line on the ground to Tyler Huntley. There is legitimate room here for Dart’s rushing upside against the single-high-heavy Bears.
It was Devin Singletary who led the backfield in the first game without Cam Skattebo in Week 9, turning a 56% snap rate into eight carries for 43 yards against the 49ers. He added two targets to his ledger. The bigger picture here is that the backfield was a near even timeshare between him and Tyrone Tracy, as opposed to one back seeing the bulk of the work, as Skattebo had as the lead dog, meaning there isn’t likely to be weekly fantasy value here. The matchup on the ground is a good one against a Bears team allowing the second most yards before contact per attempt (2.58) and the fourth most yards per carry (5.1), which more so gives the Giants more paths to sustained drives and points on the scoreboard than it does raise the fantasy value of either back.
The biggest thing that stood out to me from the Giants last week wasn’t the 11 targets for Wan’Dale Robinson or that Darius Slayton led the team in receiving with 62 yards or that Theo Johnson scored his fifth touchdown in the previous six games, it was that Ray-Ray McCloud immediately stepped into a robust 91% snap rate for a team starved for consistent production at wide receiver. The team already used three standard elevations on Lil’Jordan Humphrey and did not sign him to their active roster, instead elevating McCloud. I expect that to continue into Week 10, meaning there is the potential to get a near-min priced wide receiver, on a week with no clear paths for value (currently), in a near every-down role, against the defense allowing the highest rate of explosive pass plays on the slate. The Bears are a Cover-3-focused defense, against which nobody on the Giants stands out. Robinson (0.37 FP/RR) and Slayton (0.35 FP/RR) understandably lead the team against the primary coverage, but they have been far from elite. Slayton brings the most per-target upside on his 12.9 aDOT against Cover-3 and 13.4 overall aDOT
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