Game Overview ::
By PAPY324 >>
- The Falcons are relatively healthy, with only Edge Leonard Floyd (hamstring) and DL Zach Harrison (knee) missing practice on Wednesday.
- Only RB Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) missed practice on Wednesday for the Patriots.
- Kirk Cousins looked totally washed in Week 8, and if he plays, the Falcons offense will suffer. Michael Penix was limited on Wednesday, but if he returns, he’ll raise the floor of the offense.
- Bijan Robinson had his least opportunities and lowest snap share of the season last week.
- Kyle Pitts is having his best season, but the bar is low when it comes to Pitts’ best season.
- Drake Maye is good at football, but he never throws many passes.
- The Falcons present as a run-funnel defense, and Josh McDaniels has been adaptable with his play calling.
- Stevenson has played over 70% of the snaps in three straight games.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How ATLANTA Will Try To Win ::
The 3-4 Falcons are coming off an embarrassing loss where they weren’t competitive against a 2-6 Dolphins team that looked like they were melting down coming in. The Dolphins defense hadn’t been able to stop anyone, and the Falcons could only muster a sorry 10 points (seven of which were scored in garbage time). Penix has taken a lot of heat for his play, but Cousins is on another level of bad. I’m not sure Cousins was ever an elite talent, but whatever he used to be, he’s not that anymore. That’s not to say that Cousins should get all the blame. The Falcons have been a run-first team (25th in PROE) that plays slowly (30th in situational-neutral pace), and they were facing an opponent who was allowing a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry. Curiously, the coaching staff gave Robinson nine carries on his lowest snap share (60%) of the season. It’s easy to blame game flow, but a closer look makes you question the game plan. The Falcons threw more than they ran on their first two drives, and the game was still 17-3 deep into the third quarter. Robinson fumbled in the red zone on a drive that would’ve cut the lead to seven, and he only touched the ball twice after the fumble. Everyone (including the oddsmakers) anticipated a big game for Robinson based on the way the Falcons had played and the matchup, but all that matters is how the guy calling the plays see things.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
The Patriots have been strong against the run (No. 5 in DVOA) and hurt through the air (28th in DVOA). The Patriots are yet to allow a 50-yard rusher on the season and have been victimized by the pass when teams have stayed away from standout cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Mike Vrabel oversaw a Titans pass-funnel defense for many years and appear to have brought the same scheme to New England. Drake London missed last week with a hip injury, but it appears likely he’ll be available for a game where the Falcons should have an elevated pass rate. The Falcons’ O-line hasn’t been doing them any favors (21st-ranked by PFF). LT Jake Matthews has been holding his own, but the rest of the O-line has underperformed. Vrabel isn’t going to let you beat him on the ground, and after the Falcons couldn’t open holes against the Dolphins, it’s likely that they’ll realize their best shot is through the air. The Falcons are going to throw, and if Cousins starts, they’re going to have a bad time.
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