XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 15 kicks off with the Falcons visiting the Bucs for a 44.5 total game in which Tampa is favored by 4. We have a plethora of injury situations to deal with, first of all. Drake London has yet to “practice” this week despite the team’s practices only being walkthroughs. That makes it extremely likely he sits, so I’ll assume he’s out. Kyle Pitts is also questionable for the Falcons, but seeing as how he played 92% of the offensive snaps last week and was listed as limited in the walkthroughs, I feel highly confident he’s playing. On the Bucs side of things, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan have both been practicing while on injured reserve. My guess is that Mike Evans plays, and if he does, that means McMillan’s status is pretty meaningless, as he would be, at best, in line for some WR4 snaps (and he might even be behind Tez Johnson). Cade Otton is also listed as questionable and was listed as DNP in both of the team’s walkthroughs thus far. He didn’t leave last week’s game with an injury, so I’m guessing it’s maintenance, but this is the one spot I don’t have a good feeling about. To sum up, on the Falcons, I think London’s out, and Pitts is in. On the Bucs, I think Evans is in, McMillan doesn’t really matter, and Otton is more likely in than out, but I’m something like 60/40 on that spot. Whew.
TAMPA BAY
On the Bucs side of things, Bucky Irving got dinged up last week, and while he returned to the game, he wasn’t all that effective, and he ended up playing just 49% of the snaps, the lowest he’s played in any game this season, including his first game back from a lengthy injury. I have to think the injury played into this, but since he isn’t on the injury report at all now, I think we should treat him as if he’s fine. He handled 17 opportunities last week, which was his lowest of the season but still respectable, and that highlights just how good his role is. The matchup here is neutral, the Bucs are large home favorites, and thus Bucky is a solid on-paper play, especially so if Evans plays, because the Tampa receivers are all negatively impacted by Evans returning (and are priced for life without him) while Bucky isn’t impacted by Evans. The only real risk to Bucky is that Sean Tucker is quite good and Tampa insists on using Rachaad White despite him being very much #notgood, which means even though he’s the lead back, there are two other guys hanging around capable of vulturing him, whereas most running backs only have to deal with 1 backup threat. To me, it’s worth the risk, and I think Bucky has the second-highest overall points projection of any skill position player behind only Bijan Robinson. White and Tucker are dart throws as they somewhat cannibalize each other. I’d prefer playing Tucker because he’s much cheaper, but both will be in my player pool.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, Evans return puts Tampa back at full strength in its receiving corps with him, Emeka Egbuka, and Chris Godwin. That’s an awfully talented group. I’d guess Evans is eased back in a bit as that’s usually what the Bucs do with guys returning from lengthy layoffs, and at $9k, he’s pretty fully priced. I think he still does have ceiling, but it is very risky, leaving him as a pay up to be contrarian option. Egbuka has actually struggled without Evans. Since Week 5, he has only reached double-digit DK points once in eight games (his explosion against Seattle). That’s a fairly small sample size and the kind of adjustment period you’d expect rookie receivers to need, and I think the downsides of having another target earner on the field will be offset for Egbuka by not being the primary focus of the opposing pass defense. His recent struggles have also brought his salary down to the lowest it’s been since Week 1, so I’m on board here (though among guys at the higher end of the salary range, I prefer Bucky).
Next, we come to Godwin, who has been a challenge for me this season. He has been one of my favorite players but it seems like a combination of age and injuries is catching up with him, as he ranks very poorly in predictive metrics such as yards per route run (1.43) and separation score (64th among WRs) – the lowest markets of his career. That’s not to say he can’t have a good game, but at $8,400, he’s kind of spendy given that he’s now essentially the WR3 for Tampa, and his season-high is just over 10 DK points. Of the primary Bucs receivers, for tournaments, I’d rank them as Egbuka, then Evans, then Godwin. Some combination of Jalen McMillan, Tez Johnson, and Sterling Shepard will split the rest of the wide receiver snaps. If McMillan is active, these guys are all thin dart throws, whereas if McMillan is not active, they become at least a little bit more robust. Now, if I’m wrong and Evans misses, that leaves a primary WR trio of Egbuka, Godwin, and then some combo of Tez // McMillan // Shepard, which bumps them all up (duh) and makes Tez more of a value play than a dart throw.
UPDATE: Cade Otton has been listed as doubtful, so he’s almost certainly out. In his absence, Payne Durham should play the majority of the tight end snaps, but he’s mostly a blocker, as is Devin Culp, who should play the TE2 role. Because they’re so cheap they will project decently, and from a point-per-dollar standpoint they’re both viable plays, but I question the ceiling given what is likely to be an extremely limited receiving role …3-5 points sounds nice for $600, but it would take a fairly rare runout for that to result in the player landing in a winning tournament lineup. For me, this just bumps up the Bucs wide receivers, mainly Godwin, who runs similar shorter area routes to what Otton will be leaving behind.
At tight end, Cade Otton has had a tough time putting up any sort of relevant fantasy scores this season. He has yet to score a touchdown and has just 4 red zone targets on the year. Every one of the wide receivers talked about has at least 4 red zone targets, even Evans, who has only played in four games. Otton is not a major per-target yardage threat and needs either a lot of targets or a touchdown to find a ceiling, and with a lot of wide receiver target competition and no real red zone role, his odds of getting either of those outcomes are fairly slim.
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