Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell (hamstring) upgraded to a full practice Thursday and appears to be tracking to suit up in Week 7 against the Vikings.
- The Minnesota QB situation appears to still be in flux, with Carson Wentz practicing in full both days this week (through Thursday) and J.J. McCarthy limited both days. Head coach Kevin O’Connell continues to stress that he wants McCarthy to be back to full strength before returning as the starter, something I don’t know has been exhibited just yet.
- The Vikings averaged 226 yards of total offense per game in J.J. McCarthy’s two starts and 357.67 yards per game in Wentz’s three starts.
- This game carries an immensely wide range of outcomes, dependent on multiple factors (discussed more below).
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::
The Eagles tied with the Buccaneers in scoring in 2024 at 29.0 points per game. After the change in offensive coordinator during the offseason, they are now averaging 23.7 points per game, which marks the third largest dip in scoring from 2024 to 2025 (Ravens and Bengals have a higher drop, but both have played without their All-Pro quarterbacks for most of the season while the Eagles had one of the highest personnel retention on the offensive side of the ball). They have gone from averaging over 366 yards of total offense per game in 2024 to 274.5 in 2025, the third largest drop off in the league (also the Ravens and Bengals). Their offense is broken, and their star wide receivers are beginning to be vocal about it (surprise, surprise). Tackles Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson have vastly underperformed their high pedigree this season, while the continued absence of Landon Dickerson has left the offensive line underperforming in run-blocking metrics. They would also rank near the bottom of the league in PROE were it not for their Week 5 game, in which they had the highest PROE value of any team in any game this season (greater than three standard deviations above neutral against the Broncos). They are also allowing almost six points per game more in 2025 than they did in 2024, which is a higher increase than all but three teams (Bears, Dolphins, and Ravens). That exploration highlights the fact that I don’t know if the Eagles even know how they’re trying to win games yet this season, making them one of only a handful of teams that are still working to find their identity after six weeks.
As mentioned above, the Philadelphia offensive line has really struggled to start the season, blocking to only 1.46 yards before contact per attempt (bottom 10) after leading the league in that metric a season ago. But hey, they still have the tush push, right? RIGHT!? Shout out to them for executing the most hated play in football on four consecutive plays last week. That was fun. The declining play of the offensive line and poor situational play calling from new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo is evident in Saquon Barkley’s metrics this season, with the All-World back rushing to just 3.42 yards per carry with a lowly 4.2% explosive run rate. Sorry, sports fans, but he’s effectively D’Andre Swift this season, if we remove the names and only look at underlying metrics. Harsh remarks aside, this is still one of the most talented backs in the league in a plus matchup against a Vikings team ceding 4.5 yards per carry behind 2.08 yards before contact allowed per carry. He also maintains one of the most robust snap rates at the position, having seen a 79% snap rate or higher in all six games.
The all-around struggles of the offense have quarterback Jalen Hurts averaging just 28.8 pass attempts per game, but for far different reasons than his low 25.7 pass attempts per game in 2024. And since the run game has been so ineffective, opponents have been less likely to play man coverage against them this season (16.7% Cover-1 rate faced), leading to total offensive failure considering Hurts is averaging the fifth-lowest FP/DB against zone this season. No pass-catcher has greater than a 0.23 TPRR or 25.6% target share (both A.J. Brown), with tight end Dallas Goedert leading the team in FP/RR (0.54) because of his five touchdowns (no other player has more than one). In fact, all of Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Goedert are averaging 12.0 and 13.2 XFP/G. For the wide receivers, this ranks them outside the top 24 at the position, while Goedert ranks third at tight end due to his hefty red zone role through six games. The matchup is poor for the wide receiver against a Vikings defense holding opponents to the fewest DK points per game (20.0, 20% fewer than the second-place Broncos), while Goedert sees a more neutral matchup on paper.
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