XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
We have an early Sunday game in Berlin with the Falcons taking on the Colts. This one has a 48.5 total with Indy favored by 7.5, and after being embarrassed by the Steelers in a game in which they scored a season-low 20 points, the Colts have to be looking for a rebound performance offensively.
INDIANAPOLIS
The Colts offense begins with Jonathan Taylor, who insanely has four 3-touchdown games this season. One of the few true bell cow backs in the league, JT has at least 14 touches in every game (And he scored 40.4 DK points in that 14-touch game) while averaging 17.4 carries and 3.2 targets. That’s an average of 20.4 opportunities per game, one of the highest in the league, while playing for the league’s best offense that has scored 32.2 points per game. The role is awesome. The matchup here is nice: the Falcons defense is allowing the fewest passing yards per game at just 158, but they have allowed an above-average 124 rush yards per game. Atlanta is, overall, an above-average defense but not an elite one, and the matchup favors Indy attacking on the ground. Indy is also nearly a touchdown favorite. Everything points to JT being in a really strong spot. Backup running backs Tyler Goodson and Ameer Abdullah are barely playing but can be included in MME player pools as (very) thin punt options.
In the passing game, the Colts offense has been elite, and while the matchup is poor, the Falcons have largely faced below-average passing opponents. The Colts are in another league. Daniel Jones has been legitimately awesome this season (last game notwithstanding), and while in main slate terms the Colts have not generated many tournament-worthy scores because A) they spread the ball around, and B) they often take their foot off the gas later in games, in Showdown we need less ceiling. The prices here are also attractive on their lead guys with Michael Pittman at just $8,400 and tight end Tyler Warren at $7,400. Pittman has been incredibly consistent – he’s the WR6 on the season, and while he’s topped out at 23.5 DK points (decent but not great in main slate terms), he’s also reached at least 14.9 DK points in 7 of 9 games. That may or may not result in him being in optimal lineups depending on the rest of the game, but his five performances of 19.3+ DK points are quite likely to help you. He’s underpriced for his floor, and while his ceiling isn’t that of a true top-end WR1, in Showdown terms, it’s very solid. WR2 Alec Pierce is more boom/bust with a deep receiver profile, and while he’s seen 10 and 13 targets in games this season, every other game is 5 or fewer. He’s a little overpriced thanks to coming off his best game of the season, and this matchup doesn’t really do him any favors. I’m less interested here. WR3 Josh Downs is very talented but only plays in 11 personnel sets – he has a higher floor than Pierce but a lower ceiling. But overall, both of these guys are priced too close to Pittman. Pittman is the clear best play on both a raw points and salary-adjusted basis, but of course, Pierce and Downs still belong in tournament player pools for their ceilings. The Colts have largely abandoned their WR4 role as they’ve been disappointed with guys like Adonai Mitchell (who was traded to the Jets this week) and Ashton Dulin. Both have had extremely low snap counts in competitive games. Dulin or whoever else is active can be used as a punt option, but they are not really a significant part of the offense.
Tight end Tyler Warren is the other top-2 option in this passing game besides Pittman, and he’s also priced really close to Pierce and Downs, which also pushes them down the rankings of play priorities. Warren is legitimately elite but has yet to have a real ceiling game. He has a bunch of solid games, but despite a healthy 20% target share and elite 12 red zone targets, he’s capped out at 18.3 DK points on the season. I still feel confident the real ceiling game is coming, and while I cannot predict exactly when, I can tell you I view Warren as having significantly better floor/ceiling combinations than Pierce and Downs, who he’s priced right next to. TE2 Mo Alie-Cox makes a better punt play than the tertiary wide receivers, as he’s on the field more, but he’s still fairly thin with just 7 targets on the season.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.